Swing Levels after FOMC

[00:00:03.13] - Speaker 1
Good afternoon, everyone. Hi, Patrick. Welcome back.

[00:00:08.10] - Speaker 2
Welcome back everyone.

[00:00:11.16] - Speaker 1
Today we're gonna have a very good session. It's gonna be on swing trading. We just had obviously the fomc. So here you can see the news. We had a rate cut today. We're going to see how the market reacted and then we're going to see some levels. But we are also going to talk about our swing trading model and how you can use them for your trading. But before we do that, quick disclaimer, as always. All right, so the first thing we're going to do for those who are not familiar, we're going to go into a presentation and we're going to show you our string trading model and how you can use them. And then we're going to show you in the charts how they played out today. And now they. We could have looked at the data for the past. What do you think, Patrick?

[00:01:17.05] - Speaker 2
Yes. Let's go. I would see. Yeah.

[00:01:20.11] - Speaker 1
All right. So if we look at our swing trading model, the idea behind the swing trading model is very similar to our volatility band or our one day expected move. But we are trying to look for levels at five days and at 20 days. So we provide two snapshots, five days and 20 days and within the model year. What you see in the chart is on the left hand side you see the historical price of the asset and then you see how the bands have performed over time. So you have here our upper bands, a risk trigger. And then on the right hand side right here you would see the levels for the next period. So next period meaning either the next five trading days or the next 20 trading days. So you see here that we have our upper band, our wrist trigger here and we're going to explain in a second what the levels mean at the top. You also see a back testing. So we're going to show you this as well. But essentially the goal of this model is, and we went one step further, further where it's not only to give you a volatility band for the period, but also give you a directional bias.

[00:02:36.03] - Speaker 1
And by looking at gamma delta, option metrics, option Greeks and other factors, we are basically trying to see if we are in a bullish or bearish trend or in a bullish or bearish bias. So the model always has two levels. We either have an upper band or a lower band and we always have a risk trigger. So when you look at the chart you will always see an upper band or a lower band. We're going to show that in a second and Then you're going to see a risk trigger. And the risk trigger could be at the top or at the bottom. So if the upper band is present, the risk trigger will be at the bottom. If a lower band is present, the risk trigger will be at the top. The upper band basically represents the highest price that the level predicts in the next period, whether it's five days or 20 days. And the goal of this is really to help you identify potential resistance level that could occur in the period when we have an upper band. We're gonna see it. We're also gonna be in a bearish bias. And you can see the red color.

[00:03:43.17] - Speaker 1
But let's. Let's look at first the other level. The lower band really is the support level over the next five or 20 days based on the model. And kind of like it provides you with some key areas where either it could be an entry point or a stop, stop loss and so on. So, so you can see it here. And then finally, the risk trigger, which is really an important part of the model. And it's a level that could potentially signal market movement. So it could become a resistance level, as we are going to see in some example today. But it could also be a trigger point where we could see, if we start a new trend, we could see really like a price volatility increase above that level. So here also we have our backtesting, so let me make it bigger where we see basically the level, how it performed over the past few months. We released this model on July 16th, so we're still building all the historical data or the history, but we have around two months of data. So how to use the model? Right. So first, as we said, the model can give you a directional bias.

[00:05:08.21] - Speaker 1
So here, for example, we have an upper band and we have a red color. So we see basically a bearish bias. Right. So if we see an upper band, it means that the model has a bearish bias and you can really distinguish it from the color, the color red and the upper band at the right. If we have a lower band, again, the color is green, so it's a bullish bias. So based on the model, we could be at the start of a new trend, or it could be a level that could hold for a potential upside movement. And how can you use this level? So as a swing trader, the upper and lower band can really help you define your roadmap when you're looking for an upside or a downside move. If the price approaches the upper or lower band, it could really be a potential reversal and we're going to show an example today on spx. And if the price breaks the risk trigger, then it could really be a sign of an increased volatility. So you could use those level in this way. You could use them both as a stock or an option trader.

[00:06:20.03] - Speaker 1
So you could, you could basically plan your trade if you're an option trader with your strikes or if you're a directional trader and you trade long or short, you could use this level trading stocks as well. And then finally, if you are an option seller and you're looking at collecting premium, we developed this model for all our users that are right now zero DTE traders. But like with this model you can actually look for more time. So you can go further in the future, five or 20 days. And you could use this model to first collect more premium and second minimizing the risk. All right, in the meantime guys, please send any questions and basically if you guys want us to cover any companies, any ticker, please paste it in the comment as well. All right, so let's go first in discord and let's see how we can get the data. So the first thing is we type our swing keyword and we now have different commands that we have available. So first is our five days are 20 days. And then we, we're going to show you that we can actually get the levels directly into trading view as well.

[00:07:41.26] - Speaker 1
So let's start with five days for example and let's do spx. So this is the data on SPX as of last night with the data from yesterday. We are in the process of recalculating for today after the close. So what we had yesterday we had a lower band of 5127 and a risk trigger of 5,741 for the next five days. As you can see here, this is the the back testing. So the lower band at the success rate of 71 over the past 14 days. On 14 days, the string model had a success of 64 in the past 37 days. The success means that the price would have closed above the lower band or the next five days in the future or below the upper band five days in the future. Right. We can do the same for our 20 days. So if we look at our swing model 20 days. And then now we have a lower band success rate of 95 on 22 days. And we see that levels right here and our upper band at the 94 on 17 days. So again, this is kind of like the results based on how the price has moved over the next five days and 20 days.

[00:09:06.29] - Speaker 1
But now you can also request the levels directly into trading view. So if I type swing levels again I can click on string levels here and I can type in my SPX command and I can get the string for training view. I can also do swing and I can do my list and I can now type my pickers and I can now get the list that can then be directly imported into TradingView. So now let's jump on the charts and first of all let's look at the price action for today. So here we have two indicators. We have our premium indicator with our gamma level and then we have our premium indicator with our swing level. So the first thing we see is that straight after the event we have a big pop on the spx. We went all the way up to the one the max, came back down on the same candle and then kind of like stayed around this area for until like 235. So during the event and then kind of the price bounced back from that level. If we look here we see the one day max of today or as of yesterday.

[00:10:22.11] - Speaker 1
But we also see the risk trigger of 911 which is a level that is still valid that was posted five trading days ago. So to look at this data again we can always go back here and we can come on our string levels and we can go back in time by using the back arrow and we can look at our 9 11. And these were the level that were posted on 9 11. So we have a risk trigger of 5666.27 which is this level here. So as we can see the level that was posted 5 days ago was now kind of like acting as a rejection area that caused then the potential downside towards the close. Don't know if you want to add anything there, Patrick.

[00:11:25.15] - Speaker 2
Yeah, so the only thing what I would be at is look at the one day max and the one day man. So it's always fantastic to see how the one day max and one day min are playing out. So people always looking for objective support and resistance. But what, what you get with Mentor Q is you get this based on data. So the one day min and the one day max is a calculation based on volatility. So we give you an overview how big could be the move to the upside and to the downside. And this is very helpful to calculate also your risk. And I cannot stress this enough to say okay look, look to look into this because if you're looking into this so you can also go in the in Our board maybe you can, you can show the liquid map so then you can make and chose or you have an idea to make a sense today to go into the market. So we haven't one day expected move to the upside or to the downside from 0.85. So is this something what makes sense for you? 0.85 I would say everything what is less than 0.5 I will take hands off but 0.85 is okay.

[00:12:48.26] - Speaker 2
It's you. You can, you can take, you can take this, you can, you can patience but if you have maybe something different. So look at this Nvidia is the best example. 3.114 100 Nvidia will take my attention. So this is something where you can look as trader first make the sense to watch this dog to watch this indices to watch this future what else you're trading. Take first a look into one day expected move and then make a decision about how you risk your size. And yeah it's, it's amazing. So this is something what I can tell you about this.

[00:13:32.29] - Speaker 1
Yeah. And again the swing model currently is available for all our coverage of stocks, ETFs and indices is not yet available on futures. But we can easily use our indicator to convert our SPX for example in this case swing levels to es. So the way I did that is very simple. I come in the indicator, I upload our SPX swing levels and I now converted them to. Yes. So as we can see that area even on ES if you're trading futures really hold pretty well on here. And we also have our gamma levels. So this was a very important kind of like focus area during the move that you could have added to your chart. And then you have also like our more important levels. We have our core resistance, our 1D max here as well. Really strong resistance there.

[00:14:38.10] - Speaker 2
Yeah. And again it's again we're hitting the one day max. I'll be sure if you're looking to NQ we will see similar things and, and if you notice so it's. It's. It's based on your target so you can target something. So if you get the push to the upside from the fomc the big bullish candle and and you see we going through all levels and one day max is not so far away. So this could be. So no financial advice but this could be some sign that the one day max is in play and you can target this. Yeah, I like it. So it's.

[00:15:24.21] - Speaker 1
Yeah. And again if we look at, if we look at our stocks and we can so here we have our gamma levels and our swing levels. We if we take away our gamma levels, we now have our levels. This case on Nvidia again we can go back in the bot. Everybody's looking at Nvidia right now, of course. So we have our string 5 days Nvidia here we can see our lower band 107 risk trigger 123. We can go back in time up to 5 days. So by clicking on the back arrow. So on 912 we have 110 and 128 which was this one. So 110 and then 128 which is right here.

[00:16:37.12] - Speaker 2
Yeah. And also, and also what I really like so based on Nvidia is that nothing really changed. So if you look into the swing trading model levels, of course there are some some little points to the upside based on the risk, some little point to the downside based on the lower band. But at the end we see that nothing has changed on Nvidia we we are if you're looking to the bigger picture on Nvidia the there's also. We are in the range but the risk trigger gives you also a good idea. Is there something really changed? Is there something really big, big thing what could be taking also your attention. So at the moment, personally this is my point of view. I would say on Nvidia nothing has changed. So everything is in play. What what the swing levels was giving us. So there's no big change that we that we see in the moment the lower band below 100 or that we see the risk trigger below 130. So this has not happened. So this is for me also some sign where IBS a swing trader will look into it. Is there something. What must take my attention is the risk trigger going now below 130.

[00:17:59.29] - Speaker 2
Is there something what I have to be in my mind lower band. Did we go now below 100? No, nothing yet. So and this is something what what I would be monitor every day. And then based on this on the swing trading levels I will go into the options metrics and see also the expiration dates and have an idea what has changed. So we're speaking very very often about positive gags, negative gags and all the stuff with with tax in the same way and then look to the expiration dates what's take your attention and then see if. If you see some market shift also in this area. And then we have also this is really cool. If you're looking to the right side, you get also the the expected move, how much we can move, what is expected. And this is something, what a swing trader will be also taking my attention.

[00:19:00.01] - Speaker 1
Yeah. All right, that's great. Any question, guys? Any. Any stock that you would like to us to look for, please paste it in the comment.

[00:19:17.14] - Speaker 2
Yeah, we have the question about GLD and SLV. So that's the ETFs.

[00:19:22.16] - Speaker 1
Sure.

[00:19:22.26] - Speaker 2
So we can. We can look into the swing trading model.

[00:19:27.02] - Speaker 1
Yeah, so for ETFs, we have the coverage. So if we type in again swing five days, type in gld. Okay, so here we have. Let me open up, make it bigger. So we have a lower band here, a risk trigger here. So 232, 242. And always look also like at the back testing results. So if, for example, if you had sold using the swing lower band, if you sold options going five days in the future, you would have had a return of 97. So 97 of the cases over the past 37 days. The price five days later closed above the lower band right here. We never had an upper band in those periods. We was always like, kind of like a bullish bias there. And yeah, and then we have a risk trigger here as well. So on 75% of the cases, the price closed below the risk trigger. Let's do slv. All right, so here, similar picture. We have a lower band of 26 and our risk trigger of 29. Again, lower band, green color, bullish bias from the model. We have a swing model success rate 81% over the past 37 days. And then what you can then do is come here and do our swing and then type in swing list and then type in GLD and slb.

[00:21:16.13] - Speaker 1
We get the levels, go back to our trading view, And we can open our GLD here. And then here we have our swing trading levels, and we have the same for srb. So as we can see, in this case, we had a shift from 911 to 9 12. So we have a move up of the upper band. And then kind of like the last few days have been kind of in the same area, but also the risk trigger really moved up from 911 to 916. So you see like a big shift in those levels.

[00:22:02.16] - Speaker 2
And that's kind of exactly what I mean. Fabio, when we were speaking about Nvidia, so on Nvidia, we were seeing nothing. So of course we were seeing something, but we were seeing nothing big activity to the upside or to the downside. Here on slv, we see it really clearly. So.

[00:22:22.04] - Speaker 1
Yeah, exactly.

[00:22:35.25] - Speaker 2
And then we can Also go to the multi expiring from the net checks to see if we see something like this. So if you be a swing trader this would be your number one looking to the multi expiration to get an overview about GLD slv, what is going on, how it looks like.

[00:22:57.27] - Speaker 1
Yeah, yeah. Yes. This would give you. Here we have the 918 which is the next expiration. We have our 920, 27% of JAX expiring there and then we have our October 1018 where we have 29 of JAX expiring there and then we have our December expiration. Those are key data points that you might want to look for when analyzing gld. But we also have of course our gamma levels on the future. If you want to look at the gold future as well, you can do that as well Here. Here we have our GC contract and then here we have our data here.

[00:23:53.22] - Speaker 2
And it's, it's, it's so, so interesting to see that there's less, less red. So most of the time only green. So this is also some signal for you. And if we was going to the multi expiration this was really, really cool on gld. So we were seeing that this trend will be really strong also in the future. So look at this my friends. So we have, we have less red activity so negative stuff in the future. So this is amazing. This is also a good sign for you where you should be taking advantage of where you should be plan your swing trades. But you have to look into this every day. So this is a routine for you. It needs maybe only five minutes. Look first in the swing trading model, go in the net checks multi exploration. After this go into the options metrics and then see if something is going on in the macro in our community where Shasta is posting something. Maybe he's speaking about gold so that you get be informed and then you'll be on the good side as a swing trader. So simple and easy stuff and it needs maybe only 5 minutes maximum per day to to get really good updated.

[00:25:18.04] - Speaker 1
Yeah. All right. Any question guys? Please send this in in the comment.

[00:25:38.20] - Speaker 2
I have a question. What is your routine?

[00:25:43.17] - Speaker 1
So my routine would be I would start the morning by looking at. So first I would open obviously my watch list. Look for example at any price movement. So you know if for example the futures overnight are moving. If there is like indices or stocks that I hold in my portfolio that have a movement overnight I want to monitor that. And then I kind of like start from the indices. So I would come here in the Bot and I would look at first our liquidity snapshot. I would open our spx. And the first thing I want to monitor is the expected move, of course. But I want to monitor the gamma condition. So whether we are in positive or negative comma. Then I want to look at our net gamma exposure chart. And I want to see, okay, like yesterday for example, if this was the picture from yesterday, how has the picture changed from today? So visually, like, are we seeing more red positioning or green positioning? Like, so is the market kind of like more bullish or more bearish? Then I look at the matrix and I want to monitor basically any change in gamma that it could be relevant.

[00:27:04.02] - Speaker 1
So right here we have positive or negative change over one day. So like if people are decreasing or increase gamma over the the day, that means that, you know, maybe there's something going on in terms of positioning. So I want to look for that. I always look for our swing levels. So I want to see, okay, are we still in a bullish or bearish bias? All right, is there a shift there? So if something is changing, then that could be an alert sign. So it happened before and we covered this a few weeks back where there was a shift between lower band to upper band or vice versa. And that was a trigger of like, hey, maybe like there's going to be a reversal soon. So like I want to monitor that. Then I obviously depending on the strategy that I use. So if I'm trading options or, or just simply like buying stock for swing trading, I would want to look at our multi expiration. So look for, is the picture the same in different time horizon in the future. So are we seeing green bar just on, on one expiration or are we seeing the full picture?

[00:28:15.04] - Speaker 1
So where is the market going? And then I can do do more complicated things. Like I can look at our SKU chart, for example, and I want to look at implied volatility of calls and puts by looking at this model. This is the 25 delta risk reversal model. So I want to see if this can give me some ideas. Look at earnings. Yeah, so I think that would be kind of like my, my routine. What about you, Patrick?

[00:28:45.13] - Speaker 2
Yeah, so as I want say so I won't be make it as simple as possible because as a swing trader for me, I would see how I can bring mentor Q in my trading style. So this would be my first idea. How can mentor Q help me? And if I be new on mentor Q, I would, I would take it on the easy steps. I would say look first in the swing Trading model to see what is this. If we see some changes. We were seeing the difference between Silver and Nvidia. So as I was saying on Nvidia there's nothing happened. And on Silver we were seeing this really good how this was changed the levels on Silver. So then we can see okay, something has happened. Then I would then I would thinking about okay, why is something happened. So then I would go in into the multi exploration and to see if there's also some shift or something happened in the multi exploration on Silver. If I see something there then I will go into the net checks to see the daily and then I will looking back so to see when the shift would be happened.

[00:29:56.06] - Speaker 2
One was the time where some something was happened. And after this what is really important for me is always the options matrix. And maybe you can open the options matrix again no matter what someone yeah this. So as a swing trader I would say to myself okay, how long is my average holding time as a swing trader? Let's say 40 days for example. So then I will go from the expiration date to the next 40 days. So this would be maybe I don't know, December, something in December or something like here. And then I will pick the date where we have the options expiration to see when we have the weeks in this month to see how the exposure, the gamma exposure, the delta exposure will be changed day by day. And also the expected move so that I can manage my risk much better. So if I know we have an expected move on I don't know, 100 points, 300 points or 30 points, whatever you trade. So I can manage my risk much better. And this would be something what I will do daily. And if I have time and this is something what I will say to everyone.

[00:31:22.20] - Speaker 2
So as a swing trader most of the time you have not to do so much. You have to check your position daily you have to educate yourself. But when we're speaking about educate yourself. I will take every day one lesson from the Mentor Q Academy. So educate myself. Because what most of the time people asking me or you Fabio is hey, what are the levels? Meaning what is put support? What is call resistance? What are the lower band? What is other risk trigger? I would be become the expert in the levels to understand this if especially if I be new in the options world. So if you be maybe only a stock trader more swing trades I won't see what is this meaning put support. I won't understand this. And this would be my bonus on the day. But this would be my routine. So simple and easy.

[00:32:18.14] - Speaker 1
Yeah. And if I can add also we also have our screener. So let me. One second, let me log in. Another thing I would monitor is our option screener and I'm gonna show you this in a second. In the meantime guys, please paste any question again if you have. All right, so if we go into our screeners, one that I would always monitor is the first one here. So we have our gamma screener similar to what we saw in the Matrix, right? Where we see the change in gamma, we now have a screener that can tell you exactly what are the company that showed the highest change in Jax over the past day. So I would always come here and I would say, okay, wow, it's interesting. Q. Q. Q. So an increase in jacks of 88 million yesterday compared to the day before. IWM 107 million. Right. So if I'm basically swing trading any of these assets, I want to know basically the change of the delta from one day to the other one. So this is a very good way of like having a clear picture of like, like hey, wow, Google has 52 million in gamma increase over the past, over the past day.

[00:34:16.06] - Speaker 1
We also have our delta, you know, so highest change in index as well. So we have the same principle here. So for example, we have qqq, Amazon, Tesla, we also have the highest negative change in Jacks. Right. So again, what are the. So here we see tlt, which is obviously inverse correlated to QQQ in this case, right. So we have a decrease of 82 million in TLT. I yield corporate, so gold, you know, GLD, we have 55 million. So that is telling me a story that is now being confirmed by data. Right. Then I want to come and see at my gamma levels. So for example, if I like to trade our put support screener, can I see any interesting companies here that I could potentially choose for the day that are approaching our put support. Right. So maybe I want to trade reversals. Maybe I want to like see for potential a volatility shift. And I, I would look at that. I would also do the same thing with our core resistance. So in this case we have NDX this morning was approaching core resistance. We had IWM2. So really interesting data sets there.

[00:35:31.06] - Speaker 1
Then I want to come and see unusual option activity. Right? What are the companies that are experiencing unusual activity? And I can see the data here. So smci, we have Carvana intel, right? So you have the data. So this data updates daily. Very good. The way of like getting some ideas for the day and Then you can also go back and see the data in the bot. So very, very, very good tools that we have here.

[00:36:03.28] - Speaker 2
For swing trading ideas. This is perfect. So if you're looking for swing trading ideas, you want looking for something you are, you're looking for, for the put support screener, call resistance screener or the deck change. So this is something what is really powerful. So, so see this as a trade idea. To get trade ideas. And then you put this, you put the trigger on your chart. You look, look into this. If this will be fit your, your trading interest is this fit your A plus setup and then we're looking together into this, into the models and then we can build our trading strategy based on this. So yeah, it's powerful.

[00:36:44.10] - Speaker 1
Yeah.

[00:36:47.11] - Speaker 2
And again it's so important to understand. So first, first of all your strategy is the most important thing. And then learn how Mentor Q can help you learn and understand how you can implementate step by step the the tools for mentor queue in your trading system. Every time when I have the one to one zoom calls, by the way, what is for free where I help the people to implementate Mentor Q in his trading system? This is always the question, hey Patrick, what is the first step what I can do to bring Mentor Q in my trading system? What are the levels meaning and all this stuff? And the answer is most of the time really simple. Learn and observe how the levels are working and then start to implementate this step by step, step into your trading system. Simple and easy. Don't eat the cow, eat the steak. This is a really good stuff to know and this is something what I always follow and you should also do this. So we have big, big tools on Mentor Q. We provide for every trading style, everything. But again, don't need to go eat the steak.

[00:38:05.28] - Speaker 2
So step by step, implementate the Mentor Q in your trading system and then become an expert in the market.

[00:38:14.15] - Speaker 1
Yeah, thank you Patrick. Let us know. Guys, we went a bit over the 30 minutes but if you have any questions, as always, you can find our information on our website. If you go on mentor Q.com you have access. So if we go back here you can access all the models. So you can, if you want to learn more information about what we talked about it today we have our swing trading model right here. Here you can basically look at what that means. We also have all the documentation here. So this is part of our guides and all the different features that are available for every model. And then if you have also questions, reach out to us via email. And as Patrick Said if you then become a free member you can also book a live session direct with with Patrick right here. So join our discord. Click on this link and then you will have the possibility of booking a zoom call with Patrick which I think is an amazing opportunity for anyone who is looking to learn from trading. And yeah.

[00:39:33.09] - Speaker 2
And by the way you can ask any questions as long as trading related.

[00:39:39.11] - Speaker 1
Yes.

[00:39:42.03] - Speaker 2
Yeah. So so the main goal is to help you to understand Mentor Q to help you how you can implementate Mentor Q in your trading system. And of course if you have any answers about our models, about our levels, I'm more than happy to answer all the questions.

[00:40:01.24] - Speaker 1
Yeah. And then for the rest of the week we have some really good events still. So tomorrow we are going live in the morning and then we have our blind spot level event again we did one last week so if you want to learn more about the blind spots levels you can come here. There's a recording here. But we're going to have another session tomorrow. So if you're interested in learning about blind spots tomorrow 4pm and then we're also going to have a session in the morning to go through like some levels pre market.

[00:40:38.06] - Speaker 2
Tomorrow will be really interesting to see overnight how how the FOMC was working out overnight and I think there's will be very soon something happened also in Japan. So where we have to look in our economic calendar and we want to look look in the economic calendar take a look into Japan. So this will be half an impact also in the market. So but we will speak about this. We have tomorrow the 9am we have on Friday the 9am and then we have weekend. But think about what Kobe Bryant was telling us. Never rest in the middle, rest at the end. We have the middle of the week. So by the way so see you tomorrow my friends. Have a nice time, relax, refresh your mind and we see us tomorrow.

[00:41:26.03] - Speaker 1
Thank you. Thank you guys.