Macro Update – 03/10/2025

[00:00:00.05] - Speaker 1
It's all right. Welcome team. Welcome back and good morning. Tim, let me know if you can hear us.

[00:00:42.26] - Speaker 2
Yes, good morning.

[00:00:45.10] - Speaker 1
So last week was very, very intense, volatile. This morning we are also in a very volatile day. So we're gonna start the day with our macro update. Also for European customers the time difference has changed. So we are. There's been like a time difference. In the US now it's only five hours. So just to know that the market will open one hour earlier. So be prepared for that. But yeah, I'll pass it on to you Tim. And let's go into the details of the presentation.

[00:01:22.06] - Speaker 2
Yes, exactly. Yeah. Good morning everyone and congratulations. If you managed to show up in time here, that means you have not has the time savings which is one hour as for now. So yeah, let's go straight into it. As always we are looking a little bit over the last week what has happened or what has maybe happened. Not some technical stuff today as well. Then I have little example how to look over a potential trade. This time it's about TLT, the 20 year bond ETF from us and yeah some general stuff that you yeah should watch in markets right now because something has a little bit changed. I mean if you have charts opened it's already another Monday that we all will open in the reds with features like down over 1.2%. The other stuff in the world is pretty good actually but the US is a little weak. But we'll come later to this. So last week as always here with the ES chart looking over I simply put those shots in here that we can kind of connect some stuff that happens with price action. Also there's a VIX shot below VIX future.

[00:02:49.18] - Speaker 2
But yeah, let's start with it. Last Monday, 3rd of March down day selling. Of course we just had some. Yeah bigger numbers from the Institute of Supply Management. The menu manufacturing PMIs kind of gaging the current state of the manufacturing sector within the US had shown us expansion but slower. The reading was above 50. 50 usually stands for expanding economy. But the problem is prices paid which is a component of those surveys is pretty pretty high. Right. So manufacturing suffers from higher prices. Think of commodity, think of labor, all that stuff warehousing costs. That's a little bit of a problem. Okay. Did you stay? Was kind of flat. You always have sometimes. I mean it's a 15 minute time frame chart. Right. You always have those little bumps in the price action. That's usually on these days if we are hitting a major level and something has to happen over there because of positioning or as the last weeks have shown, some take bombs from our beloved President Mr. Donald Trump, which is a little bit scary for the markets. Later in the slides we can connect stuff like that why it happened that much and that extent.

[00:04:31.10] - Speaker 2
So I can show you a little bit of technical stuff behind but go on with this a little bit Wednesday Service PMI in the US that's the counterpart of the manufacturing pmi. Just showing you what the service industry is saying and how are they doing. Keep in mind the service industry in the US is the biggest contributor for the GDP. It's up to 80%. Yeah. The US is a service nation. I think all of you are pretty aware of it. Numbers have been pretty, pretty good over there. Which means in translation that the US customer is still ready to pay for services and that this sector in the US is still expanding. But the same problem over here. Prices have been pretty high. Right. Also the service industry has to pay prices made rent of course. Yeah. Labor and all this stuff. Warehouse costs. This is pretty high. Okay. First day we had tariff delay news. Right. Caused some algorithmic buying on the shorter time frame. It was quickly reversed later on more we closed with new lows in as future. Most of the people have been waiting and looking for Friday because we had all the non form payrolls.

[00:06:05.06] - Speaker 2
Non from payrolls came in a little bit higher. We had like 150k estimated and the number was like 161 I guess if I remember right. So the first sinister stuff for the last week was kind of avoid on Friday. Right. Because the main reading for this number last week was like yes, if those numbers are coming in pretty cool let's say. Yeah. Below 100 or even negative. This would undermine the current narrative that's kind of baked into the market. And I'm pretty aware that narrative sometimes drives prices but also prices can drive narratives. But with the current administration in the U.S. you all know the Dodge Department and all this stuff, the mass layoffs in government sectors. It's stuff that is. Yeah. Watched pretty pretty well and people are trying to yeah. Get a better view. Diff to us is slipping into a economic slowdown slowly this year and so people will position for this right below I mentioned it. There is a Vix future which is the current contract in March 1st. The bar over there is the 20 area. I just want to highlight this a little bit like 20 is always viewed as.

[00:07:39.00] - Speaker 2
Yeah. The threshold in Vix. Right. Where stuff gets volatile more or less. Yeah. In fact that's just a psychological thing because stuff can also be volatile at 19 or 18 but those features last week with the first day traded pretty pretty high and today ah. Doesn't have it open. Yeah but today volatility fixed on 25 already. Oh 26 actually up 2.8 points. The Vix pictures are doing the same and as of now the VIX front month is yeah pretty pretty high compared to the next month. We have spoke about this last week I guess with the VIX updated a little bit so there's actually some juice baked in in volatility. Right. You can also watch VVX which is wall of fall trading in 116. That's pretty high actually. Okay. So brings us also to this topic with this slide. I wanna. I don't know if you if this is new for you guys but maybe you learn something out of it with this slide. I want to try to yeah. Explain those moves that you are seeing or yeah maybe witnessing and people are longer sitting in front of screens or maybe aware of the fact that the selling that you have seen in like yeah.

[00:09:21.23] - Speaker 2
The last week it does not feel like. Yeah. That the world is going down. Right. I think we can agree on it. If you have really really extended selling pressure and as a wash off intraday you have like three or four hours extended of selling. Right. Elevated volumes but a good trend. Right. If you look at the one hour chart of yes futures last week it looks kind of choppier. Okay. So let's start with the charts. On the left side, the upper left chart is a so called tick chart. It shows you like green is positive, red is negative. Right. It shows you how many stocks are ticking each other on the negative or on the positive side. Right. In terms of prices, what is going on. Usually you can pick out like two or four numbers two on each side to gage distress in selling a little bit. Okay. So that's just a broad view that's nothing really in depth but it helps a little bit to say the trend is really strong or the trend is kind of weak. And on the other chart I marked 800 minus and 800 positive. That's usually a number viewed as a extended selling if it's negative or extended buying if it's positive.

[00:10:58.08] - Speaker 2
And as you can see the last week that's a daily chart. So just a few last red wigs down there are accountable for this view. They are not near as 800. Right. It's yeah really controlled in Yeah. A manner that not speaks panic or chaos. Okay. The same goes for the ad and decline chart that's on the Left side, the lower chart it shows you from the nice stocks which stocks are going up, which stocks are going down. Obviously more stocks are going down. The system behind us is kind of the same, right with the thresholds of 10001200 on the minus side that's usually seen as big selling. And if you look closely I have marked two days where this happens. It was last day in August where we opened Monday after the surprises from the bank of Japan and after this weekend where yeah those carry trades added a little bit pressure onto the market. This was extensive selling pre market, right. Also little bit of start of the cash session. It was revised pretty quickly. But those indications are going down like that. If there is real pressure and you don't have this today, right?

[00:12:30.12] - Speaker 2
So last week or last weeks it's selling but it's controlled, right? It's not like dumping you everything and you, you agree if you want to sell a stock and yeah, you want or you take whatever price the other side gives you. No, it's yeah kind of controlled on the right side that's from the new dashboard for from Mentor Q are volatility scores and also momentum scores. On the left side the lilac and the green lines above is a SPX chart. Simply reason why I brought this up is you have this downtrend in SPX the volatility score is going up. Logically momentum score is kind of flattening out a little bit on the bottom but price action is still going down and it kind of proves the theory that the momentum is there. But yeah, it's, it's kind of weak, right? I mean we had tremendous months in equities and we are not really down like 10 or 15%. So control, sell off. What might cause us a little bit of a problem is liquidity. That's the small chart in the middle. Usually if volatility is high, liquidity is eroding a little bit, right? Gets pulled out of the market.

[00:14:09.18] - Speaker 2
Some market participants we also have mentioned like several times CTAs or well controlled mandates they are not stepping in the market. They are side lighted or hide in other assets. And yeah this causes a little bit of liquidity bleed out. And just remember if you have to trade a little bit of size, especially in futures, you may not can dump all of your position into one trade. You may have to collect for short like sell me 10 or 15e minis over the next hour because you have to sell like several million. You can't do this market right on the bid or on the ask because you may suffer A little bit of slippage which brings you down in your trade already. So you have to collect this stuff and that's sometimes the reason why those markets are pretty, pretty choppy. And as the top of book depth below shows you, the chart is from two years ago. Yes, two years ago 23rd March and it does not looking that good to be honest. Right. It's pretty illiquid. So keep this in mind especially when you are day trading. It's really really easy to get wrong footed right on a technical side.

[00:15:43.14] - Speaker 2
But afterwards your trade is working out because you were short or long but it gets stopped out several times because the trade location was bad or your stop was too small. It's kind of always connected to liquidity a little bit. Speaking of momentum, several stuff we can go over here. Usually the black charts are all from enter queue. I mean they are labeled and the other ones on the bottom are from my trading view. CTA is on the right side here shown in NASDAQ Futures Net short as it looks like this kind of proves all the other stuff you may have read or may have gotten your inbox from Goldman Sachs jvm whoever the puck shows you a CTA model. The M view model says the same funny thing. We kind of reached the areas From October of 23 which was a major bottom in the indices. Right. The chart over here with the white graph is the NASDAQ bottomed out then back in the time. And that's something we may have to watch to be honest because if there's a major turn in the markets or we'll come later to it, why this maybe could happen, why not?

[00:17:17.25] - Speaker 2
Those can flip pretty pretty hard, right? Those CTAs from Net Short to net long maybe. And yeah then they switch positionings and extend a long trade. But as for now they are selling and it looks like they are selling regardless if the index is going up, going down. They just want to reduce exposure. On the right hand side the lower chart are so called market breath. I think it's infamous. Most people are familiar with this stuff and it's. It takes SPX stocks in accounting and it looks pretty weak. Kind of the same we have seen in the middle of 2023 with like 250, 300 stocks are trading above the SMA 200. Of course this shows you there's less participation of market participants. Risk averse, call it like that and we can drill this down a little bit. Those are the other charts above just shows you kind of more granular views because the orange lines are then the SMA5, SMA10, SMA50. Everything is below on a five. The five day time frame it's a little bit more choppy, right? Makes sense. But in the long term it looks pretty, pretty weak from the internals. Brings us to the charts on the right bottom pane.

[00:19:04.08] - Speaker 2
The left one is just a ratio from two ETFs showing you value or growth. That's VTV and VUG. Those are Vanguard ETFs. Value versus growth. This ratio is steeping up pretty, pretty hard on highs from I think it's December, December 24th where we had this little sell off before Christmas. And it just shows you sector performance, right? Let's keep it simple and stupid. Long story short, value stocks aren't that much down in growth. Low pedal stocks like value stocks like Cheap Total or Coca Cola, they are performing a little bit better right than stuff like Tesla, Microsoft, Amazon. Okay so this also shows you the market isn't really in favor of risk right now. And the last chart on the right side, it's kind of the same what is weak, what is strong. But in this example we are showing you a spread of ES futures and set B futures which is the 20 year US treasury future. It shows you kind of the same that bonds are, are in favor right now. They are getting some bids because of risk on, sorry, risk off in equities. Right. So you hide your bid in the bond market a little bit.

[00:20:46.06] - Speaker 2
If we look at the stuff that usually drives bond markets like growth and inflation does not make that really much of sense because as we will see later, inflation uptick is already priced in, bonds are doing good, growth is still there as we have seen from the PMI numbers last week. And bonds are played out of the long. That's usually a sign that those longs are just there because stocks are not doing that good. Okay, the week ahead today 10am consumer inflation expectations minor number. Okay, tomorrow on Tuesday we have the Jones Report. It's usually before NFP last week. I have no idea why they scheduled for tomorrow but it's yeah, labor data wetness day. Of course the big cpi. Many will wait for this. Of course as always on the right hand side the chart is a current chart of CPI inflation swaps and the white one, it's a little bit hard to see I guess but that's yeah the one year inflation swap, it's of course the highest from all of the inflation swaps. And yeah we had previous highs over there. It gets a little bit priced out but it's still pretty elevated.

[00:22:24.14] - Speaker 2
So long story short for the CPI and for those numbers, the market is aware that those numbers are may come in a little bit higher or yeah in the estimate. No one should be wondered about that. But this stuff is driven from the last weeks mainly due to all the terrorist stuff you have in the markets. All the stuff that is going on from the new administration, layoffs and all the stuff it kind of yeah plays a little bit in for this. Okay, so for witness day if numbers are coming in higher from my view market is prepared and it's baked in a little bit in terms of positioning. Tuesday first day, sorry PPI of course, like always after CPI follows the ppi. PPI is the CPI equivalent for the producer side. Right. So if you have business and if you have production going on, this number shows you how expensive this production is. Shoppers claims a little bit on Thursday, Friday the famous Michigan consumer sentiment this was the number like three or four weeks ago sends us pretty higher because it was so unbelievably high on the one year time frame what people are expecting out of inflation.

[00:24:01.14] - Speaker 2
And again this stuff is tariff driven because no one really knows which tariffs get implemented. Right. How this will affect the consumer and people importing or exporting stuff especially to Canada, Mexico and to some sort of also to China. And a quote from Donald Trump. I have to have put it in there. On the right side. On the right side, Trump says US economy faces transition, avoids recession call remember last week he also said that he doesn't even look at the stock market which is complete to be honest. I think all of you have seen charts how many money, how many liquidity is allocated in the 401k accounts in the US right. It's billions, trillions. And of course they watch the stock market, right. But keep in mind the last years have been really really good and it's not normal spx doing like 50 yearly right. Over the history 8% is always viewed it's a number year over year which is considered as a good year. And yeah the performance was so really good the last years. It's not dead of a big problem if we are going lower. Right. And I think they know it as well and that's the reason why they yeah yapping such a lot of stuff sometimes.

[00:25:53.21] - Speaker 2
Okay, from last week. Last week we have met on Wednesday just a little follow up for the 6e long we laid out the drivers why it's a long, why it isn't a short. And yeah this was from Thursday then printed a long entry and.

[00:26:20.12] - Speaker 1
On the.

[00:26:20.28] - Speaker 2
Right side There Yeah, just some comments about technical stuff like vital stops because we have elevated FX volatility and with a 50 tick stop in the 6e future this would have been a trade like 3.7 R which is pretty, pretty okay in my view. Just assume you won't hold over the weekend because in this times like every headline can send you gapping up down or gapping up higher. Right? So it's pretty risky. So I just draw the trade in to like afternoon Friday. It does not reach the TP which was a gamma war at 109. We missed that a few ticks but to be honest, watch your trades. Maybe work with a trading stop would have been regardless of this that we not reach those one zero nines a good trade in my view. And as shown on Wednesday with the updates of the levels that you can find within the dashboard on a daily basis this would give half out trade from Thursday, right? It's not that bad if we consider that the 6e long trade was already underway since like few days or a week and we kind of bought this high over here at 108 and we were able to yeah carve some ticks out.

[00:28:12.29] - Speaker 2
Right. Just as a follow up because I usually like to inform you what happens with those trades. Right. If we have spoke about them. Okay. Last but not least for today, few slides ago we have spoken about the outperformance of bonds, right? And for my fellow option traders tlt, I think most of you are pretty, pretty aware the TOT is a 20 year bond ETF for the US government bonds. And on the left hand side there is a one hour chart with actual levels from this morning. On the right side we have a SKU on the bottom that is the implied volatility up to 60 days I guess. 60 days and why I put this stuff together because we have CPI on Wednesday. We have also a pretty, pretty good trend which got reversed a little bit in TlT like this week. I mean you see the high on the chart on the left hand side and yeah with CPI you usually have elevated or implied volatility. Right? Because CPI is watched as an event, no one really knows what will happen. And so for the IV photos options is going higher and you have to pay more for your trade.

[00:29:51.08] - Speaker 2
Looking over to skus on the right side the skew is going down shows you a little bit of a call bias, right? Calls or bought course sold we don't know but the risk reversal is showing us a little bit of a downtrend prices above. So just price actions is showing You a downtrend as well. Keep all the stuff together. We had a good run in tlt. We had the local high like last week on default and now we have this range. So the next idea could be going over some data a little bit. Right. To find out. Yeah prices are showing up in the GEX charts on the left side how the gamma zones are distributed and. Yeah, well zones of big interest. As we can see those levels about 90. Yeah, it's 1919 down to 85. Just open the chart right here. 90. So 90 would be the low from Friday and on the upside 95. This is kind of the high from wetness day. Right. It seems like out of positioning that we have some sort of range. Right. We have bottom area where you can place trades and you have the top area where you can place trades.

[00:31:32.20] - Speaker 2
Usually we have those expiration charts for the next four expirations. Okay. The next expiration is the 12th of March which is CPI day. That's the reason why I choose this and posted it in here and it shows us above price. Negative gamma exposure could be mean people are selling stuff over there. Right. Try to collect a little bit of premium. On the other hand it's showing also positive gangs could be that people are actually betting on the long side. Maybe a CUDA CPI can send you up to there. If DPI is kind of in line on Wednesday and we don't use or have to use this already high iv, the premium from options will bleed out. So think about what can you structure here. Do you want to play a directional trade like. Yeah, vanilla options just long put long short. Do you want to sell options for OTM because you think that the IV for this day 12th March is already pretty high and we don't maybe use it on the right side to gage a little bit how IV is distributed. You can do this for. Yeah, pretty much every asset that prints out IV I always calculate the implied world 30 day versus the historical wallet 30 day so called volatility risk premium.

[00:33:29.02] - Speaker 2
Right. If it's negative it's considered cheap in terms of iv. If it's positive it's considered expensive in terms of IV it's positive. Slightly positive for tlt. Given the fact it's such a boring asset it kind of screams this days like an asset that get only bit up because of risk off in markets. However, days like or inflation days with CPI can change the tone significantly here. That's the reason we have the option metrics on the left side. I marked two days the 12th of March and the 14th, 14th is the weekly expiration obviously. And the 12th of March is the CPI day. Gamma exposure is labeled as red here. The data exposure as well. This usually just means more volatile days, right. It does not mean that this spot price is going down or going up. It just means more volatility. The reason behind we are going over this stuff, it could be very very expensive. If you think on Monday or. Okay, the redness day with cpi it's. It's a no brainer for tlt. I just. Yeah. Buy calls. If hits the fan you may bleed out your already paid premium. Right. And this stuff here with the matrix and the world to the risk premium shows you that you already have paid a significantly higher premium for your trade.

[00:35:15.00] - Speaker 2
So it's maybe wise to. Yeah. Wait until the stuff comes down. If you want to buy options, if you want to sell options, of course you want to have some sort of elevated iv. Just keep in mind those days this stuff can actually happens, right. And also at can move like $2 a day. I know it's pretty, pretty much. But never say never do this chaotic sentiment that we have. So if you are a seller in this market environment, play it more safely, right. Don't sell 92 puts for puts for TLT. Right. Keep it more out of the money. And cool stuff to gage this a little bit are in that exploration charts here from the queue because it shows you on a graphic site what is the market actually thinking? How is the positioning and yeah the new stuff we have on the dashboard, I currently test it out a little bit for myself. But what kind of useful is are the momentum charts on the right side? I think probably you won't tell us how they work because they are prosperous I guess. But if you just look at the price action is going down and momentum is also going down.

[00:36:49.07] - Speaker 2
From my side it's kind of viewed as a downtrend that is not that much into play anymore that the momentum is already fading a little bit. But maybe Fabio can like speak one or two minutes of it a little bit because it's new to.

[00:37:05.28] - Speaker 1
Well, yeah, sure. So within the dashboard under volume models, these are all our models on mostly the spx. So we look at the SPX as a market overall kind of like indicator. So what we have is our vault control fund model. This is basically looking at historical and implied volatility. And these are strategies that tend to buy and sell volatility when they. When there is arbitrage. Here we look at our long short volatility barometer where we look at ETF, volatility, ETFs. And we're trying to understand if there is, if the market is long or short volatility by looking at those ETFs. And then of course we have our market breath indicator which shows you the number of stocks that are part of the S&P 500 that are above their 200 days moving averages. And as you can see, kind of like the trend is kind of going down. So we are kind of going into kind of like a negative direction. That means that a lot of like stocks in the S and P are below their 200 day moving averages. So that means that they are in kind of like a downtrend potentially. And then of course we have our rsi.

[00:38:22.11] - Speaker 1
So we look at for example similar to the spx, we look at number of stocks that are, that have like another side greater than 70. And then this is the 14 days RSI, this is the five days. And then we also have our MACD indicator and our super trend indicator. So here we are looking at the number of stocks within the S P that are in a super trend buy signal. So of course monitoring this will tell you if overall the market is trending up or trending down. And then of course you have our CTA's model. So I don't know, you, you use it a lot, Tim, I think. But looking at the, what CTAs do is also very important here. So this kind of.

[00:39:12.06] - Speaker 2
Yes it is.

[00:39:14.11] - Speaker 1
This kind of shows you like the CTA positioning versus the spx. We see that we're in a very strong kind of a downtrend at the CTA's level here. And then I don't know if you played around with it, but also like if we look at our Q score when we look at the spx, like I sent the newsletter yesterday, of course we are looking at, we're in a bearish kind of like environment from the option side. We're in a very high volatility environment. We're in a very low momentum and we currently do not experience a positive or negative seasonality when we look at skew. Also we see that we are kind of going back to a put bias kind of like environment. So there's still like a lot of uncertainty of where the market could go. And then of course if we look at our swing model, we are kind of in the bearish kind of like scenario as well.

[00:40:16.16] - Speaker 2
So yeah, I was just thinking about the momentum indications. Of course we don't know how they are actually calculated, but mapping this out a Little bit. I mean you can see we are topping from like the mid of February in price and spx. We are going down, the momentum score is going down as well but now we make new lower lows and the momentum score is flattening out a little bit. Right?

[00:40:46.17] - Speaker 1
Yeah.

[00:40:47.27] - Speaker 2
So I mean I have to play around a little bit with it but it's maybe stuff that's usable to find some sort of bottoming already, right?

[00:41:00.19] - Speaker 1
Yeah. So I think it's going to be interesting to look at the seasonality. So it's still kind of like a zero but we've seen for example an increase in seasonality and for example if we look at here when we were like kind of like at the top we saw like kind of like an uptrend. Then of course as when the seasonality kind of bottom right here, this was the start of like this kind of like down move. So now we are kind of like going kind of back. So looking at monitoring this seasonality indicator could be interesting to understand. Okay, can there be a correction at some point?

[00:41:39.19] - Speaker 2
Yeah, yeah, because you can always, yeah. Make your technical analyst and say wow, SPX6K, that's a round number, has to hold. Right. Because blah blah, blah, but it's not the truth.

[00:41:54.25] - Speaker 1
And then also like the volatility indicator is at the maximum. So normally there are strong price action when we see a lot of volatility, especially in private. So obviously something could be about to happen as well. So it's interesting to monitor this kind of indicator here.

[00:42:16.03] - Speaker 2
Yeah, it's good to have those tools in your pocket. To be honest. It's getting more and more complicated with the years. So keep up guys.

[00:42:26.06] - Speaker 1
Yeah, of course then you can monitor, you know, max seven companies, you can see the overall picture. So obviously if we monitor Tesla, if we look at Nvidia, like know we see like a very, very similar result. But if you look for example at Nvidia and we go back to our seasonality score, if we look here when the seasonality went super high, this was the signal of like the start of a new uptrend here and then as soon as the seasonality moved lower, like negative then here we had basically this downturn move. And now of course the seasonality is kind of like going back to kind of like maybe a positive territory. So maybe monitoring if this indicator would maybe go up here and see what could happen to the price after that.

[00:43:20.25] - Speaker 2
Yeah, good, good.

[00:43:23.19] - Speaker 1
And let us know guys if you have any questions on what we discussed.

[00:43:29.02] - Speaker 2
I just have one last slide that's Just talking like two minutes, nothing really scary but just as information for you because I don't know who is a short term trader here who trades long term who is an investor but stuff has changed a little bit, right? So because. Not because that's the reason why I labeled this slide like donut 2.0 people have who may have experienced the first term of Donald Trump I mean they can already tell it feels a little bit different, doesn't it? Year to date performance of the US minus 2% I mean it's not dramatical the IPO Vespa for the LatAm stocks in South America are doing good, Europe is blowing out a hell. Not speaking of China, Hang Seng people have been underweight China like the last two years, right? People have been short, they get squeezed out, they have have to jump on the bandwagon as well Leads to some sort of. Yeah, abandoned U. S Assets and treasury market. I have mentioned it a few times in this presentation already Yields lower and stocks lower is sometimes the thing. Stocks are doing good, but not in this regime, right?

[00:44:57.25] - Speaker 2
And I tell you that if yields are going up in the next weeks again if they are going up and stocks are going down in lockstep as well, then we have a problem. Okay, so just as a hint for stuff you maybe want to watch, just keep in mind we have like one rate cut this year from the Fed and they rate futures and stuff also said Q are pricing in like free, right? People are arguing right now because they think that's the reason we have this left chart here. Government sector and US job growth because people arguing that job creation will slow down this week we have faster rate cuts, right? So it's starting again with this year the market against the Fed and for our short term traders the most important stuff you have to watch during your daily business is volatility these times and maybe how sectors are performing, right? If tech gets sold and shits the bed and you're trading nasdaq maybe go with shorts. Okay, wait for it but maybe go with shorts. Don't play the hero for our long term traders. It always makes a difference if you are long in SPX since 5 months or if you are short since 1 month.

[00:46:31.20] - Speaker 2
Let it play out. And if we have investors here, think about what drivers, macro regimes which is growth, inflation and liquidity, okay? All of it was mentioned in this presentation already. Growth is still there, It's a little bit slower, it gets a little bit deteriorated, but it's still there. Inflation is still high, okay, but inflation and growth go Hand in hand. Okay. You can't have tremendous growth without some sort of inflation uptick. The problem is liquidity. Think about what, why Bitcoin is down, right? Because it's an exit asset for. Yeah, liquidity in the market. It's so risky and so unpredictable. If stuff in general was unpredictable, no one will put in big bags in crypto. Okay. And think about hedges. The cheaper the better. Okay. Especially when you run a portfolio or stuff or like that. And yeah, if you are the community and you are feel yourself or fitted in one of those free trade off regimes. Short term, long term investor, don't hesitate to ask. We have a lot of people also long term investors and also we have. Yeah, I am also there. Don't hesitate to ask questions. Okay? And that's it for today.

[00:48:15.26] - Speaker 1
All right, let's see if we have any questions, guys. If not, as always, you can find [email protected] and you can also create a free account and join our mailing list and you receive every day our like update for the day and you can also access our free academy. And then if you guys want to join us and want to use the tools that we have, we still have a promotion going on until March 16th, so please benefit from that. You can find everything on our website. So yeah, thank you, Tim, as always and see you again next week.

[00:48:52.28] - Speaker 2
Yeah, next week, Monday, same time, same place.

[00:48:57.22] - Speaker 1
Awesome. Thank you, Tim.

[00:48:59.15] - Speaker 2
All right, bye. Bye.