Crypto as an Asset Class and its Macro Role

[00:00:00.07] - Speaker 1
Sam.

[00:00:40.10] - Speaker 2
Hi, guys. Welcome back. Very excited to be here. We are going to have another session for today, and today is going to be about crypto with Jay. And I'm going to introduce you, Jay in a second. But it's more like looking at crypto as an asset class at the macro level. And now we can kind of interpret that. So first of all, Jay, welcome back. Last time we were here maybe two, three weeks ago, we had an amazing session on Forex. You were really able to simplify the idea on how to read the Forex market coming from your experience. So I really appreciate that. I'm happy to have you here. And maybe for those who don't know you, we who haven't been following the session and we're going to send the link later as well, because that was, for me, a master class on Forex. Like, for those who are new to Forex, they really helped me to understand the approach behind it. So welcome again and also welcome Patrick and yes, please introduce yourself and then we can start.

[00:01:41.26] - Speaker 3
Thank you for having me again.

[00:01:43.09] - Speaker 1
I think it's our third session. Fabio and Patrick, I really appreciate the opportunity to work with you guys. And again from my side and our trader side, thank you for a great product that you created. And we're not being compensated for this. I actually do this with you guys for your community and for us as traders to evolve together and to share some important puzzle pieces and knowledge that will hopefully add value to your processes and advance your knowledge. Because in the end of the day, this business is about information asymmetry and those who have more information and faster than others and are able to utilize that information, that knowledge are the ones that make money. So my name is Jay, Jay Medro. I've been in the financial services industry for over 30 years. By origin, decades ago. I was actually a bond trader originally and work for very large institutions like Lehman Brothers, Nomura, Societe General, just to name a few. So I have several of the professional degrees that you need, of course, to even get into the industry, you need to have and be coming from one of the top universities with one of the top MBA programs or financial management programs.

[00:03:06.12] - Speaker 1
In my case, that was Virginia Tech. And then you fight your way up through the ranks and in the end of the day, you don't really know where you're going to end up within the industry. And the big disconnect that I saw in 2016 when I started my own company, which was back then called J Metro Forex Trading Seminars, the reason why I started the company back in 2016 after being an investment banker for many, many decades was that I saw the quality of the education, at least in the German speaking market was higher. Horrific. It was about technical analysis at the time. So I single handedly changed the landscape of German speaking online retail education. There's many, many people who copy my knowledge these days. That's okay. Why is it okay? Because at least we stopped talking about nonsense and are now talking about more institutional focused processes and, and data. Data that's driving the market, math that's driving the market, and also behavior of institutions that are driving the market. And like you said, the last couple of classes we did together or webinars hopefully gave some of your traders an insight that the markets work very, very different.

[00:04:25.26] - Speaker 1
The market participants act very, very differently from what some of you when you're new into to this game, to, to this profession may think. And today I work for a corporation out of the United States which is called Liberty Brothers and our educational program is in German for now. And the last year I spent teaching a forex and macro trading master class. And this September in German, it will be the kickoff for, for our, what I call global income investor. So part of the global income investor is that you do not spend eight to 18 hours in front of the screens, but you have different asset classes that you understand how they work and different products that you utilize in different time frames to either create income, instant cash flow or the yield that you require in order to have your money grow. So it's, it's a, it's a different program. It's more suited towards people who don't want to or who were unsuccessful in trading, which is very difficult to do. In reality, only 1% of the traders make consistent profits, which is something we can talk about in the future. But it's possible otherwise the 1% wouldn't do it.

[00:05:55.21] - Speaker 1
But it's very, very difficult if you don't have the correct information and you don't have the proper tools and the proper mindset that actually allow you to utilize the tools profitably. So part of the global income investor is that according to what macro environment the market is in, we have different asset classes that are performing and then we have different tools, like I said, to generate yield or cash flow in these asset classes. And of course part of knowing about different asset classes is crypto. And so I'm very, very excited to be sharing with you some of the macro drivers that apply in the crypto market. And then to switch over and hopefully with Patrick and you, Fabio, build together some Trading view charts and setups with the new tools that you are introducing to your community and to us. And I'm very, very excited to see those Fabio the gamma levels and the inner market correlations displayed in the chart in the crypto market.

[00:07:07.23] - Speaker 2
Absolutely. Sounds great. Thank you for the introduction.

[00:07:11.02] - Speaker 1
Yeah, 30 minutes. Sorry for that. Okay, if you want, let's go through some of the slides that I brought along so we can have some kind of macro background. What are the drivers in the crypto market? And at Liberty Brothers we say success starts by investing in yourself. So if you take the time right now to actually watch this, I want to say thank you. You're actually investing time, not money right now, but time to get knowledge. And this knowledge applied in the correct way will generate money. That money again will hopefully get you more time and in added time in your life. You cannot also only live life, but hopefully you can also generate more money because you improve your skill sets. It's all about improving skill sets. So you invest by yourself constantly.

[00:08:01.12] - Speaker 3
It doesn't matter if you're a trader.

[00:08:02.24] - Speaker 1
If you're an investor, you will learn one thing very quickly in the market. The learning never ends. So when I started, crypto didn't exist. So adapt or die. Even I have to learn, had to learn about crypto. And it's an asset class that is obviously here to stay. So the risk claimer, that's our risk disclaimer. And this is an interesting aspect, especially for the futures trader. We always have to include the CFTC Rule 4.41, which says, doesn't matter what somebody showed you in the past, whatever backtest you run, it doesn't have to mean that the future will display the same results. It's very important to understand that things are changing. Just like I said in the past, there was no crypto when crypto was very young. Ten years ago, technical analysis worked beautifully because there was nothing else. Now you have institutional market participants entering the crypto market and the behavior of the assets are changing, will be changing, and will continue to change. Why? Because institutions run different models to model the perceived and expected future value of an asset. And 10 years ago that didn't exist in Bitcoin, it was Hodlers and it was the Wild West.

[00:09:16.18] - Speaker 1
And this Wild west is becoming more and more institutionalized in a way. So this is a German word, sorry for that. And oh, this is all in German, I forgot. Okay, I'll translate real quick. So the three most relevant and largest asset classes that we follow is on the institutional side is bitcoin Ether and Solana.

[00:09:39.02] - Speaker 3
Why?

[00:09:39.19] - Speaker 1
Bitcoin has the narrative of being digital gold, so its store of value, Ether has a narrative of infrastructure. The infrastructure of this new technology in Solana is a lot about speculation and innovation within the crypto space. So we utilize Bitcoin as digital gold and a risk proxy is the market risk on. We talked about this last time. So it's risk seeking. Institutional market participants want to expose themselves towards risk taking on risk. That means risk on. If you buy Tesla stock, you are risk on. You are taking on risk in expectation that your investment will grow in value. That means risk on, risk off means we're going to protect our money and we are going into for example the Swiss franc. So if you go towards an indicator that we build here, for example, where we follow the largest eight currencies, not the largest because New Zealand dollar isn't the largest, but the eight most accepted as the standard currencies to follow. You see the Swiss franc in the last, this is the last 30 days has been the strongest currency. While the Swiss franc is a typical risk off currency. And as you can see it is this last week.

[00:11:08.28] - Speaker 1
It's coming off right now. Coming off meaning it's dropping in value. Money is going out of the Swiss franc and where is money going into? Well, if you said right now, for example Jay, it's also going into Bitcoin. I say congratulations, you are seeing something very valuable. This is Bitcoin on an hourly chart today. And this is ether Bitcoin ratio that we'll talk about in a second. So you have Bitcoin as a risk on, risk off as a digital gold. You have Ether like I said, as a tech proxy, a placeholder for how is the infrastructure changing. And then you have Solana as a speculation proxy on these technological changes that are taking place. All right, so we utilize in my processes and institutions do this a lot. An inter market analysis, slash top down analysis, meaning what are actually some of the drivers that, that are responsible for institutional money going for example out of asset class A, let's say stock, and into asset class B or if institutional investors are trapped in an asset class. What do I mean by that? You could be hypothetically Fabio, trapped in an asset class. If you have a fund and the fund is US stocks, then what are you allowed to trade US Stocks?

[00:12:44.16] - Speaker 1
So if there is a risk off scenario, you will hide or shift some of your money out of for example technology or discretionary equities into a sector that is always needed. What's Always needed, for example utilities. It doesn't matter if you have a job or if you don't have a job, your apartment needs to be heated or air conditioned and your refrigerator needs electricity. So you hide within an asset class. Does that make sense so far? So we are following what are the different drivers of, in this case crypto and when. If and when we look at bitcoin, for example, we see we can observe very strong correlations with the equity index, for example S&P 500 and, or the NASDAQ. But we also see a different characteristic of bitcoin where it has a correlation towards gold, then the real interest rate, the dollar and the volatility index. Let me go into these different drivers. So if we look at one of the drivers, the correlation towards liquidity. Bitcoin loves it when liquidity, aggregate liquidity in the financial markets is going from the Federal Reserve or from the US treasury into the capital markets. Some people would say, and this was an old narrative, ah, if they, the mean government is, are printing money, then bitcoin rises as an inflation hedge.

[00:14:28.02] - Speaker 1
That was sort of like the headline. It's not quite correct because what we are actually looking at is liquidity and we're actually looking at real yield. But what we can observe is that bitcoin has changed its character over its existence and is definitely reacting towards the Fed or the treasury pumping liquidity into the capital markets. So bitcoin also reacts towards the real interest rate. Now for some of your viewers, you may not know what the real interest rate is. You may know what your interest rate is that you collect on your savings account or the mortgage rate that you're paying. Let's say you have a 10% mortgage rate or in Germany, I don't know, a three and a half, 4% mortgage rate for 10 years. Okay. That is called a nominal rate. Nominal because if you hypothetically look at it at your bond, this is the rate that's on the bond. So the market has a nominal rate. If we look at the treasury market right now, I can try to open it up. Yeah. And we currently have the US 10 year treasury yield. Let me show you.

[00:15:48.04] - Speaker 3
What I'm talking about is right here.

[00:15:49.26] - Speaker 1
U. S ten year is at 4.346%. Okay. But the, the real yield is not 4.346%. The real yield is the nominal yield minus inflation. So if you take the inflation right now in the market in the United States of America and you could go for example to trading economics and they'll have this, and let me Pull this in so you can see it. So you go to the United States of America and you look at prices and you look at the inflation rate. So currently the annualized inflation rate is 2.4%.

[00:16:33.25] - Speaker 2
Okay.

[00:16:34.21] - Speaker 1
If we go to the one year yield that you get in the United States of America, right now, the nominal yield is 4.075%. So if you take 4.075%, which you think you're earning, and you now subtract the annualized inflation minus 2.4%, you now have 1.675% real yield. Patrick, did I explain this so that you, for example, understood what I'm talking about?

[00:17:08.26] - Speaker 4
Yes, 100%.

[00:17:10.19] - Speaker 1
Okay, good. So you're not getting 4%. No way. You're getting 1.675% real yield. Why is this important? Well, it's important because during the financial crisis and every time we hit the fan, they start printing money and you get what's called negative yields. When we have negative yields, the situation is such that if you leave your money at the bank, you will actually lose money. You have $100,000 in the bank and you think it's growing at whatever the normal rate may be. But if the inflation is so high, the inflation eats away at the purchasing power of the $100,000 and you actually have less money after one year than you thought you had. So now, having explained what real yield is and how important it is, why is it a driver of bitcoin? It's very simple. Gold rises in value when the real yield falls. Why? Well, if I'm not making yield, if I don't get paid interest, I might as well put my money in gold and anticipate that the price of gold is rising. But gold doesn't pay you a dividend, gold doesn't pay you any yield. There's no coupon payment. Okay, if we now realize that bitcoin is considered digital gold, you understand that you have an inverse relationship, meaning when the real yield is dropping in the capital markets, Bitcoin is rising.

[00:18:43.23] - Speaker 1
Does that relationship make sense to you, Patrick?

[00:18:48.10] - Speaker 4
Yes, 100%. And that's also a really good point because this is something what everyone should be understand first. Yeah.

[00:19:00.10] - Speaker 1
That's why today, before we go, hey, here's a chart. There's the gamma levels. I wanted to lay the groundwork so we understand some of the drivers dollar strength.

[00:19:10.22] - Speaker 3
Okay?

[00:19:11.20] - Speaker 1
The stronger the dollar, you can look at it as dxy. For example, as a dollar index towards western currencies is the stronger the US Dollar, the weak the the the more difficult it is for global credit to expand. Very simple. The strong dollar causes problems globally. In the commodity market, for example, oil is paid for in US Dollars. So outside of the United States of America, for any other participant in the oil market globally, a stronger dollar means to purchase one barrel of oil. I need to now exchange more of my, let's say Euros into a dollar so that I can pay for the same amount of oil that I was able to purchase or that I need to purchase given a different exchange rate. So the stronger the dollar, the more headwind that will put onto any other classic asset class. Credit doesn't grow as much because the funding costs are increasing. Equity markets don't like it. There's a strong correlation between negative correlation between the S&P 500 and the US dollar index. And we see the same occurring in Bitcoin. And very important now these days is to follow the ETF flows, the Bitcoin ETFs and the crypto ETFs.

[00:20:47.08] - Speaker 1
And that's also logical. If and when you see that a lot of money, institutional money these days is going into Bitcoin ETFs or crypto ETFs it means we are creating or this situation creates a very large institutional buyer in the spot market. So the mayor, the more the ETFs, crypto ETFs are growing, the larger the base of institutional buyers and the pressure of purchasing Bitcoin in, in the spot market is happening. So Bitcoin is used by me as an additional risk on risk off indicator because we have 24 hour training that's happening in that market. I remember the days and years when Bitcoin wasn't as prominent and, and wasn't as strong or large. We for example, for risk on risk off on a Sunday night we already looked at the Israel equity market. The equity market of Israel because they were trading, they were open today. You can look in terms of risk on risk off at Bitcoin 24 hours a day. Let's switch to ether and I'll hurry it up a little bit because we're already half an hour into our webinar. Either has a strong correlation also with equities, but especially the nasdaq either has a relationship to Bitcoin that's actually quite important.

[00:22:20.05] - Speaker 1
And I don't know how many of you are using the ether bitcoin ratio which we will allude to in a little bit. So we have different macro drivers for ether. We have decentralized exchange, exchange volume and we have what's called gas fees. So the more that's happening on decentralized exchanges, volume trading, the more gas fees get spent and the gas fees are exchanged in ether. So utilization of the network actually means the more activity, the more volume is crossing through decentralized exchanges, the more buying pressure there is for ether. And every single transaction that you see creates these gas fees that are paid for in ether. We also have ether staking and we have ether yield. So via staking in this proof of stake system, it creates less, there's less liquidity. The more stake staking and the more yield generating strategies are being implemented, the less liquidity you have and hence the more demand for ether is seen in the market. And then you have EIPs which are basically how can we improvements on the protocol and for example EIP measure 1559 or merge. And these are technological advances and narratives that come along with these technological advances and that causes demand and causes prices usually to rise.

[00:24:13.06] - Speaker 1
So what does that mean for us when we see that? You probably remember this as well, Patrick, when we had the NFTs. Yeah. And this insanity about the different, the different projects that were being.

[00:24:35.09] - Speaker 3
That were.

[00:24:35.25] - Speaker 1
Being introduced, the apes and the, and the, the. I kept saying, what is the use case of these characters that you can purchase this art, this online art. And then friends of mine who were speculating hardcore in non fungible tokens at the time time told me, well, you can use it in the metaverse, you can be this clown in the metaverse or you can be this ape. I keep thinking metaverse, metaverse. We tried this years ago, it didn't work. Will it work this time around?

[00:25:06.25] - Speaker 3
And no, it did not work.

[00:25:08.09] - Speaker 1
And a lot of the NFT activity died down. But at the time that was a great leading indicator. The more activity in NFTs, the more activity was happening in ETH. So we'll see here that we have strong correlations. And if we would say term bitcoin, the gold, the digital gold, then we could term ether the digital oil, the digital energy that makes crypto move. Does that make sense as a picture for somebody who's completely new, you know, so if digital gold store value, store of value, not money, not medium of exchange, the, the protocol in Bitcoin is not fast enough to be a medium of exchange. So we have store of value gold and we have, so to speak, digital oil in the sense of ether. And the last one that I brought along so that we can lay some groundwork is Solana. And here we have a very high correlation with what's called Altcoin and the Altcoin index, which I can show you in a second. When do you have Altcoin season and when do you have bitcoin season? So also it's a leverage way to participate in some of the mean coin hypes.

[00:26:23.02] - Speaker 1
So what are the drivers? Venture capital narrative and what's called L1 rotations. A few minutes ago I talked about equity rotations, meaning you have a reflationary macro environment. You want to be long equity sectors that are extremely high risk with high beta. Meaning, for example, anything that's in the nasdaq, the Magnificent Five, you know, those are the types of assets that are strong in a reflationary macro environment when you have risk off. We talked about this. Maybe the utility sector will start outperforming because those investors who are trapped in the equity market need to go into into sectors with the lowest beta where they lose the least of money.

[00:27:15.15] - Speaker 3
Yeah.

[00:27:16.05] - Speaker 1
In a risk off environment or in a risk of macro scenario similar to this, we have L1 rotations. So Solana, for example, there was this narrative about being the ether killer. When you have this type of hype, this type of narrative in the market, Solana gets fueled by speculation. So if we have this, it means we have different smart contract platforms coming out. We have different level one blockchains being created. Avalanche, phantom, Phantom, for example. That just means you have a different narrative taking place. And all of this is not this difficult to understand, but it's. You need to find your sources where you can follow which narratives are are basically fueling the crypto market at any given point in time. Otherwise you are trading somewhat blind. And then we have funding rates and open interest also being drivers in terms of we can get very volatile price reactions in Solana. Rock Pulse, they're called. And so Patrick, I'm very interested.

[00:28:33.14] - Speaker 3
I don't know if you.

[00:28:34.19] - Speaker 1
If one of your indicators is applied to Solana, otherwise I'll cut the short because the data is not that easy to get for this asset.

[00:28:41.17] - Speaker 2
We have it. Yeah, absolutely.

[00:28:43.22] - Speaker 1
Super. Super well done. Wow. Amazing. So maybe you can. I'm done. All just a few more slides.

[00:28:50.11] - Speaker 3
Maybe you can talk about it then.

[00:28:51.29] - Speaker 1
Fabio, because that's not easy to get. And then Patrick probably already is building on his zoning approach. At what level you want to go long Solana. So Solana, I would say based on the implied volatility, you want to be very conservative when you are in this sucker and wait for good entry prices, you know, and don't take your profits too early because when it runs. It runs. But you'll talk about that Patrick, in a little bit, hopefully. So it's more speculative and you have to watch the volatility index in equity space, but also its own volatility. So it's a leveraged bet on risk on and it can be a really activated and move when there's a good innovation narrative in the market. Going back to risk on, risk off.

[00:29:40.29] - Speaker 3
When, when and how.

[00:29:42.13] - Speaker 1
We talked about this in every single webinar. But let's look at it one more time because it's so important. If you see the volatility index below 16 or deeper, that is a very high risk on environment. Okay. In a risk on environment, equities will perform well. Rates are rising, meaning bond prices ought to drop. Gold is probably dropping, whereas commodities, especially oil is rising. That will be a typical risk on reflationary environment where we are making higher highs in the equity market. This is an environment when you want to be risk on in a leveraged way. You could probably take a look at Solana from the long side. The reverse is when you have more volatility in the market. That's just a rough indication of Vix above 22, you get more trading opportunities. But you would also probably see bitcoin performing better than for example Solana. Then we have the ETH and the bitcoin ratio. If that's rising, for example, it used to be an indicator for, hey, it's probably altcoin season. And when you see the dollar rising, as I alluded to earlier on, that causes problems for any asset class really. And these days, especially with institutions joining the crypto space, it's causing also potential headwinds for the crypto market.

[00:31:17.27] - Speaker 1
So if you have risk on, you want to be looking at something that has a higher beta to nasdaq. So that's why I said the ether behavior will be beta squared. It will move more. Yeah, Solana may explode. I'm trying to be very expressive here, you know, so you understand. Ah, okay. Bitcoin a bit more conservative, ether more aggressive and risk on. If I want to be really aggressive, maybe Solana. Uh huh. And then the reverse. When you see that the VIX is rising significantly and you see a risk of environment developing, you will probably see that bitcoin may be sinking, especially if the dollar is rising as well. And then even worse, Ether and even, even worse Solana. How can we now generate wealth by being more trading oriented in crypto? The way that we do it is you could do it, we do it, I do it. Is a top down macro approach. I always start with macro and utilizing tools that Fabio built for us with his team. For example, identify a liquidity map in the crypto of your choice. If you, for example, you could say, all right, right now I'm an environment of bitcoin dominance, which we obviously had the last couple of days.

[00:32:42.14] - Speaker 1
What am I seeing in the funding rates and open interest? Do I see that spiking higher? That means the sentiment in the market is pro crypto and pro risk volatility. How can you trade that? I need to realize that crypto as an asset class is a bit like an option that doesn't waste, it doesn't expire. Think back on the Hodlers, the people who have been multimillionaires before. And then crypto tanked and there weren't multimillionaires and now they're multimillionaires again and everybody's super happy. And there's a large base in this asset class that is holding, but they don't have an exit strategy. I'm the last person to tell anybody what to do. I mean, I'm just saying there's also a large percentages of this asset class who will never trade again. Nobody knows what's happening with these wallets ever. They're just dormant. So there's also the, in my process, top down, do I have bitcoin dominance? You know, risk on, risk off? What am I seeing in terms of the sentiment indicators, the volatility? And then which narrative is being played right now? Is there a leverage level one seasonality being played? Is there an ETF narrative?

[00:33:59.14] - Speaker 1
For sure, you just look at the headlines and then you look at the flows and price will tell you and the reaction of price when headlines hit the tape hit the market will tell you, okay, I have an opportunity again. You can look at this, for example, right now. You have an opportunity here where you see institutional buying come into the market. Then it's a, it's consolidating and then institutional interest is hitting the market again. But as you can very, very clearly and simply see, there's less institutional interest at higher prices. There's still institutional interest, but there's less institutional interest. So we're also seeing something very interesting happening at this moment in time. That is the eth. Bitcoin ratio is going negative. This ratio is usually often positive most of the time, if and when it goes negative. This is a great market timing tool. And to wait for the moment that it is going positive again because in that moment in time now it says if I see retracements, I can buy these retracements.

[00:35:13.17] - Speaker 3
But we can get to that in.

[00:35:14.22] - Speaker 1
A second, I think.

[00:35:15.22] - Speaker 2
Jay, I don't know if you're sharing a chart. I've only seen the, the presentation, but.

[00:35:20.23] - Speaker 1
Oh, I was. Yeah, sorry, I forgot that. Yeah, I was showing charts in between. That's, that's bad. I forgot that this stupid. Sorry, not stupid, but this stream cost or whatever stream yard. You have to stop and then you have to start again. Okay, let's finish and then I'll show the charts. Okay. What does not work really to generate money is blindly trading some altcoins. You have to be really involved in discord in the different projects, know the team, follow it. It's time and sense time time consuming. Fundamental analysis similar to equities doesn't really exist yet in that similarity. Just hodling without an exit plan. You could miss a exit. You might as well be more active as a Hodler. You might as well. Right. Understand. Where can I take profits? Where can I get back in? Here's a tool you're creating for us, Fabio.

[00:36:16.02] - Speaker 3
Thank you for that.

[00:36:16.24] - Speaker 1
That we can utilize for that. Or, and, or ignoring the macro drivers and the dollar. You sh. Very difficult these days. And again, you can, you can feel like I'm triggering you. I'm not trying to trigger you. I'm just telling you. Institutions are coming into this market. If you're not evolving, they are changing the market dynamics. What I'm showing you here is a fact. This. You can ignore it and then wonder why some of the drivers and, and your approach, whatever your approach may have been, may have stopped working. Here's why. Because the asset class is evolving. There, there are gorillas entering your asset class. Yeah. Where you were the patriot and the independent and the, the rebel. Forget all of that. There's no more rebellion in, in crypto, whatever, whatsoever. There's. This is. It's turning into another asset class that's giving institutional portfolio in their capital asset pricing modeling more yield for any given expected point of volatility in their capital asset pricing model. Yeah, exposure. So it's the same similar to when we had years ago convertible bonds. They were new as an asset class. When in early 2000 we started with credit default swaps.

[00:37:39.12] - Speaker 1
That was also new. Then we had volatility as an asset class class. That was also new. Over time they get absorbed, integrated into the financial system. Bitcoin is happening right now. It's getting absorbed. Not only Bitcoin, crypto, it's getting Absorbed. And what's definitely going to happen in the next years is that the chain, the blockchain in the background will be utilized for a lot of financial transactions for sure, in real time. And that's just an evolutionary thing. And that is something you can invest in or you can trade it. Okay, this is one of my almost last.

[00:38:21.29] - Speaker 3
Slides that I brought along.

[00:38:23.17] - Speaker 1
There is such a thing that's called an altcoin season index. And we were at 24 earlier on, so we're currently in a bitcoin season. Okay, then gamma levels. We built our exposure map because the gamma levels can act like a magnet. We can use some of the zones that Patrick will hopefully show us as support and resistance zones. And then in the ether, gamma space, ether is much more reactive to implied volatility changes. So we have pre merge, we have Shanghai, we have ETF news, we have ETF flows. So you got, you have the opportunity to be a bit more involved, let's call it that way. And then in salt, if you have gamma levels and you do extremely sensitive, it's very suitable for trading. Very suitable. I usually start with gaging what the crypto markets mood is by looking at Bitcoin. And then I go via the Bitcoin, the eth. Bitcoin ratio as a sentiment switch, so to speak. And then I utilize Solana as a leveraged vehicle to go hardcore if I want to. And I integrate the gamma levels into this liquidity map and I combine it. And we talked about this I think last time, but I combine it with the economic calendar because the institutions who are now also involved in this need news or data that hasn't been known prior in order to change the asset allocation.

[00:40:09.26] - Speaker 1
So if there's liquidity changes in the market, if there are asset rotations in the market, they will now also affect our crypto trading space. Okay, yeah. Funding rates, open interest, ETF changes, all of that is important to us. So that was my, that was my, my 14 slides that I wanted to bring along to lay a foundation to explain to you that the landscape is changing a little bit and that we have different drivers that can help you.

[00:40:41.15] - Speaker 3
That's all.

[00:40:42.04] - Speaker 1
That's the only purpose why I came. I just wanted to show you that there can be information in the market that can help you. I'm now going to stop presenting and show two setups real quick. And then we switch to Patrick if you want. I just want to show this one and this one and explain real quick what you could hypothetically look at if you wanted to in your trading view. Let's see, you tell me if you can see my screen.

[00:41:13.18] - Speaker 2
Yeah.

[00:41:14.05] - Speaker 1
Okay, cool. So I call it Bitcoin. And on the left hand side, what I put is Bitcoin are the candles on a daily. And I believe the data is from Coinbase in this case. And I always have the volume. Any chart without a volume is impossible for me to gain information. Then you will see that this is the s. P500 is this pink line. Then golden is gold, and you can see the dollar. And if you look at this just with your naked eye, you can currently see that the candles are rising, Gold was rising, and the S&P 500 was rising. So you see what we call a positive correlation and you see that the dollar is trading lower. So in that sense we have a negative correlation. By the way, the dollar is always blue in my charts. So make it blue. Okay? These correlations can only be mathematically calculated in the past and they change constantly. But if bitcoin is the digital gold, it's interesting to see when they disconnect, it's. Anyways, you have four different assets here that at times play the same narrative. And if and when they play the same narrative.

[00:42:40.08] - Speaker 1
Let me ask you a question. We have bitcoin making new highs. We have equities making new highs. Out of the three, which one is not currently making new highs?

[00:42:52.09] - Speaker 3
Patrick?

[00:42:53.04] - Speaker 1
Out of the three, this is gold, by the way.

[00:43:00.05] - Speaker 4
Let me look into this.

[00:43:04.00] - Speaker 2
Gold.

[00:43:04.17] - Speaker 4
I don't see it on my end.

[00:43:06.05] - Speaker 1
Exactly. Gold.

[00:43:07.23] - Speaker 3
It's not.

[00:43:08.08] - Speaker 1
Yeah, I use Fabio because you see, I forgot. You probably can't see the screen. Exactly. Gold is not making new highs at the moment.

[00:43:17.29] - Speaker 3
Doesn't mean.

[00:43:18.13] - Speaker 1
Hey, let's go gold. You need to understand a. The dollar is starting to bounce. Okay? If the dollar starts to bounce, that's not very positive for commodities, not very positive for gold. But we would also have to take a look at real yield. Are real yields rising in case. If that's the case, then you don't want to blindly go ahead and buy gold. But it gives you a first impression of what's happening. The next chart that I look at is the same thing, but for eth. So now I have eth. Now of the S&P 500 hundred, I have gold and I have the dollar. And I can already see ETH did not take out its last relative high. Then I look at Solana and I see Solana is ex exhibiting some weakest out of the three. Bitcoin is the strongest, followed by ETH and Solana. Is the weakest. Okay. And here I look at the three versus each other. Bitcoin making new highs. Ether in the process of touching its relative high. And Solana being the laggard, if that's the case, I want to take a look at Solana and see with the gamma levels, if I get a retracement to an interesting level and potentially play it from the long side, does that make sense?

[00:44:42.21] - Speaker 1
I'm not saying this is how you have to do it. I'm just saying this is how I look at things. Okay.

[00:44:47.18] - Speaker 2
Yeah.

[00:44:49.11] - Speaker 1
Okay, cool. The other thing that I built is I look here at the eth. Bitcoin ratio. It's important to me. And what I'm currently seeing with the bitcoin strength, because it's bitcoin season, I'm seeing. Here's the bitcoin season, right? I'm expecting an outperformance of bitcoin. I am realizing, okay, bitcoin is the asset that is currently in the driver's seat. What does it. And I can take this off. What does it tell me about. If the institutions who cannot participate in bitcoin directly, can they indirectly participate? Yes, they can. They could hypothetically. Hypothetically go into strategy. I think a few months ago was called Microstrategy, Michael Saylor's vehicle, Mara Riot or Coin. So I use the same logic here. I look at the different assets that I post here and see which one of them, in this case Riot, for example, we're seeing all the other bitcoin rising, strategy rising, Mara rising, Coin rising. But what if Riot is lagging? Is this maybe an opportunity? Is this maybe the asset that I want to buy? You could take it a step further and you could say, okay, I'm buying the asset that's lagging and I'm selling the asset that's outperforming right now.

[00:46:17.29] - Speaker 1
It's a bit more complex and you can hedge it based on implied volatility. Definitely not something that.

[00:46:26.10] - Speaker 2
All right, sorry, guys. We are back. There were some technical issues. So let us know if you can hear us so you can see us. So we're back with Jay. So thank you. Thank you for the previous session, Jay. This was awesome. And. And basically I think you were going through, obviously the. What's going on at the macro level with the crypto space. And I wanted, before we go into going through the dashboard and going through the charts, sharing why we are moving into the crypto space. So our mission is always to provide an edge for retail traders and the reason why we are Going into the crypto space is because, as you can see from this chart, basically the derivatives market in crypto, which is still at the beginning, but it's been growing pretty fast. So we now have about 30 billion open interest on Bitcoin options, compared to a 5 billion about two and a half three years ago. So again, not only that, we are also seeing, as you said before, the growth of ETFs. We have Solana's ETFs coming in. We have, you know, the IBAT reaching a record high with, you know, 70 billion AUM.

[00:47:43.17] - Speaker 2
And also like, you know, the derivatives market on the future space is also, is also growing. So I think this trend is important and this is also why we are going into the crypto space. So if you want, I can show you what we've done in the crypto space and we can go and then look at some charts as well.

[00:48:04.24] - Speaker 3
Gladly.

[00:48:06.24] - Speaker 2
So, first, first of all, as we mentioned, the option market is one part, but it doesn't cover all the assets. So it's important that we focus on the assets that have a lot of liquidity. So, for example, what we see here, the ones at the top are the ones that are actively with options. So we have Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana Ripple, and some of the other coins. Then there's other coins that are very relevant, but there's no option activity. Right. So we were like, okay, we want to protect, provide enough coverage for our customers so that they can get value and can understand what's going on in the crypto space. So that's when we went into more of our quant models. So within our offering now, you can access option models which are very similar to the ones that you see on equities and indices, like our gamma levels that you can then plot on a chart. But then we have our quant model. So here we have an overview of the crypto market. So from the beginning, you can kind of see the major coins that we cover here. Their performance one month, one day, three months, year to date.

[00:49:18.10] - Speaker 2
And then we have our three quant models for crypto. One is the rsi, which is a reinvention of the traditional rsi. We created our own models which follows the same thresholds, but it's actually statistically create an edge because the, the traditional RSI suffers from, and we talked about this, the alpha decay that everybody's using the same signals, so there's not really an edge behind it. So we develop a new indicator that mimic what the traditional RSI does. We also have a Directional indicator. The idea behind it is really giving you a directional bias on the asset by looking at different factors. And, and then again, I love that you mentioned risk on risk off, because we also now have a risk on risk off indicator for crypto. And I can show you to you in a second and let me know if you have any questions at any point.

[00:50:17.29] - Speaker 1
Loving what I see so far. Excellent.

[00:50:20.21] - Speaker 2
So let's take for example Bitcoin usdt. Right. So first of all we have all also our scoring system, this is looking at option data. So if option and momentum. So for the coins that we do, we do cover with the option side, we will provide our scoring systems. In this case, what we see, we're looking at binance exchange. So we also cover derivative Binance and OkX. And the reason behind it is that 95 plus of the derivatives volume goes on these three exchanges. The rest there's not really a lot of liquidity in the other exchanges changes, so they're not statistically irrelevant. So from here you can see that in this case Bitcoin, we have a very high option score, we have a very high momentum score and we are in a very low volatile environment. So that confirms what you were mentioning before. Bitcoin is in a very, very strong trend. Right. If we look at our first indicator, which is our risk on risk off indicator, this provides a threshold which is 0 is basically when we switch from risk on to risk off. This is done for all our crypto, so it's one indicator for all the crypto market.

[00:51:32.18] - Speaker 2
And again it follows the process that you explained before, which is looking at macro levels, looking at traditional market data to understand if the market is, is in a risk on scenario or risk off scenario for crypto, why is this important? Because if you are going long crypto and we are in a risk risk off scenario, then again the risk is that maybe crypto will suffer because of the way they behave compared to the rest of the asset classes. We also have some back testing results here. So what we develop here is a simple strategy of going long. This is on Ethereum when there is con is above zero and going short when the risk of is below zero. And here you see the performance of Ethereum in red and the performance of the strategy in green. So by following kind of like if we are in a risk on risk off, we can potentially also maybe even outperform the asset itself. And then of course our directional indicator and our RSI indicator here, so you can use them all in conjunction together and then finally we can go into the gamma levels and then we can show maybe how it looks like in a chart.

[00:52:55.20] - Speaker 2
Right. So if we open bitcoin, in this case I'm using Databit. Here we have our traditional net gamma exposure chart. Here we have our swing model. So the swing model is very, very important because again we're trying to forecast where the price of bitcoin could be in five days from now. And here at the top you can also see kind of the success rate. So the levels that we want to watch are 105 to the downside, 117 to the upside for the next five days.

[00:53:35.19] - Speaker 3
Does this update daily, Fabio, the five day level?

[00:53:38.29] - Speaker 2
Yeah, it's a daily level and we're also going to have in the chart now if we can go to the chart, this is really how you guys use the, the indicator. It's also available for crypto. So here we have our bitcoin USD. So as you can see, you know, this core resistance today was a very, very great pinning level throughout the whole session. We then broke through the core resistance with the strong momentum and we kind of like closed right below the one, the max we retraced there. And it's very, very nice because then you can use that in conjunction with all the other tools that you already use. So if you have a strategy already in place, you can use that as well. I think the same process we closed here, we tried to break this core resistance level and again we retraced back. Jacks 2 was a great support throughout the day. So again, double, double support right here. And then of course we also have other coins etc, so.

[00:54:50.03] - Speaker 4
That's amazing, Fabio. And I think, you know, and I think Jay, you can confirm this. If we now looking into the bitcoin market, it's so amazing how many influencers coming now into the market. It's not only the institutionals who are coming into the market, but you see now that many, many influence influencers who I know from the stock market, no matter if the penny stocks or stock market they now coming into, into the bitcoin market but they will push you to something. But I will never trust any person, I will only trust the data. And we have now for you the tools on the hand, on the, on the, on the chart, you can go into the dashboard and you can see what's going on. And thank you Jade, she was bringing this on the point about the crypto, what is crypto and how you're looking for. So the crypto gold crypto and the crypto speculation. So with all the knowledge what we're presenting here now, you have not to look anymore to any influencers. You have not to buy, be influenced from someone. You can make now your own data decision and that's, that's a big, huge value.

[00:56:13.16] - Speaker 4
But if you listen to this already, I know you will not watching any influencer.

[00:56:20.16] - Speaker 2
Yeah, yeah.

[00:56:21.15] - Speaker 3
I think it's all about the data in the end of the day. And I think one reason why you see more and more, whoever these people are getting involved is the fact that it is an asset class where the adoption is now at the highest level, at the institutional level. And I also think, I mean, if the President of the United States of America is generating for his family over a billion dollars since the inception of his presidency just derived from crypto activities, you can see that. I mean, that's the greatest marketing the asset class could have received. There will always be conspiracy theories out there in the end of the day, even during the tulip bubble. Do you remember the tulip bubble? When there was a speculation frenzy in the capital markets a long time ago where people market participants were trading in tulip bulbs. And at one point in time, the seats for tulips were worth more than the GDP of Holland, which at the time was a superpower. Which is just to show that there have always been bubbles and bubbles will always be there. But it doesn't mean that you cannot make money out of, of trading a bubble.

[00:57:54.10] - Speaker 3
You know, we don't know when a J curve is going to come off or not. What we do know is that anytime there's a new asset class that is finding adoption in the institutional space, the, the outperformance, the amazing yields that were available for the first adopters will diminish. They will shrink. Fabio, you mentioned it early on with alpha just degenerating with more and more adoption. But we are still early enough that if you follow the data and you follow the flows, that, and you implement something that is sound and logic, then you can actually generate alpha in this asset class. And I'm very happy that you are offering all these tools to us, Fabio, because they are sensible, they make sense. If you have an edge, if you understand what you want to be in, and then you utilize the tools you have sort of a framework given for the structural implementation of your trade or your investment.

[00:59:03.27] - Speaker 2
Yeah. And also, like, even if you are just simply new to crypto and you want to understand if you are about to go into the market, what should I pay attention to? So we are trying to simplify. Like, okay, so if you look at this model here we are kind of like in a bullish trend where these are the levels that you should be looking for. So if you are trading or getting into the space, if the price in five days goes below that level, then maybe you should really look at the data and see if anything has changed. Right. Or if you are looking for an upside move, then also you might want to look at this level when you are about to potentially take profit. And the reason is very simple because take a look at the back testing data. So we're looking at statistical analysis, right? So there is trigger level at a success rate of 42%. That means that if the level arrives here, most likely there's going to be a lot of chance that maybe there's going to be a retracement. So it doesn't mean that the price is not going to go further, but it means that if you are like having a strategy that is a short term trading, then maybe that's the time where you might want to look at taking some profits or maybe readjust your, your hedges and start, you know, thinking about looking at the new data.

[01:00:25.00] - Speaker 3
Perfect. Absolutely.

[01:00:27.05] - Speaker 2
And then we, you know, we can also then lever, if you are a day trader then you can use the intraday levels that are available for you and you can potentially benefit from these strong moves. So today we moved about $2,000 to the upside. So there's a lot of like potential in this kind of like reaction here.

[01:00:47.04] - Speaker 1
Yeah.

[01:00:47.15] - Speaker 3
And you see that the positioning has gotten longer. That's, that's what you want to, you want to start thinking in, in macro terms. Okay. Money has gone into the space, money has gone into this asset class and they are longer. Why is this important? Because in a risk off move, some of this money, the weaker money will be washed out of that market. So you always want to take note on the chart, for example, where the moves started. And keep in mind that retest of these moves, if nothing has changed on the macro level, have a higher probability of working from the long side again. But if something has changed in the macro environment, these levels have a higher probability of being overrun. And you can utilize them to hold a short position longer because more of the people who recently went long will get washed out. Does that make sense what I'm trying to say? So you want to mark these levels, you want to know where did buying interest come come in and then connect that in your mind the data with what is the macro environment and what is the sentiment. So levels can either be tested and this is your second Opportunity to go long as well or they can be overrun.

[01:02:01.15] - Speaker 3
And then this is your opportunity to stay short or go short. So it goes from one level to the next.

[01:02:07.29] - Speaker 2
And I think to add to that, Jay, again, the models are not crystal ball. Right? They're not. That cannot work 100 of the time because we cannot control a tweet that could come out today or like a news article or a new conflict that would arise. So the, the goal as a trader is really just to understand like you mentioned last time, I really love when you said that when new information is processed, the market reacts. And how do they react? They react by repositioning themselves. So how do they reposition themselves? They can do it through option, they can do it through of course spot trading, momentum analysis. So by looking at this data you can quickly analyze what can change. And I really want to show you a very great example because this is not related to crypto, but it's related to like an investment or like, like you mentioned a risk asset which is Nvidia tech company reached 4 trillion in market cap.

[01:03:03.27] - Speaker 1
Yeah.

[01:03:04.24] - Speaker 2
Two months ago. The situation was not like this. We saw a massive sell off from the whole time high at the time to go back below the 100 level. But look at what the option market did after the news and you know, whatever happened in, in April, we suddenly see a spike in option activity on the bullish side. So the market has really positioned themselves for a potential start of a new Trend. Nvidia at 100 was too good to be true. The market reposition themselves and as a result now we are at over 160. So this was a 60 or 58 or 59 move in just less than two months. And again the option market kind of like gave us an idea that hey, we are bullish again on the stock. We don't know. Of course we can predict that the price would get to 160 but we can see how this could have like really gave us an edge.

[01:04:07.21] - Speaker 4
But Fabio, you triggered me now. So when you're talking about Nvidia. Yeah, when you're talking about Nvidia, there's no surprise. So if you're looking back, I think the last one year or let's say the last two years. I'm sure the last two years. What has happened always before earnings, Nvidia get put pushed to new highs. And when earnings come, what has happened? Both the sell off starting and then we come to them to the new earnings and they push this again to new highs. And it's always the same so this is like uncool. So. So before earnings, we go making new highs. Earnings coming bomb. We start to bring the shit down. And it's always the same. So if you understand the patterns behind this, then trading can become so easy for you. So it's. It's no surprise for me because we are. The earnings will become very soon.

[01:05:06.18] - Speaker 3
Yeah, I hear you, Patrick. I just always, when I teach, for example, I'm always careful about using the words always or generalizing things. I completely understand that you are describing a pattern similar to describing, for example, a volatility rush and a volatility crush. But even the volatility crush after earnings are announced does not always hold, right?

[01:05:36.21] - Speaker 4
Yeah, you're right.

[01:05:37.20] - Speaker 3
Mostly that's all I'm trying to add. I don't want to negate what you're saying. I'm only trying to add because at times we have hundreds or thousands of retail traders listening to a webinar and in the usage of common terminology, always to their brain means always. You know, and I don't want anybody to bet the farm on the next Nvidia earnings crush. No. I've trained people for eight years now and I've seen some insane shit happening. So I'm very careful of those words. That's. I'm only trying to add value to what you. You already said. So just imagine one day the behavior changes. Wouldn't that be an interesting piece of new information?

[01:06:23.01] - Speaker 1
Right?

[01:06:23.20] - Speaker 3
When you see, oh, wow, this time is different. You know, the earnings came out and they did not sell off. It continues higher. What is that information? What would that tell me? That would tell me the behavior has changed. It's even more bullish than ever. Let's go maybe, you know.

[01:06:43.18] - Speaker 4
Okay, yeah, that's a good part. So thank you for adding this in.

[01:06:47.11] - Speaker 3
Just trying to add to the conversation. I'm not saying anything, you know, I'm just trying to add.

[01:06:52.13] - Speaker 2
Yeah.

[01:06:52.24] - Speaker 1
100.

[01:06:54.19] - Speaker 3
I love the, the ability of the crypto volatility to, to be a great trading vehicle, you know, and if you, if you are able in your mind to understand that increased volatility causes hefty rug pulls, that is a market breaking down, you know, that's the opportunity for you to, to go long. That's the opportunity for you to play it via options. That's the opportunity for you to play it via an ETF investment. You want to be patient enough to wait for the next time that an asset becomes really cheap because let's think about it. Or relatively cheap when we try to buy something On Amazon or when we try to buy something at the, at the store, we always wait and, or not always, but we try to get a good price. I try to get a good price. Maybe you guys as well. Right. So hypothetically, if I want to buy an iPhone and they don't do discounts, but I'm just saying. And they would have like a summer sale and the iPhone, brand new, is 20, 20% off. I would love to go and buy the iPhone 20% off. But we don't do that in the stock market or in asset classes.

[01:08:10.05] - Speaker 3
We get scared shitless. And then we start selling, you know, at a moment in time when we should actually be buying and not selling. So when you can take from this that certain assets will not go to zero, for example, the S&P 500 is extremely unlikely to go to zero. And if you look at the past, you will see that crashes that used to be 70% or 50%, they don't happen anymore. You're lucky. If you get to over 30% discount in the supermarket called S&P 500, you're lucky. Well, that has structural reasons behind it because the Federal Reserve comes in and rescues these days, you know, may that always continue to be like that forever. No. Is that the case right now?

[01:09:00.16] - Speaker 1
Yes.

[01:09:01.07] - Speaker 3
So what I'm trying to allude it as when you have the next.

[01:09:06.16] - Speaker 1
Supposed.

[01:09:07.05] - Speaker 3
Catastrophic event and you see an asset, may it be Bitcoin, may it be the S&P 500, or may it maybe be Nvidia, because we just talked about it, really significantly drop in value. Try to realize that this is a discount you're getting on an asset that may be rising again afterwards. This is the time you want to act. You don't want to act every day and think trading is like a teller machine, an atm, like you wake up every morning and you're like, oh, today I'm going to make $500. Well, maybe you will, maybe you won't. But maybe today something happens in the market, like the copper tariffs yesterday or two days ago. These are opportunities for you to act. Or the uranium opportunity that Trump created. Or wait for something that is new, new information. See how the market reacts and see if this is now an opportunity for you to get involved. Is something that at the end I would like to add some. Start thinking, not reacting. Start thinking, why is the market reacting? Now is your time to get a cup of coffee and ask yourself, what is this reaction telling me?

[01:10:26.18] - Speaker 3
And is this, for example, a discount where I can make some money as I purchase something that Is now cheaper than it was yesterday or is this a real problem and this asset has further to draw? And ChatGPT will not tell you and nobody is will you and your own healthy brain can answer that for yourself and then you act accordingly. You don't act to do the same crap every day thinking you will make the same money every day. That's not how the markets work. The market is a continuous opportunity machine for you to lose money or make money. When you actually start thinking about things, does that make sense?

[01:11:06.28] - Speaker 2
Yeah, absolutely.

[01:11:08.19] - Speaker 4
Cool.

[01:11:09.15] - Speaker 1
And your data is.

[01:11:14.14] - Speaker 4
Thank you. Thank you Jay. We highly appreciate this but I want give the people one last gold nugget because I think we are now long time enough online. But let's give them one single nugget. If you be agree Jay, I'd love that.

[01:11:35.24] - Speaker 3
Tell me the nugget.

[01:11:38.03] - Speaker 4
Okay, so I will ask you. So we speaking about Bitcoin and you know mostly from from our subscribers using spx, SPX options and you know the first thing, if you heard Bitcoin and you're not so involved in Bitcoin mostly you will get the answer. I hate bitcoin, I don't like Bitcoin. Crypto is not for me and all this stuff. So how can we change the minds from basically SPX traders that they can use Bitcoin as maybe second confirmation as another tool to get information how the SPX could be working. Is there something where SPX traders can take advantage on the crypto space?

[01:12:35.03] - Speaker 3
Absolutely. I mean especially Bitcoin has a high correlation. You can go into your chart and you can put the correlation coefficient on there and you can observe the opportunities when the correlation switches like try to show early on from positive to negative and back from negative to positive. These switch overs and correlation is these are the best opportunities in my experience to actually start trading the other asset. You know. And Bitcoin has definitely changed over the years its behavior. So you want to do your regular SPX process that you do and you want to have a parallel chart up for example with the Bitcoin and or the Ethereum and have a similar process that you put up there. And then you can for example as in today you can see when the one asset starts changing course and the other asset doesn't. You can start training yourself to also start the getting exposure in the other asset. The easiest thing is if one is lagging and our brain doesn't like change. That's a fact.

[01:13:51.23] - Speaker 1
Right.

[01:13:52.01] - Speaker 3
Because it's energy intensive and our brain doesn't want to be exerting energy. But it, once you start making money by teaching you a new asset class and getting little by little exposure in the new asset class, it, it will actually add to your bottom line in trading. If you see a very large correlation towards one of the two assets, then please be mindful that you're trading the same trade twice. You, you do want to be mindful of that. You know, you don't want to be as it was this morning. You don't want to take 1% risk in the SPSS, SP E S let's call it ES in 1% risk in the Bitcoin. Because now you have 2% risk on and maybe you're thinking you're trading less risk than you are. We often have that NFX where people are long the Aussie dollar and the New Zealand dollar and the euro dollar and I'm like, okay, now you have three times short dollar. What if the dollar rises? You get a kick in the balls, right? So be mindful of the risk that you're putting on. Understand the correlations of what you're putting on, but understand that if you have always traded one asset and you want to get exposure in its second asset to start small and to start collecting experiences in it from here on forward.

[01:15:16.08] - Speaker 3
If you look at my slides again, you want to see that the different drivers in the different asset classes can add regardless if you're an intraday trader of a swing trader or an investor, the drivers are important to know because they will give you an overall sense of where, where you should be trading and, or of where you should be allocating assets. That is the, that's my number one thing. And until the day that I die.

[01:15:41.26] - Speaker 1
I will try to teach people, is.

[01:15:44.05] - Speaker 3
It summer and you are in winter clothes on the beach or is it winter and you're in some of clothes.

[01:15:50.25] - Speaker 1
On the ski slope?

[01:15:52.05] - Speaker 3
That doesn't make any sense. It does not make any sense to always be trading the exact same asset. Because you're not a market market maker at a bank who only makes a market in one asset. Market making does not mean prop trading is completely different. One is, not the other. You are a retail prop trader and you want to make it as easy as it could possibly be to yourself to be in the strongest asset in the best macro environment that this asset has tailwind, not headwinds. Does that make sense? And what you build with the risk.

[01:16:28.20] - Speaker 1
On Risk Office already.

[01:16:30.03] - Speaker 3
And you can see it in your backtest. You can see it in your backtest. The backtest clearly says if you have the sentiment, right? Then a risk on environment for risk on asset generates alpha. And now imagine you not only have the right sentiment, right. You also have the correct asset in the correct environment. So economic growth and inflation is behaving. You want to be in equities. What do you want to be in equities? You know, you want to have the strongest stock or the strongest sector. Will bitcoin or ether react positively in that environment as well?

[01:17:07.00] - Speaker 1
Yes.

[01:17:07.24] - Speaker 3
Can you find out if bitcoin or ether is stronger than the es, for example? Hey, why don't you trade bitcoin? That's what I'm trying to say. That's the nugget. If you have more alpha in bitcoin, trade Bitcoin. Who cares that your brain says, yeah, but I always traded es. I don't give a. You will. The same mouse click will generate you more alpha. So open up your mouth, your mind to that fact. Trade the thing that gives you the most money if and when you put a trade on to begin with. That's my last nugget, so to speak.

[01:17:44.19] - Speaker 2
Yeah, I think this was awesome. I mean guys, thank you so much for the time. And I know we went over time, we have technical difficulties, but we'll upload the correct videos on YouTube and I'll share it with you, Jay as well.

[01:17:56.29] - Speaker 3
Thank you so much.

[01:17:58.12] - Speaker 2
Yeah, absolutely. And yeah, guys, so if you have any questions, please send us an email. Again, the crypto product has been launched for about three days now. We already have very great success stories on our discord. So come and see our members are using it. But if you have any questions, just send us an email infoentorq.com if you want to get in contact with Jay, send us an email. I can put you in contact with Jay directly. And again, thank you so much Patrick for facilitating this. Thank you, Jay, for being part. Your session are very inspirational for us because you are bringing the experience from an institutional standpoint and really simplifying the way you share your knowledge, which is awesome.

[01:18:46.24] - Speaker 3
Thank you so much for having me and thank you again for putting the products out for our usage. We appreciate you, Fabio and Patrick, thank you for our contact. I love coming and working with you guys and thank you to the audience for you traders and investors for spending the time with us. We're doing this for you and I appreciate you all because we, we share the same passion. We love the markets. So thank you very much from my side, guys.

[01:19:11.17] - Speaker 2
Thank you guys. Thank you.

[01:19:14.07] - Speaker 4
Wait. Just. Just wait. Just wait. No, not. Not so fast. So all Right. So we have a. We have always the question, Jay, from the people where they can reach out to you. On YouTube, they find an account, but it's in German. Do you plan something in the future to have something in English?

[01:19:39.26] - Speaker 3
Yeah. I'm building the global income investor right now across asset classes in German. It will be held in Austria this September for the first time. The information is on libertybrothers.com and I'm definitely planning in 2026 to build something in English because there is demand, thanks to you guys. People have contacted me. I'm in contact with people directly, and there is demand to. To further some knowledge in English. My knowledge, my products, you know, what I have to offer. So in 2026, I want to roll this out. If you speak German and you're interested, come join us in September if you want. And I appreciate the interest. Thank you, Patrick, and thank you again for the opportunity to present some of how we look at the markets and our processes that we live in our company.

[01:20:39.07] - Speaker 4
How people can join your event in.

[01:20:42.15] - Speaker 3
Austria, they can go to libertybrothers.com libertybrothers.com and the information is there. I'm also on Instagram. J underscore Medrol. I know I get copied every week.

[01:20:57.22] - Speaker 1
Every week.

[01:20:58.08] - Speaker 3
There's a fake account, but if you want to send me a question, you can always hit me up on Instagram. I know it's sort of strange, but.

[01:21:04.14] - Speaker 1
It'S a new world.

[01:21:05.25] - Speaker 3
And so that's actually where I talk to people. Email is almost useless, as you know, Fabio. Fabio tries to reach me on email.

[01:21:14.01] - Speaker 1
Email.

[01:21:14.06] - Speaker 3
And then Patrick scans me in WhatsApp. And it works immediately. I am glued to the cell phone. So even there's so much research hitting institutional research hitting my email box. I have hundreds and hundreds of emails per day. You probably as well, Fabio, but you are very impressive because you, Fabio, answer every single email. I don't know how you do it. I really don't, because you have thousands of clients, but. But I'm very impressed by how responsive you are. So I have to take a class from you how to manage email inboxes better.

[01:21:50.06] - Speaker 2
Absolutely.

[01:21:51.17] - Speaker 1
All right, guys. All right.

[01:21:53.12] - Speaker 4
Thank you.

[01:21:54.20] - Speaker 1
Until next time.

[01:21:55.22] - Speaker 3
I'm looking forward to it. And, Fabio, again, thank you for the crypto tools. Absolutely love them. More stories of success to come soon. Have a very good day. Greetings from abroad.

[01:22:07.20] - Speaker 2
Bye, guys.

[01:22:08.18] - Speaker 1
Bye.