MenthorQ for Futures Traders

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We are going to start covering our users that trade futures. So we're going to talk about futures trading right now. So let's go into it. So if you've been trading futures for a long period of time, you know of course what the challenges are. The futures market moves fast, there is a lot of leverage and this can amplify both your upside as well as your downside.

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So if you don't account events that are happening like today we had a big VIX expiration and we have fomc, you could really be chopped out very fast. So a lot of the futures traders are struggling and obviously we know how the stats are. The majority of day traders are losing money in the market and end up blowing up their accounts. So we're going to help you kind of like change that and understand how you can use data to be more successful. So the reason why most futures trader fail are very simple.

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Some, most of them use lagging indicators. For example, you rely on outdated technical tools like for example moving averages, MacD, RSI and those tools are great to confirm your idea. But again everybody's using those so they are lagging and they sometimes are not able to provide an edge. Right. Because everybody's using the same data to potentially enter or exit the market.

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The second problem is really risk. So the lack of risk awareness. Because futures are highly leveraged instruments, a small move can actually wipe out days or weeks or months of gains. Right. So most traders really are focusing on making money but they are actually ignoring the bigger question, which is what happens if I'm wrong and what is my risk reward for that trade?

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And the third one is really not leveraging risk and that cause your account to blow up. So without really understanding the volatility, the positioning, the leverage, you are overexposed and you could have really a bad day and you could erase everything that you've done over the past weeks or months. So market is dynamic, you cannot really use the same strategies that works all the time. So you need to be able to be flexible and be able to react to that. On top of that, one of the big trend we've seen in, in the recent years is of course the, the prop trading, the growth of prop trading firms, right?

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So on the surface everything sounds like a dream. You're trading someone else's capital, you can actually start with the low amount of capital, you can scale up and you can keep the profits, right? So it's actually a great model. But in reality there is no free money, right? So prop firms are businesses, they're not charities.

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So they have really strict risk rules so they can cut traders very quickly if they don't show discipline and they profit from traders who fail the challenges. So let's, let's really be honest there. So again, if you're relying on lagging indicators, ignoring risk and you're joining a prop firm, this won't really save you because you're going to actually potentially blow up your account and end up paying a lot of fees in those challenges to get back and trade. Right. So the real hedge in futures isn't really about getting access to more capital, but it's about understanding risk positioning and the levels before you put on a trade.

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So now let's go over some of the pain points that futures traders struggle with. The first pain point is really identifying meaningful price levels. So too often you are chasing candles without understanding really where the levels can be and where the real positioning sits. The second pain point is really trend exhaustion. So many traders get trapped fading moves too early or chasing trends too late because they lack reliable signals or forward looking indicator.

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And finally risk management because futures are highly leveraged. If you don't really calculate your risk accordingly or your volatility, you could actually face really big losses and that could actually blow up your account. And that's where kind of like we are trying to come in here. So we're actually trying to flip the script for futures traders. So instead of providing you with lagging indicators, we give you leading data signals.

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So for futures, whether you're trading your own capital or you're using a prop firm, you can actually start using option positions, which is actually a forward looking sentiment indicator and you can actually use that to increase your risk and understanding where you could actually position yourself. So the goal is really to provide you with clarity, structure and to help you trade like a professional, like the institutions do. So you can know the levels, respect your risk and execute with more confidence. Right. And the goal is really to help you be more successful, but by leveraging a data driven approach.

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So let's walk through a real life scenario that really happens very often. So let's imagine that you're trading ES futures, right? And you wake up in the morning and you go through your usual preparation and everything in your technical setup is flashing a buy signal. So everything looks great, your moving average are pointing higher, the overnight sessions shows a lot of strength and your price action can signal that there could be a potential breakout of your technical levels. So the story is really telling you that you should really go long, right?

[00:06:09.11] - Speaker 1
But there is A problem if you only look at the chart, you're actually missing a lot of the invisible forces shaping the futures market. So here is what Mentor Q actually can show you before you take the trade. So let's actually look at es. So we know we can show you that ES is actually approaching a big cold wall or big call resistant level with a lot of gamma expiring today. That's a warning sign.

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And the reason is very simple because when price moves into these large option strikes or option levels, dealers are forced to edge and they're actually going to edge by buying or selling the underlying. So that can create a resistance right where you are looking to go long. So that can actually be already a first signal for you. Second, we can see our positive or negative gamma condition. So we can see if compared to yesterday, we've seen an accumulation of negative gamma.

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And negative gamma means that dealers are forced to chase price. So they sell on the way down and they buy on the way up. And this tends to amplify volatility. So instead of a smooth breakout, you are now walking into a potential whipsaw. So like maybe there's a pinning effect at that level and maybe you see a lot of choppiness throughout the day.

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Third, we also have advanced model like our CTA positioning, right? So CTAs, we're going to talk about it later when I show you the dashboard. They are systematic funds that provide, provide or remove liquidity because they actually trade by following technical signals. So they go long or short futures and that means that if they are decreasing their positioning, then maybe there's not enough support to an upside move, even though your chart says it should be a breakout. So on the surface everything looked bullish from your, from your strategy, but the underlying flaws is telling you that the long trade can be fragile.

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So it can be a risky and, and this is the edge that we can give you. So you don't just see a chart panel, you see a positioning landscape, right? So instead of blindly buying into resistance, you actually pause. Maybe you size down your long and maybe you delay your entry until you see actually confirmation of these big gamma wall being broken. Or maybe you can simply flip the script and look for a reversal trade.

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So the point is that instead of trading using lagging indicators, you're actually now trading with context so you understand where the forces that drive the market, which are the option dealers, the option, the systematic flows can actually make or break your trade. So this is how you can actually trade with data. You can actually have better entries, you can actually stay away from bad trades. And basically you are literally mimicking the way professional trades. So just think about that.

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Professional traders, they don't look at charts, they look at positioning, flow and risk and that's why they are successful. So yeah, so the idea is that we can help you bridge this gap and show you what the professionals are looking for in a way that you can actually make good decisions and being actionable.

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Now let's look at another scenario and this time if you are trading NASDAQ futures, let's say that you normally trade one contract and your risk management is structured around the 3 to 1 risk reward ratio. Your stop loss is around 30 to 40 points and that's been working well for you over the past few weeks and months. So for the past few months the market has been in a steady uptrend with low volatility. Your stop are rarely hit and the moves are smooth and you feel comfortable about the system. So this has been working for you for months, but then something changes, right?

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And you open the mentor queue dashboard and suddenly the picture looks different. The market is now in a negative gamma environment. The Q volatility score is now at 5, which signals a high volatility condition. And this is a very important information for you to have and here is why. In a positive gamma regime, market makers hedge in a way that dampens volatility.

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So that's why your 30, 40 points maybe have worked for months and the market was spinned and volatility has been very low. In a negative gamma regime, on the other hand, the hedging flow flips. So market makers actually hedge in the same direction as the market moves. So they sell when the market goes down and they buy when the market goes up. And this tends to amplify volatility.

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So that means that instead of really a calm market with smooth swing, you can actually start seeing really fast move both to the upside and to the downside.

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So what does this mean for you? Right, so you've been trading with 3040 points with a 3 to 1 risk reward. This means that this shift into a negative gamma positions means that your risk just increase without changing nothing. Right? So the stop loss that worked for months in a negative gamma environment maybe it's not gonna work and it's gonna actually trigger your stop loss more often because this just create noise.

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Your take profit target may not be hit in the same smooth fashion because those swings are actually wider and less predictable. So if you trade with the same size and the same stop, you're essentially taking on more risk than before, whether you realize it or not. So this is one of the most common ways that trader block because they have static rule and they don't actually modify them if the market changes. So whenever you see something like this, then you could actually trade differently. You could actually trade using micro contract, you could actually trade with more, more stop loss levels and more take profit because the string are going to be higher.

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All right, so now we're going to another, another situation that a lot of you are probably going to be familiar with. The volatility, the low volatility trap. This is very common in the market. So the market has been calm for weeks. Volatility is low and ES is actually going higher in a steady uptrend or a steady channel.

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Every dip gets bought. We see higher highs and higher lows. So this is the perfect trending environment for a trader. And obviously you're having a lot of success here. You're confident your trades are working and your P and L curve just keeps increasing.

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But here's the trap. Low volatility kind of brings us sometimes a false sense of safety. So you start increasing size, you tighten, stop because you know that the market won't move much and you may even like trade, trade thinking that everything is easy, right? But the problem is that let's say that now you open up the mentor queue dashboard and you see something that the chart didn't show. The option score is lighting up, moving into a bearish territory.

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Positioning shows that dealers are shifting into negative gamma and implied volatility is rising quietly. Even though realize volatility on your charts look the same. So this is a typical scenario of what we call the calm before the storm, right? So on the surface everything looks stable. But under the hood something is changing, flow is shifting and again, this could be the beginning of a sharp move.

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So what happened next? If you ignore the data, you keep trading like it's business as usual. You size up, you run tight stop and you're overexposed. Then the market shift. So like a headline, for example, like the event that we're going to see today or like a flow shock or dealer adjustment triggers a fast move that you don't that really is not covered by maybe like a big event or a big news, but basically your stop are now being hit and weeks of profit are wiped out maybe in one or two sessions, right?

[00:14:42.00] - Speaker 1
And this is exactly how a lot of traders also blow up their accounts because they confuse low volatility with low risk. Right? But those two things are not, are not the same. So low volatility doesn't mean that the risk is low. Markets can look safe until positioning shift and make them fragile.

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So most traders don't look at positioning, they don't look at flows. So they might be, they might be trapped into an event that could actually wipe out weeks of profits.

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All right, so now we are going to go into the dashboard and we're going to show you some of the tools that we have and how you can use them for your trading. Please send any questions. We're going to do a quick Q A after this session, then we're going to move on to the next type of trading. So just give me a second.

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All right, so the first thing as a future trader, so if, if I'm trading futures, the first thing I do in the morning is come to my dashboard and I basically would review the main index and etf. So if you trade, for example, on. On. Yes, you should probably look at spx. If you trade, if you trade nq, you should probably look at qqq.

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I always also monitor SPY and the vix very, very important because that can tell you how positioning change across different assets. Right. So understanding positions and understanding the data, very, very important. So the first step is looking at my gamma condition. So we mentioned that in positive gamma, typically volatility tends to be lower.

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In a negative gamma environment, typically volatility tends to be higher. So if I'm trading. Yes. I want to also make sure that SPX and SPY or QQQ and NDX are confirming the picture. So we see our gamma condition here we can look at implied volatility versus historical volatility.

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So we can see that even though implied volatility is higher than historical, we're still in a very low IV rank. So volatility has been very low on the asset.

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Then I can also come here and monitor gamma exposure. We're going to talk about that in a second by looking at spx. So I want to monitor if we are. If we see a lot of positive gamma or negative gamma building up on spx. I also want to monitor my zero DTS flow on SPX to understand if there could be potential.

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Interesting point here. So we see a very, very big gamma gamma level there. We're going to talk about that in a second. And then I can also look for example at our matrix. We're going to show this, how to read this as well.

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But basically I want to monitor within all the option chain. Is there something, is there some event that I should be paying attention to so for example, on Friday, 38 of gamma and 32% of delta on SPX is expiring. So again as a future trader I need to understand what this means and I need to understand what could happen at the end of the day because there's a lot of options that are expiring for that day. The second thing is now I can actually move into my futures section. So on the dashboard on the left hand side you can actually see the future section.

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So the first thing that I want to do is look at the depending on what asset you trade. So we cover about 25 different futures. So so let's say that you trade index future. You need to understand which is the contract that you should be paying attention to. So this week we saw the rolling.

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So this week is the last week of the September contract. We're gonna start to roll to December. But actually the option market has already moved to December. So on the December contract we see about 60% of futures options, open interest and 49% of volume. So again this is important because the levels are calculated on futures options.

[00:18:58.13] - Speaker 1
So if you are using levels on the September contract still you're missing a big part of the picture because the market has already moved to the December. So click on December contract, we open up the futures dashboard and then we can go over the data also on this. So we can also see that we are also imposing gamma on the ES contract. So that which is confirming our view. We also can see our positioning happens at different strikes.

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We have a big, big core resistance at this 6700 level. Our gamma flip point which is our hival level is a 6,6620. And then we have some negative gamma positioning lower but our put support is all the way down 6200. You can also monitor the 0, etc. Flow.

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So here are the option expiring today. So you see there's a lot of positive gamma here. And for Today the core resistance 0dt is 6725. So clearly market is looking at the event for this afternoon and kind of positioning itself. And then of course you have all the other expiration there.

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Then you can also look at the matrix and you can see how much gamma is expiring specifically on the ES contract. So here we have the yes option chain. This is looking at futures options. So not option on SPX but actually options on yes, right, Very, very important. So we want to see if we are overall in a positive or negative gamma.

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So for the 22nd we have some negative gamma positioning 10% of negative jacks expires on the 22nd. And for the 19th we have about 13% of gamma expiring there. So very, very key.

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So what do these bars mean? So the green bars indicate a positive gamma exposure which tends to stabilize price and reduce volatility. The red bars indicate a negative gamma exposure which can amplify price, move and increase volatility. And those typically represent big market reaction areas that you should be paying attention. This is where dealers are hedging.

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This is where dealers will come in and basically very, very important. Let's go back to the matrix of SPX in this case and let me show you how you can read this table. So these tables is really a simplification of the full option chain of the asset, in this case spx. So you guys know how hard it is to read the option chain. There's a lot of information, there's hundreds of options contract, you know, dozens of expirations.

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So it's very, very important that you understand how to read this table. So what this table does is really simplify what's happening at each of the option chain. First we are calculating the total gamma total delta of that part particular expiration. Here you see the number of days to expiration. So you have our zeroities, etc.

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And then you have three important columns here which are the JAX normalized, tax normalized, and open interest normalized. So by looking at the whole option chain, how much gamma is expiring for each of the expiration, how much delta and how much open interest? Why is that important? Because after this date, 38% of gamma exposure is no longer going to be there. So the option expire, 23% of open interest is gone after the 19th.

[00:22:37.19] - Speaker 1
Right. So very, very important. Here you can also see the change in gamma and delta over the past day. That means that at the close of yesterday, 69 million of negative gamma has been added for the September 19th expiration compared to the previous day. Overall, we've seen an increase of negative gamma positioning for a value of 332 million compared to the previous day.

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So again, this can give you some ideas on how is the market positioning themselves and how you could actually read that data.

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Then we can also go and look at this in more of a screening format. So if you click on our screen, as this is something that I always do in the morning, I click on our Gamma screeners and I come here and I look at the highest change in jax. This tells me the positive increase in Gamma on different assets. So what's very interesting. Today we've seen quite a big increase of gamma exposure, positive Gamma exposure on Vix, iBat, China large cap.

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And, and then if we go back to our screeners, we can also see the highest negative change in gamma. So what does that mean? That means that more negative gamma has been added on spx, on iwm, on gld. So that can also give you some ideas of, okay, how is the market position compared to the previous day and what are they doing, how are they hedging themselves and so on. So that can become an interesting indication.

[00:24:20.23] - Speaker 1
The next step we're going to Talk about IS CTAs. Right? So you can find our CTA's models here. These are going to be very important for futures traders. And why is that?

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Because CTAs are commodity trade advisor funds. Think about them as large hedge funds that are simply trading systematically. So using algorithms, by looking at technical setups and by trading by trading futures. Right. So we cover different types of futures contracts.

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So we have, you know, our indices, bonds, currencies, and then you have your currency tables. So for those who are trading Forex, you can Also look at CTAs on forex or commodities and so on. And then you have the chart. So how can you read this data? Right, let's go into the main table.

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So first of all, we can see that CTAs have been increasing their positioning on both SPX and NASDAQ compared to the previous month. Right. You can then go back into your chart and you can see the green line is the CTA's positioning. Right. So how can you use this kind of data as a futures trader?

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This data should be used to confirm the direction of your trade. So let's imagine that you see this table and you see that CTAs are actually buying more futures than a month ago. And let's say that you are short. You want to short this. You are actually going against liquidity because the data is telling you that CTAs are increasing their position to the long side to the upside.

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So by shorting the market, you're actually going against a large chunk of liquidity that has been added to the market here. Right. So similar to, to that, you can also use that in gold, silver, crude oil and so on. Right. So very, very important.

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So CTAs very key.

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Next we can go into back to our dashboard and then I'm gonna pause for a second and then I'm gonna answer any question that you might have. But the, the next thing is using our Q score. Why is The Q score so important. So the Q score is your barometer. It's something that can immediately tell you what's happening with the assets.

[00:26:43.05] - Speaker 1
So let's imagine that you've been on vacation for the past weeks or you haven't really been following the news. What can I understand from here? The Q score is looking, is our proprietary score and is looking at option, activity, momentum, volatility and seasonality. So right now we are in a very bullish bias on SPX coming from the option market. So the option market is still positioned for an upside move.

[00:27:08.25] - Speaker 1
We can see it also from those chart here. The momentum is very strong. So we are actually at the maximum level. And for those who, if you want to learn more about this score, we have dedicated videos that can show you how to use it. And then basically volatility is kind of low.

[00:27:24.26] - Speaker 1
So we are in a low volatility environment. We have no signal coming from the seasonality as of today. But we can also look at the, at the signal coming from the options score. If we scroll down into the chart, we can actually see the historical time series of the Q score. In this case, we are looking at the option score.

[00:27:46.02] - Speaker 1
So take a look how predictive this data can be. When we see a shift in options positioning from very bearish to quite bullish, this is when we see the start of kind of this trend, then the market kind of drops. Here we saw the big at the end of July, we went from a very positive position into a very negative positioning. And that's kind of like this downside move. Now we're moving back into a positive positioning and then the market is now moving up and now we are moving from a zero score, very bearish to a four.

[00:28:18.23] - Speaker 1
And this is like the recent rally that we've seen, right? So understanding not only the value of the score, so just not look at just the number, but also look at what happened historically, right? What happened when the Q score went from 4 to 0 on SPX. And you can kind of understand why that is important, right?

[00:28:42.06] - Speaker 1
The next thing, so once, once you do this, once you get your bias, once you get your ideas, whether it's I want to go long, I want to go short, I want to trade with option, then we can go into our, our indicator, right? And I'm going to show you a couple of new things that are going to be available for you very soon for trading futures. So first of all, you have your end of day levels right here. We can look at different futures, we can look at different assets, you could also overlay that with your intraday levels. So you can actually convert intraday levels from SPX directly into yes or nq.

[00:29:19.18] - Speaker 1
And then you could have your blind spot level. So let's look at it today. So the market move up and then dropped. And this was right here at BS7 and JAX2. JAX2 very important level.

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Let's move to NQ for example.

[00:29:48.08] - Speaker 1
All right, so now we see BL4 acting as a strong support to the downside. The market is now moving up together with J3. So now we have an important gamma level and an important blind spot level. Then we have our core resist and we saw the break we tested and then we went all the way down. So the this level acted as a strong resistance and then the market is now stalling around this JAX3 level here.

[00:30:14.12] - Speaker 1
So very, very important. Right, so you can use that to potentially build your trading plan. We also have an interesting feature within the indicators, let me show you here that you can use to actually create your trading roadmap automatically. So I could actually build my trading roadmap here. I could remove the drawing and this is just gonna help me create those areas where I might be looking to be trading in and out.

[00:30:47.22] - Speaker 1
I can reduce my ratio if I want to see more areas, more boxes. And then I could use this as a roadmap for the day on how to plan my trades if I'm trading futures. Whether you're trading NQ, Gold, etc. So here is what the indicator does. The indicator also allows you to convert levels coming from another asset.

[00:31:10.20] - Speaker 1
So QQQ, NDX, yes, etc. And here you can quickly create a trading roadmap. The new thing that is actually coming this week is our scanner. So we are gonna give you the ability to now have real time alerts on on levels by using the TradingView infrastructure. So this is going to be released in the next few days.

[00:31:35.18] - Speaker 1
It's going to contain levels for the majority of assets that you would potentially look. So From ES to SPX to MAX 7 and so on, these are the end of the levels. And then what you can do here is you're going to be able to also customize if you're trading stocks, if you're trading crypto, or if you're trading assets that are not covered here. You'll be able to upload levels right here. And this will allow you to get also alerts on those.

[00:32:05.15] - Speaker 1
You can also show our different data points. So we are actually going to be able to add our Q scores directly into the Watch list. So here you can monitor the different assets in real time. Are we in a positive or negative gamma condition? What is the Q score of these different assets?

[00:32:25.13] - Speaker 1
Right here you can add, remove, etc. You can also be alerted on any level. So if you want all of them, if you just want the, the major one, the primary levels. And you can also be alerted on breakouts or breakdown. Breakouts are breakout from the bottom to the top.

[00:32:45.13] - Speaker 1
Breakdown are from the top to the bottom. So you want to be alerted when the price crosses from below to above or from above to below. Once you do that, you can actually come here, set up an alert and this is going to alert you on all these assets real time. So big powerful tool available for you guys as of next week.

[00:33:15.23] - Speaker 1
Let me just stop here so that we don't get too alerted. And then the next thing, and then we're going to answer some questions. We're going to pause for a second. Let's go over the power of intraday data. Right.

[00:33:31.09] - Speaker 1
So what I want to show you guys is an example coming from yesterday and then we can also look at an example coming from today. So let's focus on yesterday. Right, Yesterday. And I'm going to Open up my Q. Q. Q. From yesterday and I'm gonna move into the intraday section and what I'm gonna look for is our JAX difference versus end of day or JAX difference versus the previous snapshot.

[00:34:00.07] - Speaker 1
What this is showing me is the changing gamma every 30 minutes. So every 30 minutes we have the snapshot 14 times per day. So you can see the timestamp at the top. And then I'm gonna go Back to our 930 snapshot. So this is 9:35 at the Open.

[00:34:19.09] - Speaker 1
How does gamma change compared to the previous day? Right, so we open up with a very strong positive gamma, which is the opening price here. So we are opening up with a gap, we're opening up higher. But then what happens to the next snapshot? We're now going back into a lot of negative gamma piling up.

[00:34:38.14] - Speaker 1
These numbers are pretty strong. So then what you see between 9:30 to 10, you're seeing a strong downside, downside move, right? Then you're moving up and then the picture is kind of similar until kind of like 12:30 or 12. What happens at 12? We're here 12 and 12:30.

[00:35:01.28] - Speaker 1
The market kind of bounced back up right there. So what's the takeaway from this? Like always use, you can use this data to understand how flow changes throughout the day. And whenever you see shifting in positioning from red to green, which is from negative to positive. You can actually use this data to confirm your trade potentially, or to even, like, decide whether to take an opposite direction.

[00:35:27.00] - Speaker 1
So whenever you. So, for example, if you were short here, you could have exit when you saw the changing in gamma. So you could have exit when you saw the change at around 12:30, 12:45. Right. So this can give you an idea on how you can kind of manage the trade throughout the day.

[00:35:44.23] - Speaker 1
And then again, we can also look at it how it is with today.