This week’s big-bank earnings (JPM, BAC, and WFC) delivered a clear message: the core business remains healthy, customers are still spending and borrowing, and banks are positioning themselves for 2026 even if interest rates continue to drift lower.

The conversation is shifting from “can banks grow earnings?” to “what could disrupt the setup?”—with costs, regulation (especially credit card rules), and the pace of rate cuts emerging as the main swing factors to watch.

Positive (what’s going well)

  • Banks earned solid profits and showed they can perform even in a changing rate environment.
  • Customers are still active (spending, using cards, businesses moving money), which supports revenue.
  • They’re investing in technology and efficiency to improve service and cut manual work over time.

Negative (what’s not going great)

  • If interest rates keep falling, banks may earn less on lending, which can slow profit growth.
  • Costs are rising in places (tech investment, staffing, restructuring), which can offset revenue gains.
  • Some areas are still competitive, meaning banks may have to pay more to keep deposits or win customers.

Risks (what could surprise the market)

  • Economic slowdown: more missed payments → higher loan losses.
  • New rules/political decisions: especially around credit card rate caps, which could reduce credit availability.
  • Deposits shifting elsewhere: customers moving money to higher-yield alternatives could pressure bank funding.

JPM turns Bearish

JPM is turning bearish and the options market is shifting into defense mode. The Option Score dropped to 0 (very low) while the Gamma condition turned negative, which usually means traders are buying more downside protection and hedging can accelerate selloffs.

That lines up with the recent price roll-over, suggesting weaker support and higher risk of continued downside in the near term.

bank earnings
Bank Earnings Kick off the Season 8

MenthorQ Score for Trend Confirmation

The Q-Score data for JPM shows a significant deterioration in all components. Momentum has dropped sharply from a strong 5 to a weak 2, indicating a loss of trend strength. Seasonality is strongly negative, suggesting a bearish historical headwind. The Options Score is at the lowest level, reflecting bearish options market positioning. 

The options market score was moderately bullish earlier with scores around 4, reflecting some positive positioning. However, the score dropped sharply to 0 on 2026-01-13, signaling a bearish shift in options market positioning.

We can use this change as a factor for our strategy to confirm our trend or direction or as an early warning signal like in this example.

Bank Earnings Kick off the Season - qscore JPM
Bank Earnings Kick off the Season 9

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