Weekly Macro Update

Macro Update – 02/24/2025

This week’s macro update covers market conditions heading into a critical week featuring Nvidia earnings, crude oil volatility, and key economic data releases. We’ll walk you through SPX movements, volatility patterns, energy market dynamics, and what to watch as markets navigate upcoming catalysts.

Last week’s trading was relatively quiet, with Monday being a holiday and markets grinding higher to make a new all-time high in SPX on Wednesday. The action picked up on Thursday, the day before options expiry (opex), when markets experienced a violent down move at the cash open before recovering to end flat. Friday brought realized volatility into the market, with selling pressure throughout the day pushing the VIX futures briefly to 18.5 handles before getting sold on Monday morning—a typical pattern where VIX pops tend to get sold quickly.

The VIX has been hovering around the 15-17 area, which represents a floor in volatility due to options positioning. When realized volatility matches or exceeds implied volatility, markets can experience significant moves, as we saw Friday. This volatility dynamic is crucial for intraday traders to monitor, especially as we approach Wednesday’s after-market close Nvidia earnings, which could overshadow other economic data like Friday’s durable goods orders.

Friday’s crude oil (CL) futures experienced an unusual 3% down move, despite conflicting market signals. The prompt spread—which compares the front month contract to the next month—remained flat, suggesting the price move didn’t reflect actual demand and supply dynamics. Additionally, the crack spread, which measures refinery margins by comparing RB (diesel) and HO (heating oil) to crude oil, remained elevated, indicating productivity margins are still high. Crude is now trading in backwardation, meaning front month prices are higher than future months, which typically brings increased volatility to the front month contract.

This week’s economic calendar is light, with Tuesday bringing energy inventories for crude oil and natural gas, Thursday featuring durable goods orders, and Friday showing personal income, personal spending, and core PCE numbers. However, the main event is Wednesday after-market close with Nvidia earnings, which could significantly impact market direction given Nvidia’s importance over the past one to two years.

Video Chapters

00:00 – Welcome and weekly overview
02:15 – Last week’s ES chart review and volatility analysis
07:16 – Economic data and earnings preview for the week ahead
10:33 – Crude oil 3% Friday drop analysis
12:09 – Prompt spread and backwardation explanation
13:37 – Crack spread and refinery margin indicators

Key Takeaways

• The VIX popped to 18.5 handles on Friday as realized volatility entered the market, but quickly sold off Monday morning following typical patterns
Crude oil’s 3% Friday decline appeared disconnected from fundamentals, with the prompt spread remaining flat and crack spreads still elevated
Nvidia earnings Wednesday after-market close is the week’s main catalyst and could overshadow other economic releases
• Markets made a new SPX all-time high on Wednesday before Friday’s volatility brought selling pressure throughout the session

Video Transcription

[00:00:25.08] - Speaker 1
Welcome team. Happy Monday. Welcome. Welcome back. Welcome Tim. Again we are here for our weekly macro update. So very excited. Today is another big week. We have some really interesting earnings coming up with Nvidia like Salesforce and other companies. So I'll pass it back to you Tim and you know give us an overview of what to watch for the week.

[00:00:48.17] - Speaker 2
Yeah, thanks for the introduction. Hello ladies and gentlemen. Gentlemen, it's Monday. Monday means a little brief update from me. If you are new listener. I usually give a quick review about the last week. That's always the reason why you see ES or SBX chart as a first slide over here. Then we are going over the next week. This time I also have a little bit of a trade review that was mentioned like 3 weeks ago I guess in the macro update from the Japanese yen today we also talk a little about about the sinister move in crude oil futures from Friday which have been traded 3% down. We will look over the SPX internals a little bit and then of course the big question Wednesday aftermarket close Nvidia earnings and yeah, let's see what we can. Yeah. Find in it or maybe not and if it's wise to trade this or not. Okay, let's go over the first slide a little bit. This is obviously a ES chart from last week. Monday was a holiday. I labeled this as holiday as well. The week was yeah pretty quiet. I mentioned last week there are no major updates from the economy.

[00:02:15.18] - Speaker 2
No major data points that the Wall street may react or not react. So you had a pretty boring Tuesday Wednesday which is floating around. ES SPX was mainly driven due to positions. If there was a significant low it was bought and the highs exhausted. We made a new all time high in SPX on Wednesday. Yeah, Wednesday briefly. Just a few points, nothing big to mention. We will have this topic a little bit later when we looking into the SPX a little bit more. But then it was first day. So first day was the day pre opex. Right. And all you. I think all you know every third Friday monthly there's an options expiry. So the first day is the last day those options can actively trade because they will expire on Friday in the am session in the morning. I know not all of them. There is a difference between futures options and SPX options of course but we want to keep it kinda are simple and stupid here. So the first day has seen a little bit of a violent down move with the cash opening. It was bought later on and we ended the day kind of flat.

[00:03:45.28] - Speaker 2
Really interesting if you look at volatility. That's the reason we are plotted the VIX future. The ongoing contract below this volatility was kind of flat. In the last week's macro update I mentioned this. Yeah Vix area 1517 which always was some kind of a flaw in volatility with Vix 15 not due to technical analysis because doesn't make sense and asset like VIX but more due to options positioning. Right. And we also talked about it that if you have actually realized volatility that goes into the market stuff like VIX futures, the VIX itself can have a pretty big up move pretty fast. So why is it like that into the VIX complex itself to to positionings There are always a lot of people having actually exposure for weeks going higher. But this has to triggered due to realized volatility. Right. We have seen several sessions where implied volatility was yeah. Higher than realized. And if the realized volatility is not that high as the implied volatility markets are usually are moving kind of dumb grinding higher. And it's pretty hard to catch some significant trends intraday if you're intraday day trader. But there will always be the day when realized and implied volatility is matching up or gets even smaller than implied volatility.

[00:05:37.09] - Speaker 2
Right. So this was the case on Friday a little bit into the open and yep, we sold pretty the whole day. I guess the low was in around one hour before the close. You see the VIX features here taking briefly 18.5 handles and it was sold on Monday morning. That's also a frequent picture that we are seeing that those props in VIX are getting sold pretty quickly, at least to a certain point. It's not like that they are hammering down the vix in like 12 or 11 point area but these pops 18, 19, 20 usually get sold. So something you should watch this week of course is volatility how this behaves. All right. On the YouTube channel. There's also a macro update where we talk about this little bit more in deep how to calculate risk premiums, volatility risk premiums and yeah look over it. You will find it pretty sure. All right. The week ahead on top of it there are some economic data. The Monday is pretty boring. Tuesday as well. If you are trading energy we're in the state as usually all the inventories for crude oil, net gas and all the stuff.

[00:07:16.10] - Speaker 2
There's some scattered. Yeah Fed speech nearly daily due to Friday I think. So Friday is also fast speech but it's nothing big to mention to be honest. There are some Bond auctions. I watch them, track them a little bit to have maybe a bond trade but nothing sinister here. First day durable goods orders for the US it's yeah. Manufacturing data for durable goods. Durable goods are labeled as everything that holds or lasts longer than three years. So in this number is everything included from your tumble dryer up to a big Boeing. It's also a little bit a part of the inflation component for PPI and pce. And due to the fact we have witness day after the market Nvidia earnings maybe get overshadowed by this. Well because we all know it's or it was the stock in the market like the last one or two years and it can have some yeah. Impact on other stuff as well. Speaking of volatility here and Friday, some minor numbers, personal income, personal spending are some core PCE numbers. So the week is pretty light from this area and yeah I mentioned it already Wednesday after close Nvidia earnings and yeah.

[00:08:59.29] - Speaker 2
What's going on in other parts of the world? A little bit. The Germans had elections on Sunday and I mapped out a little bit of yeah. Some of the ongoing stories that are broadly watched here in the yellow rectangles for the EU and we will come later to it. It's, it's about how to deal with the new Trump administration, how to deal with independency from the US and yes there are traits in it of course and for the US domestically spoken it's, it's about tariffs. Sunday I have read some new stuff about tariffs in China also tariffs for China born vessels. So yeah, big cargo vessels, new tariff announcements over there and long story short for the US or all the terror stuff. And I think we have spoke about this topic. Yeah like one month ago when it was pretty new. No one really knows. That's kind of a problem. That's the reason why you see those inflation swaps ticking up a little bit because common reading, common sense right now is that those terrorist implications. Yeah. May have a little bit of impact for the ongoing inflation outlook for the US So so it's a little bit of a driver from the back seat.

[00:10:33.23] - Speaker 2
It's called like this. So I mentioned it in the intro or CL on Friday. Crude oil, I know there was some kind of a story in the headlines of a new Covid strain in China. It feels a little bit ridiculous to talk about this but just want to mention it but we don't keep it into consideration for our analysis here because it's a headlight out of nowhere. And I know sometimes you have moves in markets that Are born out to this news headlines but some stuff is speaking against it due to how crude prices are actually working and how they are yeah can be mapped out if they are fair. So let's say cheap or not fair or expensive. So let's get into it a little bit. We opened and I mapped this out pretty. I hope you can see it here. 277250 was the open from Friday. I actually had crude longs a little bit shy below 7250 and a few hours later I was stopped out. I just got a message on a mobile phone but my stop was triggered and I was like what? I screwed so much down. You have to look in this a little bit.

[00:12:09.10] - Speaker 2
So took the loss over there. I was bullish. Usually didn't worked out happens. And first stuff I have seen on the crude chart here, the second pane below the teal number is a so called prompt spread. Right. And a prompt spread in energy trading is always the actually contract that is deliverable compared with the next one. A spread out of this. And if you read this spread you can make an assumption how demand and supply between this two contracts is right. If it's going up, there's a high demand for the ongoing contract that you are trading. So you should watch out for longs and vice versa. Of course it's going down. You have to look out for shorts in the front month. Front month brings us also to the fact that crude is now trading in backwardation. So that means the further out you go on the futures curve the lower order prices are. This brings in volatility always it's due to the fact that the front month is kinda yeah. Vulnerable to changes into the market because usually the market is skewed more to the downside. So demand isn't that high whilst supply is kind of flat.

[00:13:37.00] - Speaker 2
But if something changes like let's say yeah, classic example as a new war, you never know, right? Kuwait gets attacked by whatever oil would make a huge squeeze to the upside several percent. This is due to the fact that the whole curve is in back rotation and that the short term outlook for demand and supply is really really unstable. So this brings in volatility. Okay. We have seen this volatility on Friday in the front month which is was down which was down 3% nearly. But our prompt spreads below here I try to map this out with this yellow line was kind of flat. Okay. It does not mean that the CL future is going to the North Broncos today. It just means that the pricing yeah. Does not really reflect demand and Supply outlook and on the other hand but this is something you should watch on a daily time frame at least. It's the so called crack spread or that's industry standard. It's the little chart down here, the big yellow line. What is a crack spread? It's basically mapping out what you can get out of one barrel of CL futures. You all know if cl, so crude oil comes out of the soil, it's not ready.

[00:15:09.21] - Speaker 2
Right. It has to be refined in the refinery and you can make out several products from oil actually one is heating oil and the other one is diesel. So a crack spread always compares RB which is diesel. HO is heating oil. Compare it to a barrel of cl. If this goes up, it's usually means the margin in productivity for these products is still pretty high. It also means that CL prices are usually SK to the upside a little bit more. So a 3% down move on a Friday where nothing really big happens. If we kinda ignore or exclude the Chinese new Covid strain story, which does not really make sense, it's a little bit suspicious. And you can move this stuff because oil right now is trending in pretty big ranges and you have those numbers like 70 which is also a psychological number because it's round number it's 70. So we can look a little bit into positioning how it looks on the Mentor dashboard. I always use the same stuff for this. What we don't have but we have it in the future little hint is the volatility for all this. That's the reason why you see on the left lower side are the well known CME C indication which maps out volatility for all the future contracts.

[00:16:52.17] - Speaker 2
Options on future contracts that are going on. Yeah, but look over it in terms of G what it's baked in at the market and from the left to the right on the upper side I always started with the big overall outlook or where actually we stopped with the spot price. Right. So it was 70. This always uses those orange little rectangles. And also because the scale is sometimes a little bit slow, I also write the prices in white against it. And yeah, mapping out major strikes always brings us to 70 again. Is the GEX profile skewed up or down? What means this? If you look at the little chart on the left just by roughly eyeballing, you can see there's a lot of gamma below spot which is also pretty big. Why is it like that? It does not mean that there are much of long puts into the market. Could also short puts but it means gamma is growing below spot. So you have areas of interest. Right. And if you're trading futures, it's always good to have an area of interest where stuff can happen. Because you don't have to fumble around in prices like 70, 15 because you see in your footprint whatever stuff observation or exhaustion or something like that.

[00:18:32.04] - Speaker 2
No, you can chill a little bit, set an alarm around 70 and can make a trading plan out of it. Right. So and because we have not just only options that are decaying weekly in cl, also two weeks, three weeks monthly, whatever, we can also look at the next expirations. And then I also included the expiration from the beginning of March. I know if the options expiry is pretty close, those options are having a much bigger influence of spot prices. But what I always do, I look at the FIR ones and go over it like the same way which I did of the overall Netgex picture. So basically the same one mapping out big strikes. That's the reason why I always marked the 70 area here. It's visible in the 26th of February expiration. It's also visible on the beginning of March expiration. Looking up to the upside, there's exposure 72, 72, 75. Right. So you have some kind of a range which is around $2. $2 a quarter on a good day in CL could be done in one day. If there is enough juice in buying $2 is doable. Remember backwardation and futures curve also leads to a higher volatility in the front month you are trading.

[00:20:13.15] - Speaker 2
So. And that's the reason it's actually doable. $2. It's a lot, but it's doable. Right. And if we examine the bigger charts a little bit further, we can also work with the gamma profile. That's the yellow line tilted or downwards. Yeah. Which means if spot goes below this, you're trading. A negative gamma also increases volatility and stuff can be pretty, pretty ugly. But now you have to always map this again against the chart you are watching. So those models not meaning that 70 is like a concrete floor. If you have selling pressure below it does not mean you have to blindly open longs. Right. Because you can get easily overrun. So the next slide shows some ideas how to. Yeah, map this out. That's the right one is today for me. I want to see 70 if it holds Again I also mentioned the little prompt spread. I actually have it open if I trade this daily or I have an entry because I want to see a trend there as well to confirm the view that our models are giving us. And also the yeah internals of crude oil. And for today I would like to see yeah some trading around the 70 then we are trading like upwards.

[00:21:58.02] - Speaker 2
And if you are a day trader and you have to close or you want to close right. Because it's maybe too risky for you to hold overnight or if your account is too small and you don't have the margin always mapping out strikes with the help of the MQ indicator which is in reach of the daily movement. Right. We have have also indications in the chart one day max and one day min what's doable from price. So don't get greedy. Here is the main message I would say if I missed the 70 I would lean maybe into a short. That's the auto chart on the right hand side on the top of. On the top. But yeah that's just to show you how to put this idea into the chart. And it's just let's say pre planned right. It's not casted an iron that I will do this on 100. Also always watch the. Yeah let's call it price action. Keep it simple like that. And for commodities if there's high volatility you have can. You can have big trends, several dollars up and down. And a little bit of advice from me. If you want to trade oil or also works for other stuff like NG or HG, don't fight for small trades.

[00:23:29.26] - Speaker 2
20, 25 ticks. I know if you made it, it's money all good, you made your fair share and you can walk out with a profit from the day. But usually in assets like this it's way way more smarter to trade those major levels. And look what happens over there the crude oil like those. Yeah 25 cent steps I call it like that. Right. So from 70, 70, 25, 70, 50, 70, 75 and so on. So wait for those important zones and yeah don't fumble around like 70, 61 or something like that. And yeah that is oil I guess. Yeah. A little recap from I think three weeks ago we have spoke about six Chase XJ had a multiple week high after the bank of Japan decision. So the left chart over here shows the trade a little bit. The yellow line was the entry. It was a limit buy I placed over there Back then it was a mental Q level because those are the mental Q levels from Friday or from Thursday I guess that you are seeing over here. And the idea behind it was first the relative good performance of 6J. We talked about this.

[00:25:05.14] - Speaker 2
I remember from month, week and daily performance compared to other FX pairs. And I Remember we also spoke about the tariff stuff and all the other currencies had a much more bad or worse, how you want to call it movement because of the tariff news. But Six Shade looked kind of immune. So I thought it's the strongest currency right now. Why not have a long over here, right? Nfx. I also watch of course stuff like yeah, bond yields for the currency that you are trading and the currency that you are trading against it. Maybe you can see it on the left upper chart, the little lilac line. Those are youth differentials between Japan and the U.S. long story short, if they are trading higher, usually your spot price should go higher as well. It's just a question when it will do. And also it's the question you are seeing this in the chart already here. If you have a long open, will you survive the long? Right. Because the currency can also trend down a little bit and then make yeah a new high. So this STR was put it on is it should be the beginning of February or the end of January.

[00:26:36.29] - Speaker 2
Yeah, end of January I guess so roughly a month, three and a half weeks I guess. Risk reward over 3.33 contracts reach it. The TP with the open from the night I looked into it on Friday and I was tempted to close it already because holding over the weekend is always a little bit for me. What could happen with all the stuff that's going on right now? You never know. FX was pretty volatile the last weeks. But yeah, I decided let us run and we peaked above GEX2 which is the second biggest KEX level according to the data from Friday. And yeah, hit the tp. It also aligns kinda a little bit on a technical base. If you look at the right chart on the lower pane, that's hourly chart. You have those highs over here from last year. And yeah, pretty solid trade. The main thing I do, I have a story behind why the Yen should outperform and map this against other currencies. For now it was obviously the dollar because it's 6G S6J future. And then I always look what is volatility doing? How is the positioning with mental Q And if trade is ongoing after two or three days positioning update.

[00:28:21.25] - Speaker 2
It's not like in ES futures or in SPX where the position can change drastically about one or two days. In FX it's kind of stable. So yeah, book this as a win. And yeah, pretty solid. All right. Equities this week. First I put some charts in it from last week because it's pretty interesting. And the upper Left pane shows the IWM cues and if you are not a new listener and if you have seen some charts from me I always like to look at the ARC ETF because it's high beta stuff into the market and if the market is buying this it's always a sign for me that people are okay with yeah taking more risk. RTF got obviously hammered down on Friday a little bit on Thursday as well. That's normal high beta stocks like allocated in the ARC ETF they can swing a lot more because of the fact that people are they are buying larger premiums to have exposure right here. And if this vanish or get also sold pretty quickly and what was also interesting we have spoke about it at the first pain already with the VIX and with the VIX futures that's the other chart that compared to the movement the Friday was pretty big and I mean spot was down in SPX like 1.8% if I guess and the VIX had a pretty big update.

[00:30:15.00] - Speaker 2
So after those reactions if you have volatility trades open or if you are planning to have exposure on equities Spoken about Q so SPX you should always watch those correlations and how spot price of SPX is actually having behaving compared to volatility spot prices. Right. Speaking of volatility down and spot up. So SPX up or are they both going down or they both going up. Okay so those are suspicious signs you should watching next on top of that if you are meant to queue member of course use the levels use the exposure that is shown on the website. Some of us are doing also some basic technical analysis. I tend to not do it to be honest but for me yeah it works pretty good. Does not have to be networks for you pretty well also if you are not using TA okay. Into spx. So first of all the leftover chart shows you our market breath indicator. Simply put the number of stocks above on SMA200 and if it's trading into green area it usually means that of course more stocks are above the SMA 200. Yep. Y200 it's about trading days into the year and have a moving average plotted to it roughly brings you out around 200.

[00:32:06.24] - Speaker 2
It's some sort of industry standard like the SMA100, like the SMA50. That's stuff that's is watched pretty well from everyone so that's the reason why it's used. And as you can see we are trading in those yellow area down there which is Translated to roughly 300, 350 stocks trading above the SMA 200 and the SPX is grinding higher. Right. I mentioned this Thursday we made a new all time high. It was a weak one, but it was a new all time high. So this means there's no chart in it. It's just. Yeah. Second thingy, I wrote down over here that the RSP legs behind the SBX a little bit. That's kind of normal to be honest. Equal weighted spx. There's always some sort of a little lag compared to the spx. It's of course due to how the index is valuated and also what kind of stocks have. Yeah. How much share of a market cap. Right. I think that's nothing new to all of us but if we have new listeners it's maybe interesting. All right, so implied correlations. I also talk a lot about this. That's a big chart on the right over here.

[00:33:42.02] - Speaker 2
So implied correlations are showing you basically how the implied volatility from the SPX is trending or working against specific, I think 50 stock basket of the SPX. So it's map it against. The main takeaway here is are people buying or selling volatility more in the index itself or more in the stock space? Right. Because you can run several tactical strategies. Selling or buying volume in the SPX or in let's say the biggest stocks or a basket of 50 stocks. And usually if this is trending up also dispersion is going up. Dispersion is a measurement how the stock return on a daily basis gets dispersed. Right. Do you have a lot of stocks that are moving equally down 2% or do you have stocks going down 2% or up a half percent down 1%. Right. It's like shooting a gun. If we have shooters here and always if you are shooting at the same target and anytime you're pulling the trigger, not all bullets are going to the same hole. Right. There is dispersion. So it's a little bit of a help how you can remember this, what we have seen on Friday, that the implied correlations are going up on a one month and on a three month basis.

[00:35:27.24] - Speaker 2
And the dispersion uptick was. Yeah, let's say it's dull. Right. It was not as high as on the left side of the chart where the red arrows are and it wasn't as flat as at the 12th of February where those little red arrows are here in the middle. Right. So this means we have also a little bit of uptick in dispersion but nothing really sinister. Pretty normal movements just keep in Mind those down day. That's the reason why we have the little SPX chart here on the left was likely due to ofexpo doing those OPEX days. I mean a lot of stuff is going on right? Auctions have to expiry day. They are getting booked out from market participants and the market. New positions are getting into the market. A lot of stuff is going on due to market making and probably if you look at positions in depth and yeah do a little bit of due diligence it's likely we have still upward exposure in spx but there isn't enough juice to bring us up in SPX to yeah all time highs that are actually, let's call it true ones. Don't get me wrong, not very bearish here and say it's over.

[00:37:11.13] - Speaker 2
Just saying those days like Friday I tend to to opinion this is technical and has to do with the underlying mechanics that we that I have tried to mapped out a little bit here. Okay. And that's a daily chart on the left side of course. And I think we can all agree nothing special has happened since like two or three months big range trading. What means this for you? Having exposure in the middle can be a little bit dangerous. Having exposure on the tails, be it the downside or be it the upside requires some, some sort of yeah how do you say process behind it to valuate if it's okay to buy the dip, as stupid as it sounds or if it's okay to short the rip like from wetness day. Right. And I also say the Friday move on opex everything can happens and we maybe could also have seen a new all time high. Okay, last but not least Wednesday time to shine for Nvidia. The stock itself. I think you all are aware of the big AI story that it's yeah ongoing since nearly two years right now. Two years ago 23 Nvidia had those burner earnings where the whole party started.

[00:38:50.05] - Speaker 2
And yeah, let's look over some stuff but the first thing I want to say is my opinion is always Onyx trading is a gamble, right. The outcome is completely unclear. You can have good numbers, you can have a good guidance, you can have a good earnings call and the market says still ah, that's not enough. Let's hammer Nvidia down 5%, 10% on the day. Okay. No one knows. I'm not saying gambling is bad. Okay. If you have I don't know one call and you want to buy a call and yeah, put like I don't know 200 premium in it. Yeah, go for it. But selling options close to the spot price into earnings. Maybe a strategy that yeah can bite you in the end. Okay, just doing my educational duty here and also point out of the dangerous stuff that can happens. Okay, term structure on the left side of course term structure goes up, right? Implied volatility, earnings, that's not a surprise. But think of premiums that people are buying here. Okay, premiums are usually higher when the IV is higher. Why is it like that? Because we have earnings and stocks can move on those days as you know, more extensive to the down and to the upside.

[00:40:30.29] - Speaker 2
So options dealers are getting paid more from you, from your premium. So first take here. It's expensive to make a trade this week. It was a little bit more cheaper last week. Heading over to skew the one month on the right side and that's actually a new SKU that Mentor Queue has brought out or will bring out this week. I guess it's a little bit more easy to interpret for the people because it shows you put buys and call buys what's actually going on in sku. And and main takeaway here is or for me the main takeaway is to compare the skew also with the movement of the spot price. And the spot price is obviously above the skew and we had a way way more higher skew in the beginning. Beginning of February. No, it's wait, it's 2723 last week of January where Nvidia was trading around 120 and now it's trading 1 135. As you can see the put price isn't that big. Of course it could change until Wednesday. Right. So people are putting maybe more hedges on or doing what other stuff with puts into Wednesday. But as of now or as a Friday the put buyers is kind of muted.

[00:41:59.10] - Speaker 2
Okay, but spot price is already higher. The expiration for this Friday 28th. Here is the other chart on the left hand side. As you can see there is fairly a big share around 150. And I think you all know if the market is pleased with the outcome from Nvidia earnings due to the day assume we are trading around 130 until Wednesday. A $10 move is possible for Nvidia. I guess we can agree with that. It's also possible of downside of course but we can see the 150 here has a pregp exposure. So it was kind of the same with mstr like a few weeks ago they had a huge squeeze after market. So this was also mainly due to options positioning as well and main Takeaway here is with the net gags expiration mapping out important strikes that have already been a big exposure. But also keep in consideration the cost of your trade here and keep also in consideration how to put and call bias is going to. Okay then for the next day which is Thursday if the cash session opens. Nvidia has due to its weight in the industry due to the AI story has also an impact of other stuff we are taking.

[00:43:35.14] - Speaker 2
We are talking about text in general XLK ETF, the Max 7 ETF, the semiconductor ETF SMH. Okay. The weighting of Nvidia alone is fairly big in those Also you have other names doing the same stuff like Nvidia or into in the delivery chain of Nvidia. Right. So the single stock, if we are speaking about Nvidia here can have a big impact on those sectors as well. And you all know if there is a pretty big trend or elevated volatility in the tax or in the max sevens, it can also spill over in the SPX of course or much worse, the qqq. Right. QS are a little bit more vulnerable due to the just 100 text holdings compared to the 500 holdings in SPX. So Nvidia has to be on the watch for the week of course. And where do I get the data from? Yeah, not from here because that's the new dashboard that Fabio will show you. I think Friday or Monday. I think he will say one or few words after our little presentation. And yeah, that's basically the stuff I use. Where the data comes from. You can see the SKUS over here, all the Options data, our 5 day swing model for Nvidia.

[00:45:15.10] - Speaker 2
And yeah, that's where the data is from and that's where, that's how the dashboard will look in a few days, I guess. And yeah, we are done so far. A little bit of market talk, oil volatility. Yeah, that's it.

[00:45:36.12] - Speaker 1
Yeah. Thank you, Tim. Yeah, the new dashboard as you mentioned is coming out very soon. We were planning on a Release on the 27th but we might have to move it to the Monday. But we keep you posted guys. But by next week you'll get access to the new tool and also we have some new exciting stuff, new models, strategies. So we'll do like the full presentation later, later this week or early next week. But yeah, that will be available very, very soon. We are very excited and for those who want to learn more and join our mailing list and obviously stay up to date with all our development, you can kind of like sign up for [email protected] free and create a free account. Get access to some of the tools, some of our Academy courses and all of that stuff. And also you'd be part of our mail. We do a daily newsletter that we send out every morning and also you get informed about all the new stuff. So yeah, if you want to create an account and if you have any questions, don't hesitate to send us an email. Infoentorq.com and next week there's going to be a lot of live session that we're going to host with Tim and the other traders.

[00:46:52.02] - Speaker 1
So don't miss those because we're going to go into the weeds and show you some actionable stuff on how to use the data to create spreads to zero dt options for macro futures and all of that stuff. So a lot of good things. You can basically look for the events right here on our YouTube channel. So all of these will be available and will be streamed next week. So stay tuned, follow us and obviously you'll get access to all these events. So very excited. And we're going to see each other next week again, Tim?

[00:47:29.13] - Speaker 2
Yes, on Wednesday, I guess.

[00:47:31.29] - Speaker 1
Yeah.

[00:47:33.03] - Speaker 2
All right, cool.

[00:47:34.16] - Speaker 1
Awesome. Thank you guys. Have a good day. Thank you, Tim.

[00:47:37.13] - Speaker 2
All right, bye. Bye.