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This powerful tool leverages machine learning to combine multiple market factors and provide traders with precise forecasts of future price movements over 5 and 20-day horizons.
Think of it as your personal roadmap for navigating short- to medium-term volatility leveraging a data driven approach.Instead of relying on lagging indicators, the Swing Model gives you predictive levels and quantified probabilities, refreshed daily.
The Swing Trading Model Indicator: An Overview
The Swing Trading Model Indicator is designed to give traders an edge by predicting key price levels based on a sophisticated algorithm that integrates momentum, options flow, market positioning, gamma, and delta. By analyzing these critical factors, the model provides a comprehensive view of market dynamics, helping traders better manage their trading roadmap.
Check out our Video Tutorial on how to use the Swing Trading Model.
Key Components
The Swing Trading Model Indicator consists of three main components that work together to provide a detailed market forecast:
Upper Band:
The Upper Band represents the highest price level the model predicts within the specified time horizon (5 or 20 days).
It helps traders identify potential resistance levels and gauge the upper limits of price movements.
This component is crucial for setting target prices, reversal zones or planning exit strategies.
Lower Band:
The Lower Band indicates the lowest price level forecasted by the model.
It provides insight into potential support levels and helps traders identify entry or exit points.
This band is essential for managing risk and setting stop-loss orders to protect investments.
Risk Trigger:
The Risk Trigger is a critical component that alerts traders when the price approaches levels that could signal significant market movements.
It helps traders stay vigilant and prepared to act swiftly in response to potential market shifts.
This feature enhances risk management by providing early warnings of possible market volatility and helps define risk and time entries more accurately.
Swing Trading Model 14
How to use the Swing Trading Model Indicator
The Swing Model is both a Volatility and Directional Indicator.
Everyday we will provide the Indicator Level that can be an Upper or Lower Band and the Risk Trigger
When a Lower Band (Green) is present the indicator forecast the lowest price that the asset could reach in 5 or 20 days. This is based on the machine learning algorithm behind the calculation.
When an Upper Band (Red) is present the indicator forecast the highest price that the asset could reach in 5 or 20 days.
The Risk Trigger is a key point that could serve as support or resistance or an inflection point for an upside or downside momentum.
Options Sellers can use these levels to place their strike when doing Iron Condors, Credit Spreads or more advanced strategies.
Directional Traders can use these levels to plan their roadmap and use them to look for direction, momentum or manage the risk.
The Swing Model only gives you ONE directional bias each day.
If you see a Lower Band, the model is Bullish.
If you see an Upper Band, the model is Bearish.
How It Works
The Swing Trading Model Indicator uses a machine learning algorithm that continuously analyzes and learns from historical and real-time market data. By incorporating momentum, options flow, market positioning, gamma, and delta, the model identifies patterns and trends that are not immediately visible through traditional analysis methods.
Momentum: Measures the strength and speed of price movements, indicating the underlying market sentiment.
Options Flow: Tracks the activity in options markets, providing insights into traders’ expectations and potential price shifts.
Market Positioning: Analyzes the aggregate positions of market participants to understand the overall market sentiment.
Gamma and Delta: Key derivatives metrics that offer deeper insights into options pricing and potential future price movements.
We then provide backtesting results of those levels over the past few weeks and months.
Components of the Swing Trading Model
On the right side of the chart you see current Levels for the next 5 or 20 days.
Swing Trading Model 15
On the left side of the chart you see the historical performance of these levels. This part is also what is behind the backtesting results.
We identify success based on these criteria:
If Lower Band is present and Close Price of the asset in 5 or 20 days is above LB then the model is successful
If Upper Band is present and Close Price of the asset in 5 or 20 days is below UB then the model is successful
Swing Trading Model 16
We also provide the Success Rate and Backtesting Results of the model for the past few months. At the top of the chart you see the results. Here we see: Risk Trigger Success Rate, UB, LB and Swing Model Success Rate.
Swing Trading Model 17
How to use the Swing Trading Model
This model can be used by Swing Traders, Options Traders in particular options sellers, futures traders as well as position traders. The Swing Model is available on Stocks, ETFs, Indices and Crypto. For futures traders we can convert the swing levels to our future contract. For example we can convert SPX Levels into ES and so on. We will go over this shortly.
Directional Traders
The idea behind the Swing Trading Model is to forecast where price is likely to be in 5 days based on a strong directional bias.
If the model shows a Lower Band, it’s forecasting that price has room to move higher—so the bias is bullish.
If it shows an Upper Band, it’s forecasting downside—so the bias is bearish. This means as a directional trader, your job becomes simpler: trade with the bias.
It’s a clean roadmap that takes the guesswork out of direction and lets you focus on execution and risk management.
Options Sellers
The model forecasts price zones that are unlikely to be breached within 5 or 20 days. Options Sellers can use the levels as “do not touch” zones to anchor your option strategies.
When a Lower Band is present:
Market bias is bullish
Higher probability of success with Put Credit Spreads
When a Upper Band is present:
Market bias is bearish
Favor Call Credit Spreads or bearish premium strategies
Ideal for structuring:
Credit Spreads (put or call depending on bias)
Iron Condors (using both bands as wings)
Butterflies / Broken Wing Butterflies (centered around Risk Trigger or midpoints)
Futures Traders
Futures Traders can use the model to identify high-probability inflection zones across key contracts (ES, NQ, RTY, CL, GC, BTC, etc.).
Each day gives a single directional bias:
Lower Band = Bias is bullish → look for long setups on pullbacks
Upper Band = Bias is bearish → look for short setups on rallies
Benefits for Traders
Enhanced Decision-Making:
The model’s forecasts provide traders with clear, data-driven insights into future price movements.
Traders can make more informed decisions regarding entry and exit points, ultimately improving their trading strategies.
Improved Risk Management:
By identifying potential support and resistance levels, traders can better manage their risks.
The Risk Trigger component ensures that traders are alerted to potential market volatility, allowing them to take preemptive action.
Strategic Planning:
With predictions spanning 5 and 20-day horizons, traders can plan their strategies more effectively.
The model supports both short-term and medium-term trading plans, offering flexibility in approach.
Resources
We have created a series of videos to show how to leverage the Swing Trading Models in Practice:
The Swing Trading Model Indicator is a game-changer for traders seeking to leverage advanced analytics and machine learning for better market forecasts. By combining momentum, options flow, market positioning, gamma, and delta, this tool provides accurate predictions of key price levels over 5 and 20-day horizons.
With its Upper Band, Lower Band, and Risk Trigger components, traders gain a comprehensive, actionable view of the market, empowering them to trade more effectively and manage risk efficiently.
Join us today
Access daily Market Research and our interactive Dashboard. Make better trading decisions.
