Trading Session – FOMC – Live

[00:00:05.18] - Speaker 1
Hi everyone. Welcome back. Hi, Patrick.

[00:00:12.17] - Speaker 2
Welcome, everyone. Nice to see you.

[00:00:18.17] - Speaker 1
Today is our last trading session for the week and it's FOMC meeting very soon. Very exciting. Big event. Big after the election. Before we start, please let us know if you can hear us and we're going to share our disclaimer for a few seconds as always. All right. Welcome guys. Welcome, Tim.

[00:01:02.02] - Speaker 3
Hello, guys. What's up?

[00:01:03.20] - Speaker 1
How are you?

[00:01:04.26] - Speaker 3
Fine, it's good.

[00:01:06.28] - Speaker 1
Are you ready for the event?

[00:01:10.07] - Speaker 3
Yeah, I'm always ready.

[00:01:12.23] - Speaker 2
Hello, Tim.

[00:01:14.07] - Speaker 3
Hey, Patrick. How is it in Dubai?

[00:01:19.13] - Speaker 2
Oh, I'm. I'm not in Dubai at the moment.

[00:01:22.04] - Speaker 3
Are you Germany?

[00:01:24.19] - Speaker 1
Yeah.

[00:01:25.01] - Speaker 2
Also not.

[00:01:27.22] - Speaker 3
So let me guess.

[00:01:29.05] - Speaker 2
I cannot say I'm a secret place. I cannot say we have many Americans here.

[00:01:34.28] - Speaker 3
Oh, you're in Russia?

[00:01:37.01] - Speaker 2
No, no, not in Russia.

[00:01:39.13] - Speaker 1
Europe. Europe.

[00:01:40.28] - Speaker 2
In Europe.

[00:01:41.22] - Speaker 1
Europe. Where are you, Tim? You're in.

[00:01:45.06] - Speaker 3
Still in D.C. falls Church, Virginia. In the suburbs of D.C. nice. We have like 80 outside.

[00:01:56.12] - Speaker 1
Okay.

[00:01:57.11] - Speaker 3
It's completely nuts. It's summer.

[00:02:00.05] - Speaker 1
Yeah, it's. I'm in New York now, so it's pretty warm as well. Very nice.

[00:02:04.01] - Speaker 3
Oh, did you get stepped already?

[00:02:08.14] - Speaker 1
Not yet. All right. Welcome guys. As always, share any questions you might have for us. And I think while Patrick is set up, maybe Tim, I'm gonna put the spotlight on you for kind of like a macro view ahead of the event. Also, following the elections, what do you expect from the FAB today?

[00:02:37.16] - Speaker 3
Hi guys. We are live actually. That's good. Do we have listeners outside from the community?

[00:02:44.27] - Speaker 1
No, that's the community.

[00:02:45.29] - Speaker 3
No. So if you read my stuff in the channels, I always wrote basically the same the last weeks. Right. So elections fomc volatility risk premium priced in, blah blah blah. The unwind that is happening right now, the outcome of this, you can see to the charts, I guess. Russell yesterday through the roof. SPX Q's higher Vix obviously down we fall yesterday 22%, today 5%. So basically that what the market anticipates, the red sweep. Right. Senate House and Trump as president. But I think how is there still counting? Right? But they had like 210 seeds an hour ago or something like that. Yeah, it has happened. So people are getting rid out of the hedges. Maybe they monetize, maybe they close. They are piling into new loans. So election stuff is done. Right. It's a little bit interesting. We have seen today some profit taking in the dollar. Hard to say if we are seeing new highs here because was pretty interesting. When was it? Friday. Last Friday. They kind of played a Lower outcome of Trump making as as a president but on Tuesday big gap up we shoot up to the summer highs so we are taking some money out of here.

[00:04:30.06] - Speaker 3
So yeah election wise it's. It turns out that what the market is has expected happened already so we are done with this.

[00:04:42.25] - Speaker 2
Okay.

[00:04:43.06] - Speaker 3
That's nothing new. So for FOMC today there should be also Nothing new right. 25 basis point cut is baked in probabilities at around 97% yesterday and in the morning Power is not a guy that makes surprises. He never did this. He did it two years ago during the checks in the whole meeting. Markets nearly went limit down that day. So here will not do this today and what I'm basically looking at is how volatility will act today. Do we have crush of Vix below 15? That would be cool. Also means I'm looking for ES longs but not up there right? Maybe test of the opening prices today we had a pretty strong opening and NQES SPX queues today simply bought since 9:30 in the morning. Those are those days where every bit is getting yeah Chewed up from the market and every ask it's always pair a lot of icebergs. If you guys have for footprint charts you can see it over there pretty clearly. Prices always around time weighted averages. Those are flows that are coming in all the time. Right. It's a little bit hard to trade. I usually skip those moves and wait for way way lower prices.

[00:06:27.23] - Speaker 3
Maybe you will have this during the press conference because usually the market is a little bit filler. Then some people are pulling limits out which gives you a spot price that moves a little bit more actively. That stuff I want to look today but as mentioned VIX has to be in 15 or yeah maybe lower. Also the outlook for next FC which is in December if we get a further rate cut Powell will likely address that. The market and the FC people are aware of inflation is upticking a little bit right. What a wonder if you cut into an environment where economic growth is happening which we also pointed out the last weeks month 6 it's always the same story guys cannot say something new to this because we are still in the bull market. And yeah two days ago during elections Patrick mentioned that he tracks muscle intraday. This is some sort of a. Yeah let's call it leading indicator small caps how they are doing. That's also something I will watch today. We did not see higher highs today during cash session. Oh we are basically yeah at the open price from yesterday.

[00:08:05.12] - Speaker 3
Speaking of futures here RTY and I Want to see uptick here as well, right? That the last people that are buying yesterday during the day small caps or maybe get squeezed out today making new room for buyers and yeah as you can maybe see I'm a little bit bull biased today also for the FOMC because from my view there's nothing new, no big surprise and The Fed cut two months ago 50 basis points right and it would be even the bigger mistake to say now okay we don't cut any further they would admit they make a mistake with the 50 basis point cut back in the weeks. I mean that's just my opinion. I say it was a mistake but I think we will be more smarter in 30 minutes.

[00:09:19.15] - Speaker 2
Yeah guys I'm sorry that I'm not sharing at the moment. I feel like I have a lacking on my site. I don't know why I have a two point difference between my broker and trading view so I have to figure out why this has happened but let's.

[00:09:42.20] - Speaker 3
See.

[00:09:45.10] - Speaker 2
Maybe it's the broker I don't know. Could be that this is a broker I close many windows as possible I'm sharing only my trading view only my. My metatrader, not my trading view for you guys because I don't know why.

[00:10:19.10] - Speaker 3
My platform is lagging and Chad, how are we doing? Did you trade today? Did you trade yesterday? How was it? Green? Big green? Red? Big red.

[00:10:36.29] - Speaker 2
Oh I'm. I'm down 15000 at the moment. I was too big too cr.

[00:10:59.08] - Speaker 1
What about you Chester this morning?

[00:11:02.17] - Speaker 3
No, nothing. Nothing I find nothing. I hate those days when you have these small melt ups that was one setup in the ass. I also put it in the channel in the discord but I missed it so yeah it. I don't care.

[00:11:27.08] - Speaker 2
So I'm training now purely price action. No worries so let's see.

[00:11:39.17] - Speaker 3
Let's see if the Fed is life.

[00:11:55.06] - Speaker 2
Maybe 6000 on ES for a little short but was not worth it. Hello Terry, I think you. You are the first time here Terry. Terry Hockett ratings all.

[00:12:10.17] - Speaker 3
Patrick knows all the names already.

[00:12:14.04] - Speaker 2
Yeah, sometimes yes oh sorry. No trades yesterday and today.

[00:12:24.04] - Speaker 3
Yeah, those melt updates are pretty. Pretty hard to trade at least from me well if you're trading us and you get a pullback of 3 points 12 ticks I mean what is this right.

[00:12:56.28] - Speaker 2
To look at this so my broker look told me 2021, 21184 and one other tell me 2117810 points difference 5 points difference how could this be possible?

[00:13:15.03] - Speaker 1
7825 now or.

[00:13:20.21] - Speaker 3
Do they thin out the book maybe during events like that?

[00:13:26.05] - Speaker 2
No, I think it's. It's a little bit lagging.

[00:13:31.20] - Speaker 3
But it's metatrader. You have these ping numbers anywhere right where I can see the milliseconds, I guess.

[00:13:40.26] - Speaker 2
Oh yeah, it's, it's. It's a long. But I'm connecting with virtual private server so.

[00:13:47.01] - Speaker 3
Oh. Yeah, we all BFF after this week. That's right. Because much of stuff has happened.

[00:13:59.20] - Speaker 2
All right, we're getting the numbers I think.

[00:14:01.18] - Speaker 3
Yeah.

[00:14:02.04] - Speaker 2
So let's see. I have also my, my mobile phone there. So then I have to trade over my mobile phone off. But you see what I'm doing.

[00:14:20.04] - Speaker 3
So let the rock pull. Begin.

[00:14:42.25] - Speaker 1
Quarter point. Yeah.

[00:14:47.27] - Speaker 2
As expected. Fabio, I think. Yeah.

[00:14:59.12] - Speaker 3
Labor market easing and solid economic growth.

[00:15:07.10] - Speaker 2
Fabio, I think it's better when you show your trading view and I tell you if I get filled or not I get crazy lacking. Sorry my friends. Let's see if this will be stopped this. So at the moment I have no open trade on my side. So nothing is filled. If we're getting the breakout. I. I will think about this but at the moment. So no it's lagging.

[00:16:20.26] - Speaker 1
So we're back 6,000 almost.

[00:16:45.09] - Speaker 2
Bobby, what is your NQ price at the moment?

[00:16:49.06] - Speaker 1
21 170.

[00:16:52.26] - Speaker 2
180.75.

[00:16:54.18] - Speaker 1
173.

[00:16:56.05] - Speaker 2
Now I have 183. I don't know.

[00:17:31.21] - Speaker 3
So there's the Russell new low of day. 393 lows from yesterday.

[00:17:54.11] - Speaker 2
Yeah, my broker is lagging. Sorry my friends, I will not taking a trade at the moment if as long my broker is lagging.

[00:18:28.28] - Speaker 1
Yeah, we are at 178 now.

[00:18:34.09] - Speaker 2
I think I have a delay from one minute. So I'm on 21174 and you on 21 179.

[00:18:50.01] - Speaker 1
So now. Yeah.

[00:18:55.16] - Speaker 2
Now I'm on 2180. But you're on 2175. 4. No, I will not do it. So then we have the p. So then we making comments. No worries. I hate this but we will do this like this. So when I was looking into it. Hey, hey Balo, let's go. Give me one minute. Excuse me, I'm a little bit sick today. Maybe you can go to the four hour time frame from the NQ file. All right, so then let us a little bit looking to the left side and see if we have something what can. Can hold us to the upside. I think it is always important when we have sessions like this that we're looking more to the left side to see is there something. Yeah, look at this. We have the last top where the call resistance is. So we was breaking but this can be coming also and resistance. So if you're getting the down move you have to be aware of the call resistance UDT and call resistance. Why what other levels are telling us? It's it's looking like there was the top before. So we are already breaking truth this. But it's really important to know where are the key areas and I think the call resistance and call resistance codt.

[00:20:47.12] - Speaker 2
This is one of the key, the key areas today if we were getting a down move in the press conference, think about. We have always the keywords. What could be the keywords? Keywords labor market inflation and maybe Fabio you was, he was telling about something about this, about the keywords.

[00:21:06.04] - Speaker 1
Yeah, absolutely, yeah. So the big funds will be scraping the transcript will be listening to the keywords will be trying to use models NLP that can kind of like based on the keyword activate some some algorithms. So absolutely.

[00:21:26.03] - Speaker 3
Yeah.

[00:21:26.17] - Speaker 1
That's one of the strategies always like you know, read the news and activate the the algos based on the news. So keywords are very, very important in this case.

[00:21:37.16] - Speaker 3
Yes, the Algos like 100 times more trades then you can make a minute, right?

[00:21:45.09] - Speaker 1
Yeah, yeah.

[00:21:45.29] - Speaker 3
I mean this is all like arbitrage over there is so tight. Let it be two ticks. That's all.

[00:21:52.15] - Speaker 1
Yeah.

[00:21:55.17] - Speaker 2
100 and yes. Got 30 second high low range from the FOMC release. I use this as pivot. Yeah, that's good. Thanks for sharing. I know that some people using anchor reave up now on the 1 minute or 2 minute or 5 minute candle. So there are different ways and, and I like this. So if, if you share something or other people share something how you read the fomc. As I said before, we are all a team. So I was saying this in the beginning. I think on Monday we are team here and yeah. So if you see something, let us know. If you have some good trade ideas, let us also know we are a team.

[00:22:43.08] - Speaker 3
Well, what you guys should consider is MQ is already above one day max, right. ES is below and NES there's a call resistant a 6000. So that's a pretty heavy option level. Of course 1D max is a mathematical level. Right. It's just the probability is very high and we have this range today. Speaking of that, NQ is way more stronger today in mathematical terms. Right. So that's also the reason why I'm looking at all of the future markets constantly. I want to see the other markets like Dow Jones Russell also upticking. Right. That I can justify my long bias in ES that we maybe get some lower prices. Looking here at G1 is975 that's also the open range any yesterday 77 it's 80 ticks away. It's a little bit would be big down move and you have to be very very ballsy to catch this other stuff I'm looking is session re up it's 98445 in ES and then Q is way way too low 21079 but yeah Vix has to go a little bit downer to 1515 below. Then I want to see uptake Russell Dao and then find the entry in es. What I will not do is jump in the range like we have now in yes.

[00:24:44.16] - Speaker 3
Or if we are spending a very very long time below the open prices from today. Right.

[00:24:54.28] - Speaker 2
That makes sense.

[00:24:57.08] - Speaker 3
So as you can see I'm watching a little bit bigger ranges. Right. That's I'm not really good at catching the market when he has falls 15 ticks go long over there. Can also look at other stuff. I don't know bonds today it seems to be the up move is short covering after elections feels a little bit to up move. Fx. I mentioned the dollar the other pairs are pretty much up as well. So for markets basically dead. Our thoughts on the VIX well.

[00:26:04.29] - Speaker 2
Crash.

[00:26:05.11] - Speaker 3
Yesterday but we ended higher so people still have hatches on for today. Maybe get down in the morning. Today we never reached the 15 now we are at 1540 ish. Basically the same. I say you need the outcome after the press conference when this let's call it event is done for the day and then you have to see what happens.

[00:26:51.14] - Speaker 2
Foreign.

[00:26:56.06] - Speaker 3
Just imagine how many people how many portfolio managers are sitting on big big gains this year. So don't be surprised. You are seeing the VIX uptick into those events here. And speaking of market participation and for volumes yesterday after the election and the outcome for it, just as an example you had nearly 2 million contracts in ES. Right. The monthly average is around 1.2 million. Today you have under 800,000 contracts. So this also tells you people are they have caution in the market. Right. And they also waiting for a better opportunity. Boil this down to day trading. You have to do the same quality traits over quantity. Unless you are a scalper then go for it.

[00:28:03.18] - Speaker 2
Go for it. Yes.

[00:28:05.02] - Speaker 3
Yeah, yeah. Because you're doing stuff completely different Patrick. Right. That's just want to mention.

[00:28:12.24] - Speaker 2
Yeah, but. But do you know what really pissed me off? I'm down US$15,000. I'm so happy to bring it back now, but my broker is now lagging. That's this. Yes. So maybe I have today a red day. What is normally not a red day?

[00:28:31.11] - Speaker 3
Well, obviously the best advice you always get is restart everything new. Right? Yeah. You do this.

[00:28:38.27] - Speaker 2
Yeah. I was starting everything new. Yeah, completely. But I'm a little bit afraid to bring some. Some contracts in the market with a bad price. Yeah. But everything is good. So maybe it's protecting myself.

[00:29:05.09] - Speaker 3
Maybe it's a sign now.

[00:29:10.17] - Speaker 2
All right. Yeah. Scott, what do you think will be happen on 6 000es? Are the people more bullish or bearish on 6000? Everyone is speaking about the 6000 but no one is giving us any clear idea what will be happened.

[00:29:34.23] - Speaker 3
So first of all there is basically no one at 6,000. We have an ESF just like 213 limits on the offer. 998 has big exposure. 600 on the offer of 630. Now 6,001 is pretty big. And more interesting is a new daily high above 6002 because of the stops. Right. Which can move the market a little bit higher. It's already pretty thin in the market. Bit of 50, 60, some 80ish contracts. It's nothing.

[00:30:33.04] - Speaker 2
I think today it will be really slowly because we are already so high. So we was going very, very straight upwards today. So I don't know what we can expect from fmc. Did we see crazy moves could be happened? But my personally idea is like we will not see any big crazy stuff. So we were seeing the reaction on the, on the press release. So normally we have a crazy down move and crazy up move and then we stay in the range. But at the end nothing big was happened. Yeah.

[00:31:12.27] - Speaker 3
So yeah, yeah, of course. Totally agree.

[00:31:16.22] - Speaker 2
We staying there and nothing really big happened and why we were speaking about this before. So maybe the move is already priced in. Could be very possible.

[00:31:32.00] - Speaker 3
I mean people are always freaking out about fmc. Right. And they always make the wildest assumptions what can happen over there. And then they tell you oh see to close after FC was 1% lower. It's over in the market and on the next day the move gets fully reversed to the upside and you have a new high. Right. So FC is always low liquidity day. And yeah, low liquidity means broader moves, range, extension and all the stuff.

[00:32:08.14] - Speaker 2
But do you know there was a time I think it's. It's not far away. I think one year, one and a half year there was not so many action on fomc. This was not, not important. Now it becomes important. But I will promise everyone so with. With Donald Trump now as. As president in the future there will be more important what Donald Trump will treat and all the stuff. Definitely, definitely that's what the Fed President is telling us.

[00:32:42.05] - Speaker 3
I can remember the tweets from him. The stock market seems too high. Jones goes down this down the sink like 400 points. Just about that stuff.

[00:32:52.02] - Speaker 1
I mean it was, it was Donald Trump then it was elon Musk during 2021 with the Bitcoin.

[00:32:58.11] - Speaker 3
Yeah.

[00:32:59.05] - Speaker 1
And then it was J Power during the last couple of years basically.

[00:33:03.09] - Speaker 3
Yeah. But it's fading. It's fading away that you can actually trade those FOMC meetings. I had one in the last years since we had higher rates where I made a killing. Must be 12th or 13th of December 22. I guess I was in Bangkok in the hotel lobby and stayed up all the night. And back then you could make assumptions when he say A, B or C then market should be this or that's like 2% on ES.

[00:33:43.05] - Speaker 2
Yeah. For the stock market I would say it's, it's, it's good that Donald Trump is be the president based on the stock market based on the experience what he was having on the first election when he was the president. Everyone you can you can ask any trader. It was the best time when he was president because it was so crazy. He was tweet something. The market boom goes crazy. This. This was like we have every day. Jerome Polish speaking yeah, and that's. This was one of the craziest time in my life at this. I I remember there was something with Iran. If Iran is not. If Iran will only place one bump or against only or kill only one soldier they get a big payback and they will not something like this was happened and holy. The oil price going crazy. Yeah. Yeah. From intraday moves Trump is good but better half squawk on it. Yeah it's, it's. Yeah. Now, now it's really good to have a new squad, an audio squad that you every time be aware of this. Yeah. Yeah. I'm completely sick today. It's really hard every time when you don't see me on camera.

[00:35:34.02] - Speaker 2
Completely sick. Today I was drinking only. Only a little bit cold. This is my first bottle from today. But can you, can you imagine this? So I, I must be really sick.

[00:35:48.07] - Speaker 1
But it's good for you. I guess.

[00:36:02.29] - Speaker 2
So eight Minutes until Paul is speaking.

[00:36:19.18] - Speaker 3
So I actually found a Trade recap from May 29, 2020 Time Stamp German time. But it's right before the close Dow Jones back then we have t wars with China And Trump said no, we won't have the sanctions. And he tweeted that over X. Dow Jones made 400 points in 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8. 40 minutes. So have it have him on notifications on X guys. Yeah, and me of course.

[00:37:10.03] - Speaker 2
Yeah. Is someone tracking how much more follower for followers he get now on on Twitter on X again? Since yesterday. I was not looking into this.

[00:37:24.13] - Speaker 3
What you mean Trump?

[00:37:26.17] - Speaker 2
Yeah.

[00:37:29.11] - Speaker 3
I don't know, man. He has 93 millions.

[00:37:33.14] - Speaker 2
It's crazy.

[00:37:35.02] - Speaker 1
I think he used to have about 50 million. I think it was 56.

[00:37:45.02] - Speaker 2
Amazing. But look at this Fabio. Everything makes sense if we're looking backwards. Yeah. So Elmus was buying Twitter. Now we have Trump back on Twitter. Now we have the old times on trading like what we have on the first election. I don't know, it feels like really crazy.

[00:38:17.05] - Speaker 3
Oh, because someone was mentioned a new squad or life squawk. They're pretty expensive. Drop you guys a link over here. It's from a guy from London that I know and he was a broker back in the times and he has created this free news website. It's sometimes few minutes delayed but not like 20 or 15 minutes delayed. And it's free and you can customize your web feed. I use it pretty frequently. So if you have interest, it's not affiliate or something like that. Don't get me wrong. Just a tip.

[00:39:03.11] - Speaker 2
Yeah. You can also use for free financial juice. So they're saying you should buy this. But the only, the only difference if you buy financial juices, the audio squad is not deleted. 15 seconds. So.

[00:39:20.12] - Speaker 3
But they talk to you the whole day, right?

[00:39:23.23] - Speaker 2
Yeah, yeah. And you have the advertising there. Yeah. So a little bit advertising and 15 seconds delay. But at the end you can use this for free.

[00:39:33.13] - Speaker 3
Also I once tried workspace from lseg. So Blueberg light. And you can also have this quark for your news feed and I accidentally activated that and I had in two seconds like 120 news messages in my ear. Was completely a. Yeah. A little bit too much.

[00:40:23.24] - Speaker 2
Yeah. Financials was a promo. 99 a year. Yeah, Correct.

[00:40:26.28] - Speaker 3
Oh, that's a bargain. That's great. 1990, that's good. Do you guys feel hearing the leaf blower in the background? I guess. Yes. Right?

[00:40:42.18] - Speaker 1
Yeah, a little bit. Not too much.

[00:40:43.29] - Speaker 3
Yeah, I have to mute myself always.

[00:40:52.22] - Speaker 1
And Patrick So obviously the speech is going to be on very soon. When you trade these events what do you normally like look for or kind of like what kind of signals do you want to take?

[00:41:10.17] - Speaker 2
So, so let's stay on the es. But I'm not so familiar with the es. So for me it's really interesting. When we approach now the call resistance or we approach the one day max if we getting some buzzer words near this area. So I, I will see now. Okay, let's push this and then boom before sharply down again where we are now. So let's say from 6004 to 598886. So we're going back. So we're staying in the range but we're going a little bit higher. So we break out of the range. We're touching one day max and then boom, we're falling down again. So but this will be happened. I think it could be really possible that we stay in the range. So and, and the best thing is every time when a reporter can ask questions and someone was, was writing in the comment I had, I. I don't know. Every time when a woman is asking a question the market goes up or down. I don't know. Can you remember that for you there was something.

[00:42:14.05] - Speaker 1
Yeah, maybe.

[00:42:17.00] - Speaker 2
Yeah. I. There. There was some comment when we was on YouTube and I don't know if this is correct or not but the, the password. So I was for me labor market inflation. Every time when we heard something like this, boom. Lab getting reaction. And when we then approaching some, some. Some gamma levels like call Resistance 1 MX perfect. And then we see maybe the down move will be breaking truth. This. Okay then it's valid. And this is something where I'm looking for. As I said I'm a Skyper. Quick in, quick out. If I be wrong, I'll be wrong fast. If I be right, boom. Take it. If you be good in profit, save the profit. If the. If. If it goes much higher. Higher. Okay, that failed. Yeah.

[00:43:06.08] - Speaker 1
Makes sense.

[00:43:13.14] - Speaker 2
But I, I think the people won't be more expected if there's now an a change in the policy with the new president. Maybe they will ask some questions like this. I don't know if I remember there was an FOMC maybe Chester, you can also remember when we have the original bank crisis a little bit where someone goes bankrupt.

[00:43:39.16] - Speaker 3
May 23rd.

[00:43:41.04] - Speaker 2
Yeah, yeah. And I was asking the FOMC was the first 30 minutes or the last 30 minutes about the regular banks and this was crazy. Then we're getting the moves and I think Maybe the reporter will asking him about Donald Trump, what he expected or something like this. If the police he will change with the new president or. I don't know.

[00:44:00.27] - Speaker 3
Yeah, I think so. Yeah, that's, that's right. That will definitely be a question and.

[00:44:05.14] - Speaker 2
I think, I think that will be the buzzers today when he get questions about Donald Trump or the new president.

[00:44:13.02] - Speaker 3
But I think JP is in the seat until 26. If I'm not misleading he gets reelected or he's on the stage now.

[00:44:22.25] - Speaker 2
Yeah. But don't forget Donald Trump have now the House.

[00:44:26.29] - Speaker 3
Yeah, yeah, I know, I know he.

[00:44:28.15] - Speaker 2
He can if you want, he can change. That's crazy. Yeah. Crazy time on your side in America.

[00:44:42.13] - Speaker 1
And also think about that the Fed did not make any big decision before the elections. So like also it's always like this when you get to the election. You don't really make the big decision before because you don't want to affect the political environment. I think today is going to be very interesting.

[00:45:01.05] - Speaker 3
Yeah, yeah, but I leave it like that. Here's. Yeah, like we say in Germany with the back to the wall. I think it's the same in English.

[00:45:22.13] - Speaker 2
Yeah, but let's see what he's talking about. So it could be really interesting. For me the really interesting part is if something has changed. And also I think Tim, it's really interesting what he will, he will say about the inflation because we have now the FOMC and no inflation data. So the CPI will came after the FOMC this time. So for me it's really interesting to, to. To get an idea of what you want to expect or what what you would see now and then remember the words, what he's saying and when the CPI comes out, remember what Paul was saying.

[00:46:10.15] - Speaker 3
Yeah, but you had a pretty inflationary regime back in the days and now inflation takes out. Inflation swaps one year are already up around 2.5%. So that's because the markets they are running all the models right. They are even looking at silo at housing prices and make assumptions about that. So that's really nothing new. But for next year it's also up to the point how many cuts we may be seeing. But I say he will always say the same and he always will likely do it today. Data dependence, blah blah blah, labor market is strong. And as long as this stuff is in place, I say inflation isn't a really big problem. I mean we had around 5% and stock markets are way, way higher with 2.4, 2.3% right now. So yeah, so 6000 Russell is pumping DAO of the day. NASDAQ new all time high.

[00:47:45.27] - Speaker 2
Move much closer to 2%. So let's see what we get. Yeah so we approaching now the core resistance. Okay Shams, let us make a poll. Will we close above 6000 points today on the on the ES or not? Yes or not? Closing above yes or not.

[00:48:35.28] - Speaker 3
I say no because I said yesterday or two days ago we will have 6,000 on Friday.

[00:48:43.20] - Speaker 2
Okay, makes sense.

[00:48:50.17] - Speaker 1
Chaos says no. No. Okay, interesting. Sherry says no.

[00:48:58.21] - Speaker 2
I would say yes. I will against always the retail traders. Let's say yes. Someone have to be the Grinch.

[00:49:17.29] - Speaker 3
Again. The others have to take up as well. I mean NQ is so strong and usually yes catches up later but it needs to help from the broader market.

[00:49:31.00] - Speaker 2
As again, 2012.

[00:49:37.03] - Speaker 3
And here is just ripping with basically no one really in.

[00:49:40.29] - Speaker 2
The market is absolutely not in corn today with the other ones. This is why I was a little bit scared today. Move above but no close. You know.

[00:50:32.07] - Speaker 3
So he's done with remarks now and now I have all the questions.

[00:50:37.23] - Speaker 2
Now the funny part is going on.

[00:50:41.08] - Speaker 1
Yeah, keep us posted what the questions.

[00:50:44.28] - Speaker 3
Are and may I always have to switch to mute and unmute me because I have it on my tablet acting. Yeah. First question was about what will change under Donald Trump election and the election will have no effect of course.

[00:51:08.06] - Speaker 2
Yeah, yeah of course.

[00:51:09.23] - Speaker 1
Look at the move. Yeah, yeah, let's see.

[00:51:19.21] - Speaker 2
Have no effect.

[00:51:22.27] - Speaker 3
He also said the economy is very very hard to forecast but they have like 1500 analysts at the Fred trying to do this all the.

[00:52:00.17] - Speaker 2
And also something what I I'm observing.

[00:52:04.05] - Speaker 3
Very often is oh it's getting serious now. Nick Timinaros from the Wall Street Journal.

[00:52:10.23] - Speaker 1
Oh treasury was flirting with 5%.

[00:52:14.18] - Speaker 3
Oh he's going to the bonds market. We'll question over the yields I guess.

[00:52:25.19] - Speaker 2
So what I was noticed very often is when we have the big difference between NQ and ES like 0.67 and 1.52 the next day the ES will outperform the Nestec. So this is something what you can be most of the time seeing or the NQ will be really hard set off one of maybe but but there will be the rebalance so the they will be balanced. So it will become on the same level again but this will be not happening. Maybe the SP the ES will rebalance to the upside and NQ will not moving or NQ will harshly came down and the years will be in the range.

[00:53:32.22] - Speaker 1
All right, let's see.

[00:53:36.22] - Speaker 2
Yeah Fabio, but you was Asking me so we we're getting the the price action on the ES on the call resistance. Yeah we was falling down so waiting until we get there wait, wait for comments and boom. If you see we're getting down there you will get the move like this.

[00:53:56.29] - Speaker 1
Wow, look at the move. Nice.

[00:54:11.18] - Speaker 3
It's very tricky because he has to answer the question now about financial conditions and I think I posted yesterday or yesterday they are pretty low but if you guys are familiar with bond yields or seeing charts from them they are pretty high and 102 years yield curve is deepening which is in fact a tightening of monetary conditions but very contrary to this is actually the easing from the Fed cutting rates. Right. Because there's a little bit of uncertainty and he was now asked about mortgage rates how are they? Around 7, I guess. I don't know 6 5? Yeah, I think so and seems like the Algos are using this a little bit to sell a few ticks.

[00:55:11.14] - Speaker 1
So they don't want to get to that 6,000 I guess they're waiting for your Friday prediction hope sort of so.

[00:55:29.05] - Speaker 3
ESV web now I mentioned it earlier but.

[00:55:39.02] - Speaker 2
See.

[00:55:42.24] - Speaker 3
Yeah there's no one there's a pretty big sell on 1990s. That would be way too risky to look at Also Russell new low. Bonds are flipping down as well.

[00:56:17.19] - Speaker 1
Look at this also the color distance on the raster was reflected.

[00:56:31.14] - Speaker 3
So now you have selling with size in the market Right. And the thing is now is it enough that they are chewing up all the buyers from the open today Chevy.

[00:56:45.06] - Speaker 2
I'm not trading I I have a one minute delay on my site at the moment.

[00:56:56.23] - Speaker 3
This would be stupid if I were to Vix 1540. So I can't make the checklist in my head with a higher Russell higher down lower wicks to get along in the ass and even if the technical stuff will align about right now because they bought to the tick from the viva I won't catch it. It's way too risky.

[00:57:44.20] - Speaker 1
And Tim when you trade bonds what which ticker do you use.

[00:57:52.14] - Speaker 3
For today like fomc? Yeah or in general it depends. Really? Really because all the stuff is moving a little bit different I usually like ZBS because they have a big big take value and if we have risk on in the market like we had it during the SVP crisis.

[00:58:18.15] - Speaker 2
I was.

[00:58:19.00] - Speaker 3
So long set B bonds was unbelievable like six or seven contracts that's huge margin for my account but you can make a killing with it. During FOMC I would likely trade set teed two years because the front End is. Yeah, very active and pretty much active when it's about monetary publicity stuff. Right. But if someone want to trade bonds Zn 10 years the belly it's nothing wrong with it.

[00:59:02.13] - Speaker 2
Oh I was, I was trading one time spots. Can you remember? Oh it was so nice. Oh I was shouting the bonds but slowly, slowly, slowly. But we was making money. Yeah, but this was the same like Chester. Can you remember?

[00:59:19.27] - Speaker 3
Pretty interesting in. Sorry. Pretty interesting in ES time weighted rev up is 994-5000 70 limits to sell. That's huge. That's someone that has an interest in the market and if you don't have aggressive buying should go further down. But doing an event like this it's always a little bit tricky because they can easily pull those orders and then it doesn't not make sense.

[01:00:02.10] - Speaker 2
What is, what is with your natural gas traits?

[01:00:06.02] - Speaker 3
Oh the Same happened now at 9900 big iceberg, 1600 of the bid. Natural gas. I don't trade it anymore. It's a completely vegan market.

[01:00:23.01] - Speaker 2
No more wetter data that you have.

[01:00:25.16] - Speaker 3
To do so much stuff and so much research. Okay. Eating up the gentleman on the 994 and a quarter. That's amazing in a thin market like that. So much exposure. Crazy.

[01:01:21.05] - Speaker 2
Oh, did you come back to the 6,000? So the battle is going on my friends.

[01:01:58.08] - Speaker 2
But Fabio, can you explain me something? I'm not, I'm, I'm not an American. Maybe good, maybe bad. But how could this be possible? That the stock market is going like crazy all time highs. But in the, in the election everyone was saying about the bad economic.

[01:02:23.07] - Speaker 1
So I think the problem that I see living in America is that the inflation data that we have is actually not really reflecting the real inflation that you have. And I'll give you an example. The rental prices and the commodities or the energy are not really considered in the CPI data. So even though you see like a lower cpi, the cost for people has actually increased and everything has increased. I mean I was in New York yesterday and minimum tip was 20% where it used to be 18 a year ago. So think about that. That's just on the gratuities. The main, the minimum now is 20 is no longer 18. But if you also look at the cost of food, the cost of rental has increasingly skyrocketed. So in essence the economy is doing pretty well. But the, the real money that actually families are taking home is much lower than four years ago, five years ago. So I think what's missing it was.

[01:03:32.20] - Speaker 2
In New York or In Manhattan.

[01:03:34.23] - Speaker 1
Manhattan, yeah.

[01:03:36.04] - Speaker 2
Okay. How much is at a muffin now? If you go to some.

[01:03:41.19] - Speaker 1
So I'll tell you. I, I got coffee this morning. I got a cappuccino and a small yogurt was $16.

[01:03:50.14] - Speaker 2
$16.

[01:03:54.06] - Speaker 1
So, so, so that, that. So I think the problem is that the people have not realized yet that they are making a lot less money in terms of net savings. And we haven't seen a shock event like the one that we saw in 2007 that is like prohibiting people.

[01:04:17.21] - Speaker 2
From.

[01:04:18.02] - Speaker 1
Like going out and spending and increasing inflation. So I think the problem is that here in America people still go out and spend like even though the cost is much higher than it was two years ago. So that's the problem. That's also what's driving the prices up where economy is doing well, but the cost of living, especially for families, much higher.

[01:04:43.06] - Speaker 2
Yeah.

[01:04:49.06] - Speaker 1
What about in Dubai?

[01:04:56.05] - Speaker 2
It's really depend on where you, where you want to go. If you want look source, then you pay luxus. If you went. If you want small prices like, like workers doing you, you find also cornerstones. So it, it's, it's really depend on, on, on what you're looking for. If you be a tourist, you will, you will pay the tourist price. But you must also remind there are many, many workers in Dubai and, and they have also restaurants and, and, and corners where they can buy really cheap prices.

[01:05:31.29] - Speaker 1
Stuff makes sense.

[01:05:33.23] - Speaker 2
But if you, if you not want to hang around with the workers, there are also places where only big money is in the play. So then you pay like I don't know, for coffee you can pay easy 10, 10 Westerners.

[01:05:49.11] - Speaker 1
Yeah. I mean I'll tell you like, so I live in Miami, right? And when I moved to Miami in 2020, a one bedroom apartment was about between 1500 to 1900 dollars. Now it's probably 28 to 3200 for like the same, the same, the same place. Right. So obviously that's an increase of 50, which is not accounted in the inflation rate. But if you are a single person, if you're a family, that's the majority of your kind of like monthly expense, which is, which is crazy of course. Yeah. Sherry. One month. So one bedroom in, so in New York and New York. And the, the funny thing also is that during 2020, 2021, a lot of people moved from New York to Florida. So at the beginning, during COVID the prices in New York kind of went down because a lot of people were living. But now the price of a one bedroom apartment in New York is actually higher than 2019. So a one bedroom apartment in New York would be between 3, 500 to 4,500. Two bedroom would be around 7,000. In Miami, a two bedroom would be between 4,500 and 5,000 and a one bedroom maybe 800, 3,300.

[01:07:16.20] - Speaker 3
And imagine all the new people that are maybe getting hired because with Trump and the easing for the financial industry deregulations, people are getting more jobs in finance. And if you are starting your career with Goldman Sachs or someone else, you get paid base 120k a year and you can afford those small apartments for 4,000amonth. Right. That's not a big problem for you. So it's get even worse I guess with the time.

[01:07:53.07] - Speaker 1
Yeah, I mean I think to be able to live in Manhattan, I think you need at least a salary of maybe 150 plus. I would say with 120 you would be very struggling. Like you know, you would be of course living but not being able to do, do a lot.

[01:08:12.29] - Speaker 3
Well, I know. I mean I spent a few weeks in Queensland and to get into Manhattan was like 40 minutes. It's completely annoying.

[01:08:27.16] - Speaker 2
Yeah.

[01:08:28.20] - Speaker 3
But compared to this, my apartment in London was pretty cheap.

[01:08:33.18] - Speaker 1
Yes. Yeah. And Shelly, to get to your point. Yeah. Madrid is, is amazing how for being such a big city, the cost compared to the rest of like the, the bigger city. If you go to Milan in Italy or London, Madrid is really like a nice arbitrage. I guess.

[01:09:03.21] - Speaker 2
I was never in Madrid. I have to go to them sometimes.

[01:09:08.03] - Speaker 1
Yeah, it's a really nice city. Really beautiful.

[01:09:10.17] - Speaker 2
Yeah. Do you know I'm highly FC Barcelona. Of course it will be a mess for me to go to.

[01:09:21.22] - Speaker 1
I know.

[01:09:24.01] - Speaker 2
Yeah. Barcelona. I was almost many times in Barcelona, but never. Yeah.

[01:09:36.20] - Speaker 1
So Sherry, how much is a one bedroom in Madrid? Oh wow.

[01:09:58.09] - Speaker 2
500 Westerners.

[01:09:59.29] - Speaker 1
No way. Okay. That's, that's incredible.

[01:10:07.08] - Speaker 2
Oh, Fabio. If you want a, a sheep, a really sheep, a flat. So I, I own something in, in East East Germany. So little towns. So you can have this for 200. 200 Euro. But they are down living so much people. So you can, if you want something really cheap, I can arrange something.

[01:10:34.09] - Speaker 1
Thank you, Scott.

[01:10:35.11] - Speaker 3
And so you want to, you want to get out of the real estate sector as well?

[01:10:41.23] - Speaker 2
No, no. This would be a mess if you're going out. It's. It's the best ever, Chester. It's really bad.

[01:10:49.26] - Speaker 3
I hate it. I own two apartments and I want to get rid of them as soon as possible. The stupid stuff. Really.

[01:10:56.20] - Speaker 2
Oh man, no. Okay. I'm trying not to become political, but think about you. Be an flat owner. You have, I don't know, 50 flats and then the government comes to you and ask for you. If you have flats for refugees and they pay you the best price ever.

[01:11:18.02] - Speaker 3
Well that's a different story.

[01:11:22.19] - Speaker 2
So then you're looking as investors to buy more flats for someone else to. To get the money from the government. And you get a 10 year contract. So no matter if the refuge is going, they pay you 10 years. A highly big price. Yeah, you make really good business with this.

[01:11:44.28] - Speaker 3
So we're actually milking the German government. Right?

[01:11:49.00] - Speaker 2
They was milking me with taxes, so now I'm milking them with friends.

[01:11:52.11] - Speaker 3
Exactly. That's right. Six thousand still.

[01:12:05.29] - Speaker 2
Oh, but Fabio, look at this. So when you, when you, when you're re watching the recording, we were saying, okay, we see some price action on call resistance or one day max and we go down nearly 5,988 and boom. It was exactly this happened. Yeah. Down to 5,998. Boom. This was the short. And now the market.

[01:12:38.14] - Speaker 1
Yeah. Oh, now we're breaking.

[01:12:42.14] - Speaker 2
Can you open the, the watch list from, from the NQ where we are on NQ all.

[01:12:48.11] - Speaker 1
Oh, 222.

[01:12:58.14] - Speaker 3
Yeah. He told us we don't need a weaker labor market to get inflation down to 2%. I bought 6,000 now in ES. Let's see. Keep it tight over here. 605. 50. 6055 model. 6010. That's 10 points. That's enough for me. If we get it.

[01:13:40.00] - Speaker 2
You. What are you hearing from CEOs or other officials around the country?

[01:13:44.19] - Speaker 3
What did you hear today? Attention is building. There is no one on the sell side.

[01:13:53.23] - Speaker 2
Now thinking about the bank crisis. What about the original bank crisis? Was the comment or a question about the original bank crisis?

[01:14:06.12] - Speaker 3
No, he mentioned we don't need a weaker labor market. That inflation has to come down to 2%. And this gave the algorithms a little reason to buy. I guess. I took it 6,000 to 6,006. That's okay. Don't care. Election day was good, so don't overestimate it.

[01:14:44.01] - Speaker 2
Don't get greedy. Question. But other questions. Did they have the questions before?

[01:15:12.09] - Speaker 1
I don't think so. No, not sure.

[01:15:14.21] - Speaker 3
But for, for fomc, the questions are pre reelected from PA stuff. He does not know the questions or. But his staff knows what questionable happens.

[01:15:26.09] - Speaker 2
Okay, okay, okay. Because sometimes I. I'm wondering why there's no reporter asking really tough questions. Why only soft questions Sometimes you have.

[01:15:34.25] - Speaker 3
The stuff from Nikki T. The Wall Street Journal guy and also the lady who spokes after Nick. He's also. She's also pretty tough in her questions sometimes. But if nothing special happens, what should you ask? Right.

[01:15:52.10] - Speaker 1
And also Patrick, going back to when you were commenting on if whenever somebody speaks or man or woman think about that. The. The algos also look for the actual person so they. The transcript will say the name of the person and there is a possibility that they could build model based on the question of a specific person or basically the statement of a specific person.

[01:16:16.24] - Speaker 2
Person.

[01:16:17.15] - Speaker 3
Yeah. Bloomberg has this indicator that you can overlay to every asset you want. Hawkish or dovish stances.

[01:16:26.21] - Speaker 1
Yeah.

[01:16:27.05] - Speaker 3
And what happens then? That's pretty, pretty advanced the whole stuff. It's so competitive the whole game. It's amazing.

[01:16:35.01] - Speaker 1
Yeah, yeah, of course.

[01:16:46.17] - Speaker 3
I think last year there was a investigative journalist or was it a she? I don't know. Yeah, it was a she because.

[01:16:56.07] - Speaker 2
He.

[01:16:57.06] - Speaker 3
He hooked up. She hooked up with a guy that works on the FOMC as some kind of clerk or whatever and she asked him all the questions during. During a Tinder date with was so good. And yeah he told them some little secrets how everything works. Like Powell always gets his remarks prepared one, two or three versions of it. Obviously if they cut rates, if they hike or if they pause and everything is prepared usually. And he always said it's. It's more a show for the public, not actually a big part of politics. Pretty interesting.

[01:17:42.00] - Speaker 2
Yeah. I think the, the biggest, toughest question Jerome Po gets always on the testimony.

[01:17:53.06] - Speaker 3
Yeah, it is. I love the, I love the guy Kennedy, the senator. I don't know for which country he is, but he is amazing. Senator Kennedy is national treasury. So it turns out for es the Viva ID session was pretty okay. 985. It's over 80 ticks to the top of the day. Freaking wicks. That was the problem was not low enough for me.

[01:18:50.03] - Speaker 2
But there's a good chance that we stay above 6,000 at the moment one day max already.

[01:19:05.26] - Speaker 3
Yeah. I think Trump can file him. Yeah, of course.

[01:19:10.06] - Speaker 1
Yeah.

[01:19:14.13] - Speaker 2
I think they don't like each other. Yeah, yeah.

[01:19:18.04] - Speaker 3
That's stuff you heard and people are saying I don't know. I don't know neither of them. So.

[01:19:35.22] - Speaker 2
But I cannot answer the question if Jerome Paul was making a good job or not. So we don't know what is in the background on the fat and with the political stuff when they enclosed room.

[01:19:49.12] - Speaker 3
I don't know what's What's a good job? What's a bad job? Right.

[01:19:54.00] - Speaker 2
Yeah, it's a part of definition. Fabi, what do you think? Good job. Bad job.

[01:19:59.11] - Speaker 1
I think is a tough job.

[01:20:01.16] - Speaker 3
Yeah.

[01:20:02.10] - Speaker 1
It's hard to say if it's good or bad. Think about that. For 20 years almost, we had zero rate, basically. And then suddenly, you know, with COVID I think was very hard to manage that process. So I don't know, it's hard to say if it's good or bad, but it was definitely a very difficult job. And you have to balance the possibility of a recession with the need to increase the rates to lower inflation. So.

[01:20:35.02] - Speaker 2
Yeah. But we can say, what was he protecting the American people for? Damage? What is it? What is your personal feeling?

[01:20:47.16] - Speaker 1
So I think he was trying to manage not to go into a recession, but at the same time trying to lower the inflation. So I think, again, going back to my point, I think the inflation is much higher than what the number shows.

[01:21:04.03] - Speaker 3
Yeah. Because the models that they are running, they are stupid. It's. Sorry to interrupt you, Fabio, but I always say the Fed with monetary policy, they trying to navigate the oil tanker by looking in the back mirror. Right. With all the data. That's. It's very hard.

[01:21:26.08] - Speaker 1
Yeah.

[01:21:33.09] - Speaker 3
Then you had 2020 and 2019 with the massive bond issuance, which causes inflation. Of course, that was more mistake, but that's Janet Yellen's mistake, so let's blame her.

[01:21:47.21] - Speaker 2
Hello, dog. My son won't say hello hello to his audience.

[01:21:55.26] - Speaker 1
Hello. Hi, Lionel.

[01:22:01.12] - Speaker 3
Yo, what's up? Are you green or red today? Hello.

[01:22:12.04] - Speaker 2
Hello.

[01:22:13.14] - Speaker 3
Yo, buddy.

[01:22:15.12] - Speaker 1
Welcome. Welcome to the team.

[01:22:19.00] - Speaker 3
Yeah, you have an official job now in the finance industry.

[01:22:29.08] - Speaker 2
All right, go.

[01:22:37.23] - Speaker 3
So pretty boring. That's sucks a little bit, but yeah.

[01:22:48.20] - Speaker 2
Hey, sean, Nothing really happened. We stay there. Maybe market on close will give us some push.

[01:23:04.13] - Speaker 3
Bonds new daily high.

[01:23:12.20] - Speaker 1
And also team like share any, you know, success that you've had so far. You know, share like what you've done, how you played out. Let us know, like, if you had success during the session today.

[01:23:31.22] - Speaker 3
Or do you mean in general?

[01:23:33.12] - Speaker 1
Since I'm in the. I'm talking more about the audience. If they had any successful execution, successful trades during the. The last hour and a half or so.

[01:23:45.15] - Speaker 3
Ah, so today was. It was pretty.

[01:23:49.03] - Speaker 1
Yeah.

[01:23:49.20] - Speaker 3
Pretty sluggish to trade range small up move. Range small up move. Because what I figured out, my style hasn't changed a little bit with the option levels changed more to the new thingy that I have to wait longer before my trade comes. But then it usually works pretty well because if you are staying to the levels and you do your job and do your research about tends to be a good trade. And that's the thing.

[01:24:28.05] - Speaker 2
Yeah.

[01:24:28.17] - Speaker 3
Don't go long at all. Time high. Stop it.

[01:24:33.02] - Speaker 1
A couple of shorts. Very tough day. Thank you.

[01:24:36.05] - Speaker 3
Sherry and I would never ever short a dial market like this that is creeping up all the time. Never ever. Does not make sense. Because it's creeping up that slowly bits and asks are equal to each other. No one takes a big incentive. Right. And if no one takes a big incentive to short or go long, why should you do this? That's the point.

[01:25:04.15] - Speaker 2
I was 120k down in today. I was shorting the market, man.

[01:25:11.12] - Speaker 3
I tell you, my loss limit is like 3k for a day. Tweb. Yeah, of course. It actually is named t web, isn't it? Wait a minute. Yes. Tweb.

[01:25:41.24] - Speaker 2
What is t web?

[01:25:43.24] - Speaker 3
Time weighted average price.

[01:25:49.27] - Speaker 2
What's the difference between vwap and t web?

[01:25:54.28] - Speaker 3
Vvip is calculated by volume and tv is calculated by time. I mean that's standard stuff. That's how machines are working a little bit like there's not a big edge in it. Don't get me wrong.

[01:26:20.07] - Speaker 2
Wait, paulo love it.

[01:26:38.09] - Speaker 3
That's a good question, Michael. I love it. Really. Do you speak? Yeah. Market profile. Yeah, I know sometimes people always say, oh, just trade in the daily or on the one hour price is price. Right. Does not matter if it's in the second chart or in the daily chart. But for the time weighted average you can always look a little bit. If it's glued to the trend in the S like today, that's always a sign that bid and ask are equal over the time like for trend. And it's not likely that the trend will reverse that quickly.

[01:27:27.10] - Speaker 1
I think for the volume profile, the important part is to understand where new buyers or sellers could come in.

[01:27:34.20] - Speaker 3
Yeah.

[01:27:35.03] - Speaker 1
So a lot of volume at. Let's say at this level, 5,987 and suddenly the price dropped. Maybe like more funds, more people would be interested on getting back in as a buyer. That's when you see the reaction. So it's really similar the approach taken with the options data. Right. So you want to understand where new buyers or new sellers could come in and where the price could potentially reverse. Continue. That's. That's kind of like the point on how you would use that the volume.

[01:28:05.05] - Speaker 3
Exactly. And volume profile is just like it's a normal distribution. Right. And what I always tell the people. Imagine a study about 1 million people and they are all getting a Q test. Right. How smart they are. In the end it will turn out as a normal distribution on the tails or very very small people with an IQ of 120 or even higher and in the middle are the most of the people with 19. And you can easily make a transition to volume profile theory. Don't trade in the middle because that's the dumb way to trade. Right. Don't trade around the poc. It's open, the outcome is open. What happens can over there price is fair and there's no incentive to. Yeah. Buy short it.

[01:28:58.06] - Speaker 1
Yeah. And you can see it here like exactly what you're saying. So you see there's a lot of congestion around this area so there's not really a clear direction where.

[01:29:11.29] - Speaker 3
So Russell up. Where's the scale the hell. So the Russell is up like $8. The Dow makes a new high. Okay. The Vix theory doesn't play that out but maybe the FOMC is. But I think you can see that the whole market in general is also lifting the ES now is catching up with the NASDAQ who spent already much much time today above the one day Max. So inherent strench over there.

[01:30:04.26] - Speaker 1
So did you get your temperance on?

[01:30:06.20] - Speaker 3
Yes, yeah, yeah I'm done. That's okay for the day.

[01:30:11.01] - Speaker 1
Okay.

[01:30:13.17] - Speaker 2
But Michelle, can you give us some feedback how the course timing setup and location was for you? Was this helpful?

[01:30:57.08] - Speaker 1
Yeah. And Max, always when you look at you know, volume profile or volume area think about. You know we talked about Tesla before, right. Tesla is now at almost $300. So let's imagine that the price tomorrow drops to 250 but nothing has changed in terms of fundamental. In terms of sales of the company. Then suddenly you will be more interested because that could be a very cheap price for a company that you want to own anyway. So basically like looking at those areas where there's a lot of buyers and sellers will help you understand where people could come in if the price were to drop to those areas.

[01:31:39.05] - Speaker 3
I actually start writing a primer about volume profiles like one month ago but I forgot it actually and you guys remind me of it right now and I should finish it maybe.

[01:31:52.29] - Speaker 1
Yeah.

[01:31:59.09] - Speaker 3
Yeah. Low volume nodes. Of course I know that's also a thing. 6002 present. Exactly. I mean it's a bit tricky and risky to do this during fomsc. Right. Because it's harder to read the market then. That's the reason I don't took the viva below at 98600 can easily slip through. Let's just run like 10 ticks SL in E.

[01:33:10.27] - Speaker 1
But also like I think Patrick, look at this.

[01:33:13.18] - Speaker 2
Right.

[01:33:14.15] - Speaker 1
Look at this also like a good way of using the levels as a risk management tool. Right. So let's say that you believe the price could go above 6,000. Right. And the price breaks. This could be your stop loss target. Right. So this could be your areas where okay, if you are on a kind of long trade I might risk until the core resistance. And this is kind of like how you could abuse kind of the level here in this case where you know it broke above kind of congestion right here. Your risk could have been about 5 points from 604 to 6,000 and then see if what happens to the price. What do you think about that?

[01:33:54.05] - Speaker 2
Yeah. 100.

[01:33:57.23] - Speaker 3
I don't know if you guys remember we also talked about gold during the election night.

[01:34:02.24] - Speaker 1
Yeah.

[01:34:04.15] - Speaker 3
Do you have a gold shot open with the daily levels?

[01:34:08.17] - Speaker 1
Let me just get them.

[01:34:10.03] - Speaker 3
It's completely insane. One second. Put support was 66500 Low of the day was 655. 656 most alone. 6 ticks reversal from the put support. And that's a pretty, pretty good example of the option levels in futures because futures are trading 23 five days a week and your option levels are yeah. Basically active all the day. Right. It's not like an SPX or QQQ in the ETFs where some market makers don't hatch overnight risk. Some do. But in futures.

[01:35:19.10] - Speaker 1
Wow.

[01:35:19.15] - Speaker 3
It's always, it's always online. And that's the night from the fifth down, down then up. I have to check if the put support was already on Monday or Tuesday down there. 6:50. Then you had this blowout involved volatility for gold and up we go again because it's still a long threat.

[01:35:54.13] - Speaker 1
Yeah. I Even just disput support 0dt here. That was good.

[01:36:01.12] - Speaker 3
Yeah it is.

[01:36:04.23] - Speaker 1
This was last.

[01:36:10.08] - Speaker 3
Miss it one tick over there but that's nothing. It's also good. It's during the cash session it was 240pm put support. I mean you still have to risk during the press conference. What can happen. Right. That's always a little bit of problem. But 214 ticks since now. And the good thing is in Gold 1D Max 703. But HVL and HVLC udge, they are way higher. Right. So for sellers in options there's no big incentive to sell below for 745 because you all know the HVL changes the tone in the G slope. Right. So it's likely to test this level again. 745 for people that can hold overnight. Right. If you're just day trading, it will never do $30 in half an hour.

[01:37:39.02] - Speaker 1
So I think we. We do the last seven minutes, guys. So if you have any more questions, comment, feedback, please share them with us. I hope this was helpful. Unfortunately, we were not able to trade. But we really definitely gave you a good coverage of the event. And let's see what happens for tomorrow. For. For Friday. We're gonna have some really interesting back testing tomorrow of the swing models. So stay tuned. We're gonna publish the event later today and yeah, very exc.

[01:38:34.04] - Speaker 2
Tesla is going now to US$300. It's amazing. 300 points for Tesla. All the.

[01:38:46.02] - Speaker 3
But it was pretty short. Just an hour of Jerome, then he left the stage. But as I said, there's nothing really big new.

[01:39:18.07] - Speaker 2
Oh, fabio. Swe. It's freezing. To mute there.

[01:39:26.05] - Speaker 3
Yeah, sure.

[01:39:26.29] - Speaker 2
Are we alone?

[01:39:29.18] - Speaker 3
Yeah. Last five minutes. Trade tomorrow.

[01:39:40.05] - Speaker 2
I will not trade tomorrow, obviously. And this week was intensive.

[01:39:45.21] - Speaker 3
Yeah, it was.

[01:39:48.20] - Speaker 2
Intensive. Sick. It's. It's moved. Can move together. I'm so happy. If it's now Friday, it's like crazy.

[01:39:56.24] - Speaker 3
I had so less sleep this week. Hey guys, thanks for attending and all your questions. Always welcome. So don't hesitate.

[01:40:19.26] - Speaker 1
Sorry guys, I got disconnected.

[01:40:23.23] - Speaker 2
No worries. The election day I had no sleep because results came in at 4am by local time. Yeah, yeah.

[01:40:53.03] - Speaker 3
But if. If you see it like that, right. Waiting up 4am to potentially have a trade and then you have a movement like this. I mean it's always worth.

[01:41:04.25] - Speaker 1
Yeah.

[01:41:05.05] - Speaker 2
If it.

[01:41:05.16] - Speaker 3
If it turns out like this. Okay.

[01:41:07.28] - Speaker 1
Yeah, sure.

[01:41:17.11] - Speaker 3
Yeah. Great. Great opportunities.

[01:41:22.11] - Speaker 1
Thank you, max. Thank you, Michael. Thank you so much, guys. And yeah. And thank you guys for also taking all this time to stay with us. You know, I know obviously everybody has a busy schedule, but. Yeah. Thank you guys for joining for all these live events. Thank you, Barlow. Thank you.

[01:41:50.25] - Speaker 3
Especially for the EU guys. Right? It's.

[01:41:53.29] - Speaker 1
Yeah.

[01:41:54.18] - Speaker 3
9:30 already.

[01:41:56.15] - Speaker 1
That's right. Yeah.

[01:41:57.15] - Speaker 3
On the first day.

[01:42:04.03] - Speaker 1
All right. I think. Yeah. Patrick will let you get better.

[01:42:09.19] - Speaker 2
Thank you.

[01:42:10.20] - Speaker 1
And just team, thank you so much for your last minute turnaround and really great coverage as always.

[01:42:18.09] - Speaker 3
Yeah, of course.

[01:42:19.25] - Speaker 1
It's a pleasure and thank you guys. Have a great day and see you again in Discord and see you tomorrow and have a great evening.

[01:42:29.23] - Speaker 3
Yeah. Bye. Bye. See you all.

[01:42:31.29] - Speaker 2
Bye, everyone.