Nvidia Options Data ahead of earnings

Nvidia Options Data: We start the week with a short analysis on NVDA which took just 15 minutes.

Nvidia’s stock has surged 31% in the past twelve days, and options activity suggests that the trend might not be over yet. Nvidia’s market value has increased by over $750 billion since August 7, driven by strong AI-related revenue growth and increased earnings forecasts in the tech sector. Analysts forecast a potential 9% earning move. 

Net GEX Chart

Call options are outpacing puts, indicating bullish sentiment. We start by looking at our Net GEX Chart. The Call Resistance Level is at $130. 

Option Matrix

Next we look at the Option Matrix. We can see that 18% of GEX expires this week. We also see a large change in GEX of 23 million for the weekly expiration from Thursday.

Options SKEW

Then we can look at the Skew and let’s look at the 0DTE Skew. This is the Skew for the next expiration of 08/30. The current 25D skew indicates a growing call bias, which has been tracking the rising prices for some time. 

This increasing call buying pressure can force market makers to buy the underlying asset, amplifying upward momentum. We observed similar market dynamics during the GME run.

Swing Trading Model

Then we look at the Swing Model. Here we see the Swing Model from 08/14. We see a Lower Band with a level of $107 and a Risk Trigger of $128. On Friday the stock closed at $129.

Now let’s look at the updated model from Friday. The Lower Band has moved up to $118 and the Risk Trigger is $140.