What Is the Expected Move?

The expected move represents the market’s forecast for how much the SPX might change over a given time frame, typically with a 68% confidence interval (1 standard deviation). It helps traders gauge potential risk, select option strikes, and construct trades like straddles, strangles, and spreads.

Let’s walk through two methods applied to the week of June 24–28, 2025, with SPX currently trading at 5,967.84.

Method 1: VIX-Based Expected Move

This statistical approach uses the VIX (Volatility Index), which measures implied volatility of SPX options, as a proxy for market uncertainty.

Inputs:

  • SPX Spot: 5,967.84
  • VIX: 20.62
  • Time to Expiry: 4 trading days

Using a standard formula that translates volatility into a price range, we calculate the 1σ (68% confidence) move:

Expected Move = SPX × (VIX / √252) × √Days Remaining

Plugging in the numbers:

  • VIX = 20.62 → 0.2062
  • √252 ≈ 15.87
  • √4 = 2

Expected move = 5,967.84 × (0.2062 / 15.87) × 2 ≈ ±94.05 points

VIX-Based Range:

→ Lower Bound: 5,967.84 − 94.05 = 5,873.79

→ Upper Bound: 5,967.84 + 94.05 = 6,061.89

This model gives us a symmetrical range of ±94 points where the SPX is statistically expected to stay by Friday.

Method 2: Options Market-Based Expected Move

While the VIX model uses an index-level abstraction, this method derives the expected move directly from SPX options prices for the expiration date in question — in this case, June 27, 2025.

Inputs:

  • SPX Spot: 5,967.84
  • Implied Volatility (IV): 18.61%
  • Days to Expiry: 4
  • Extracted from the SPX options chain

This method typically uses the price of the at-the-money (ATM) straddle or a volatility-based approximation.

Options-Based Move:

Implied move = SPX × (IV / √252) × √Days

= 5,967.84 × (0.1861 / 15.87) × 2

≈ ±115.86 points

Options Market Range:

→ Lower Bound: 5,967.84 − 115.86 = 5,851.98

→ Upper Bound: 5,967.84 + 115.86 = 6,083.70

Side-by-Side Comparison

SPX Expected Moves Explained - options
SPX Expected Moves Explained 5

The options market is pricing in more movement than the VIX-based model, suggesting market participants anticipate greater volatility than historical models predict.

Why the Discrepancy?

The differences between the two methods are not unusual and can offer important clues:

  1. Event Risk: If earnings, CPI, or Fed-related announcements are due, option traders may bid up IV in short-dated contracts, anticipating sharp moves.
  2. Gamma Positioning: Large open interest in SPX options can amplify dealer hedging flows. Traders monitoring gamma exposure (GEX) may expect higher volatility.
  3. Skew and Vega Premiums: When calls or puts trade with significant skew (IV disparity), the options-based move may reflect trader sentiment rather than raw probability.

Educational Note: Use Cases in Trading

Understanding both models enhances your trading toolkit. For example:

  • Range Trades: If you’re selling iron condors or calendars, you want price to stay within the expected move. If options pricing forecasts a wider range than VIX, skew your strikes accordingly.
  • Directional Trades: A bullish trader might buy calls outside the expected move range, betting on a breakout. Knowing the projected range helps frame risk/reward.
  • Event Hedges: Ahead of CPI or FOMC, compare the implied move vs. VIX to decide whether protection is overpriced or underpriced.

Conclusion

Expected move modeling is a critical component of modern trading. While the VIX-based model offers a clean statistical baseline, the options market model reflects real-money sentiment, skew, and liquidity. Used together, they form a robust way to size positions, manage expectations, and identify mispriced opportunities.

For traders of the SPX or any underlying with liquid options, checking both calculations weekly can offer an informational edge — especially in a market where volatility can shift quickly and unpredictably.