How to Leverage Data to Trade Forex

[00:00:04.14] - Speaker 1
Hi everyone. Welcome back again. Today we're going to talk about Forex and we have a really special guest. We are here with Kieran Duff from Elysium Capital and we're going to talk about Forex. So welcome Kieran and welcome Patrick. Before I let you introduce yourself, Kieran, let me just run our disclaimer for a few seconds and then we start.

[00:00:42.02] - Speaker 2
All right.

[00:00:42.11] - Speaker 1
Awesome.

[00:00:44.26] - Speaker 2
Yeah. So welcome Kyrian. Welcome to my world. Welcome to Mentor Q. So now we're on the other side. Normally we meet us on the Avinex community and also on other communities. So I'm really happy that you'll be here. So I think it's one of the first time that we have an interview together but we know each other on different ways. So for this reason, yeah, introduce yourself where you're coming from, what's your background and I'm more than happy that you'll be here and thank you brother that you're doing this for us.

[00:01:27.28] - Speaker 3
I appreciate that dude, you know, it's a pleasure to be here. So yeah, as you mentioned, you know, it's usually me stood talking to the camera on my own on a, on one of the Sessions at Darwin x0. I tend to not have people to talk to so I just ramble and ramble for ages. But yeah, as you, as you said, my name is Kieran, I'm a FX trader primarily. I am now stepping into the futures market as well. The way I trade is very, I want to say transferable which will, I'm sure, I'm sure we'll get onto and discuss in, in much more detail. But from kind of my background I was a data analyst, you know, five, six years ago and that helped me transition to become a trader because I was always looking for patterns in certain things. Whether it's, you know, patterns in a data set I might have or patterns in what I do that helps me excel and kind of looking at a self growth from a perception of okay, this is a data set in itself, really helped me kind of take trading or the bull by both horns when looking at trading over the years, you know, as everybody does, I've had many ups and downs.

[00:02:38.09] - Speaker 3
I haven't really had a bad enough patch where I've blown accounts and kind of wanted to throw the, throw the towel in as they say. But I've definitely had my low points. I then went into professional asset management about a year and a half ago and that's where I had my hardest time probably because we had a lot of, and, and this was as you mentioned Elysium Capital. That was actually an old firm that I ran along with one of, one of my friends. It doesn't exist anymore. But we had a lot of, we made a lot of mistakes in that time because we didn't believe in ourselves enough. And so we took the lessons from that. You know we, we made sure all of our clients were kind of happy. It was less of a performance based issue, it was more of a how we ran things and the lack of control we had over certain elements of the business. So like I say we took, we took all of the knowledge that we got there and I kind of took a period away. I stepped back from social media completely and I said I'm going to learn to do this myself with full control whether it's working for other funds, building out my own again.

[00:03:46.25] - Speaker 3
And that was just over a year ago I believe. And since then I now manage investor capital on the side. I do it through an FCA regulated company so obviously I'm not licensed to hold funds on behalf of investors anyway. I work for Darwin x and Darwin x0. They're a great set of guys over there doing revolutionary things for retail traders. And I'm also a full time trader myself so I still trade every day. I still do the same thing today that I did three years ago when I was learning. I still do all my analysis, all my journaling and it's got me to a point where I feel comfortable managing capital on behalf of investors. I'm currently on SIM for a hedge fund but this is why I'm transferring over to Futures because that company only trade futures so the opportunity was too good to pass up so I just said look I'll take everything that I have and I'll try and transition to a new asset class. I'll take on new assets, I'll drop other assets and that kind of leaves leads me to present day.

[00:04:46.23] - Speaker 2
Yeah, that's amazing. And what was your first feeling if you was making the steps to the futures world so. Because I think that's a completely new business. Yes. When we're speaking about margin, when we're speaking about how everything is going we have no more the lots mini lots we have now complete different assess here. So how is the transaction for you? How is the, the things going on your end. Giving you there.

[00:05:29.19] - Speaker 1
Maybe maybe last connection. Let's see.

[00:05:41.12] - Speaker 2
You will come back very soon.

[00:05:43.10] - Speaker 1
Yeah.

[00:05:48.25] - Speaker 2
Yeah so no worries.

[00:05:50.18] - Speaker 3
So my question turn my VPN off so it shouldn't happen again. I apologize.

[00:05:55.19] - Speaker 2
Okay, perfect. So my question was so now you're making the transaction. This is really cool and this is really powerful. Now we have normally a foreign speech, but you're making the transaction basically from CFD Forex now to Futures. So yeah, what was the look and feel the first time if you, if you was making the transition now to the futures world, what, what do you, on your approach?

[00:06:23.17] - Speaker 3
So from, from kind of a technical perspective or an actual execution perspective, there's not too much that's different. I still do the same things that I do when I'm trading CFDs. I would just say the MA. The main thing for me that's been the biggest thing to, to kind of take on a process is just literally the changing platforms. So, you know, you can open a broker account for a CFD broker and be trading on metatrader within 10 minutes, you know, whereas Futures doesn't quite work like that. There's so many different platforms you've got to set up. And I mean, I've got to give credit to the guys who've onboarded me at the fund, at least for the assessment level because they did all the setup with me. So I, I literally learned how to execute a trade. All I said was I use limit orders. So if you can show me how to, you know, put a limit order with a stop and a target, I'm good. I literally take on average two and a half trades a week. I know it's funny because it's not a full round number, but if you average all my trades out of an extended period of time, it's like two and a half.

[00:07:28.07] - Speaker 3
So there's no worry of, you know, how do I get into the market now? I need to know how to act fast. I set my orders at the beginning of the day and I run them till the end. So for me it was just crucial that I know how to set a limit and a stop. And, and once I've done that, it was so easy. So I actually don't think there was too much and at least I've tried to play down to myself as well because again, trading CFDs is so simple. You get Metatrader or, you know, one of the other many platforms that there are. You get a broker account with a bit of money in it and you can trade. So I've been trying to keep it cool and just be like, well, you're doing the same thing. You don't over trade anyway. You don't use up a lot of margin. Like there's no issue that you should come into other than the changing platforms. So that's that, that's the biggest. I know it's probably a bit of a weak answer, but it, and I've also traded futures in the past which does help.

[00:08:19.09] - Speaker 3
So I, I know the. You go from lots to contracts and all and having like mini contracts and all that sort of thing. I already knew all that going into it. So there hasn't been at least yet there hasn't been too much of a, you know, a kick to the groin for me.

[00:08:34.21] - Speaker 2
That's good. And from you, you're coming from, from the data analyst perspective now. Now we come to the biggest point. So how you approach futures trading and do you trading also the Forex futures, so the FX futures. So if you're speaking about 6e6b and, and all other stuff, gold, crude, crude oil and how, how you approach this. So basically if you can only trade two and a half trades per week, correct?

[00:09:06.29] - Speaker 3
Yeah, on average. But that's, that's more from the CFD side of things. So I'm hoping with the, because this is a relatively new transition, I'm hoping that the drop in of you know, for example exotic pairs that you can't just get a futures contract for dropping all of those and replacing them with you know, things like platinum, palladium, all those sorts of precious metals that you don't always get CFD for and kind of just playing around that way. I'm hoping the average stays the same going from, or at least my activity doesn't increase too much or doesn't decrease too much. But obviously I'm not far enough into it yet to give you a concrete answer on that. I'm just hoping it doesn't change my routine too much.

[00:09:46.07] - Speaker 2
Okay. Okay. And how you deal with this so. Because you know, same like me. So we came, I came from the scalpel world, I came from the day trading world. How's your discipline, how's your mindset that you can say to your, to yourself oh man, I'm taking only as average 2 1/2 trades because I don't miss something and, and I'm half my setups what I really like and I execute this and that's it. And also as I know you follow really one simple rule. So you have your stop loss and you have your target and that's it. So you'll be cool with this. So what data do you use and how you approach this with a strong mindset. So for me I would be going crazy if I'm, if I'm, if I have an open position, I'm, I'M I'm lying down in my bed. I would go crazy. I will wake up every hour and, and looking into, into my, into my smartphone and, and see what's going on. But how you can approach this, let us know.

[00:11:00.02] - Speaker 3
I was going to say something else then.

[00:11:03.18] - Speaker 2
No.

[00:11:03.28] - Speaker 3
Okay, so it's a, again, it's a bit of a weird one because just naturally I have an insane amount of patience. I don't, I don't feel, I don't feel a type of way by missing a move. I initially got started in, in finance per se through crypto. So I was seeing moves and my first initial introduction to this industry release, trading and investing. I was watching moves go parabolic on a daily basis back in 2016, 17. So I think that really helped me see moves happen and not feel a type of way about not being in them. I have tried over time to drop time frames, to add more assets, to change systems and to do different things, but ultimately it comes down to performance and I don't perform well that way. Like I say, I have the patience of the saints. So I am happy to sit around on my hands and wait for a setup to come where I know I'm on the right side of the market. And even if I get stuck out, I was on the right side of the market from a probabilities perspective. So what I mean by that is if I have a bias that's backed by data and I can say there's a 72% chance of this happening, for example, and it doesn't happen, I can still say I was on the right side, you know, even though you took the loss, I did the right thing because you know, seven times out of ten that should happen, which also helps you take the take any losses because you go, well, there's still only a 7, 70% chance.

[00:12:31.15] - Speaker 3
There's still three out of 10 times that you're going to be wrong. So I find a lot of logic in data and in numbers as opposed to just building a discretionary system or a mechanical system and, and kind of enforcing that on the market, which I did for years and years. Right. I didn't always trade with a data backed edge per se, but these days I have, I eliminate all of my bias and all of my directional cues from a discretionary perspective. I let, and when I say data, I hate saying I let data tell me, but I look at my data matrix that I build, I understand the probabilities of certain things happening based on what's happened over the past 24 hours and it is black or white. It's not like it's not a discretionary metric. It might be, for example, if the previous day's high has been broken, then what's the percentage chance of a follow through? It's black and white, it's bullish or bearish. It's not, oh, this could have happened then, this could have happened. It's one or the other. And I combine loads of different data points together which gives me a solid perspective of you should be in this market.

[00:13:34.22] - Speaker 3
Now it's about getting in there, which is my biggest issue as a trader. I can spot five to 10 good opportunities every single day and I might still only get into two per week. Right. My biggest issue is getting into the market because again, things are either bullish or bearish from the way I determine a bias. But, but if it's bullish, but the price action looks awful and I can't see somewhere to get into the market, I'm happy to go. Look, I know there's a good solid, you know, there might even be an 80 chance of the market going up today based on what I track. But there's no way for me to get in. So I'm happy to sit back. I'll let the move play. If it plays, no hard feelings, not bothered. If it doesn't play out again, no high feelings, I'll just take it off my watch list. So that's really how I approach things. I don't, I actually find it solves any psychological issue I've ever had as a trader. Having that data there and being able to sit on my hands and wait for those opportunities. You know, for example, I still trade the, the way I trade now, I've traded for many years.

[00:14:37.20] - Speaker 3
Kind of a discretionary approach to basic support and resistance levels. They're just now backed by data. But before, if I'd have taken a stop, for example, I might sit there and go, well, why did you take the stop? And I had to try and find the reason or logic behind it. We always say as traders, it's all about probabilities, you're never going to win them all. But you're always left wondering, should I have done something differently? Was there something I missed? Did I miss out this on a higher. Whereas now I look at it and I go, well, there was a 30% chance you were going to be wrong anyway, so it was just part of the game. So it actually helps me from that perspective. But yeah, it's been. The best thing that happened to me is incorporating data into my approach that's amazing.

[00:15:21.16] - Speaker 2
So basically data gives you the confidence to trust your setup. Correct. And this is exactly what we're also doing here on mentor queue. So we are basically providing data from you. Correct. So yeah, let's switch. I know, I know what tool you're speaking about here and 100 if you're speaking about the percentage and all this stuff. But we have also something and I think as a swing trader or especially as a position trader for five day swing trading models, we have also the chance so we can, we can say and in percentage how successful this is and in how many days this will be play out. Maybe Fabio, you can, you can share this really quick with us. The five day swing trading model, if you prepare for this.

[00:16:15.01] - Speaker 1
Yeah, absolutely. And Kieran, that's awesome to hear your background and your perspective because I, I come from a similar background. I worked in data mostly selling data to large organizations. And obviously I've seen this the, the change in the market from going from traditional information to more alternative and big data. So obviously data is very important. It's the best commodity we have. So that's why we created mentor queues. So just to give you a very short background, we, we look at options data and the reason why we do that is because there's a lot of information that are hidden in option markets that can actually help traders dictate the direction of the market. So we provide gamma levels on futures. So we do forex, we do gold, we do commodities and we also provide our string levels on stocks and ETFs. So if you are looking at, if you're looking at futures, we also have the ETF that can give you an idea where the price could go. So for example, if you look at gold, we can provide you our string models on, for example GLD that you can then apply to your gold.

[00:17:31.03] - Speaker 1
Kind of like setup or crude oil or indices and so on. So what the string model does is basically giving you like a volatility band over five days on where the price should be above or below. And it also gives you kind of like a backtesting tool. So it also shows you over the past 35 days how many times did the price stay above the lower band and how many price did it stay below the risk trigger. So you can see here how also kind of like the accuracy of the level across time and you can always go, go back in time as well.

[00:18:13.20] - Speaker 2
And I think Kevin, this is really important because at the end so highly believe everyone needs an playbook rules based on data so that you can copy this anytime so that you can see. Okay. I know this is often success rate from X percent and if my market condition shows up like this. So I can play this because it's back tested, it's based on data. The same what you're doing, correct, Achille?

[00:18:44.23] - Speaker 3
Yeah, I think a lot of people have a misconception of data and how to use it though I, I do think you have to, you have to at least have some knowledge. Again, it all to me all goes back to spotting patterns and understanding patterns from a data perspective because you could give somebody, you know, 100%, let's say expectancy of, you know, a scenario playing out and they still might not be able to make money with it because they don't look at the surrounding variables that go into that.

[00:19:20.18] - Speaker 2
Right.

[00:19:21.00] - Speaker 3
And it really does take some practice and deep diving like your data should in my opinion, determine your targets and your stops in terms of, okay, from what I track and what I look at, the market has X probability of ending up here on the, on the end of the day and it has X probability of avoiding this area. That's half the battle. Right. You know, for example, if I'm looking to long, gold, long crude, long Euro, dollar, whatever it may be, I want to be able to back up my long with a percentage chance of it closing higher and a percentage, a good percentage chance that it doesn't close lower. So I can say confidently aligning with my discretionary edge where I trade levels. Okay. I'm actually on the bright side of the market because there's a 60, 70, 80% chance it doesn't move past where my stops placed and there's a 60, 70, 80 chance that it moves towards my target. At least you might not get a full one R, you might get not get a 2R but at least you're getting these moves correct.

[00:20:19.08] - Speaker 2
Right.

[00:20:19.24] - Speaker 3
And the way you execute, you can change it day by day. Like it doesn't, it doesn't matter. Your system is malleable. You might trade levels, you might realize levels, you don't enjoy trading levels. So you change to trading EMA crossovers. But it all goes back to what your data is telling you to do. And if your data doesn't provide you with an edge, then you don't trade. That's how I see things anyway.

[00:20:42.07] - Speaker 2
Yeah. Then we came to the one day min and the one day max. So basically what we give also people is Fabio. Maybe you can explain this a little bit more in detail. So what is the one name Ming. And what is the one name Max because it comes closer to what you say to the percentage. How's the percentage that we are closing today on the high or that we're closing on the low and based on options data we can do the same. So at the end some other one is using data based on market and other one is using data based on options market. And I think the power on each other is if we can combine this together because then we're getting a full market overview. If you're looking only to the market slowly I'm highly believe this is a really good data but you're missing an important cake or cake. And it's the same like if you're looking only to options data then you're missing also a really important cake. And I think Fabio, maybe we can connect the dots together with the one day min and the one day maximum.

[00:21:58.15] - Speaker 1
Yeah, absolutely. Let me share. So basically what we do we look at option data and we created a model that can look at forward looking volatility and estimate the levels for the day. So estimate where the price should stay within the range for the day. And I think the back testing result shows about an 85% probability that the price would close above the one the minimum or below the one the max. So basically what we do is then we use these ranges to kind of like look at where the asset can go. And for example we do that also on the future side. And obviously overnight there was a very strong break of the volatility because we saw a very strong move. But then our option data was able to tell us basically there was a good level, a good floor at this area where the price could potentially bounce. And then we are now just above that level right there.

[00:23:01.22] - Speaker 2
And this is exactly what I mean Kyrian. So I know, I know exactly what, what provider do you speak about? But I think about we can now connect each together. I'm using this also like same with what you're using and it gives me a little bit more edge if I'm adding something to this. Not only looking slowly to the data but I think the approach what we both have as professionals. So I'm using also investor capital as you know. But we looking highly to data. We make no decision without data. And you were saying something what I really like is that not everyone can handle data. You can make it as simple as possible for the people but they cannot use it. Did you can say something to the people how they can easily bring this and make this useful for them. Or maybe if this is hard because it's individual. But what are the most mistakes? What the people doing based on your view if, say if it came to data. So if they have providers who gives them really good data, but how they can use this as simple as possible for his edge, I tell them always, hey, look, look into your trading journal.

[00:24:27.06] - Speaker 2
So we came to the point as journal, you need a journal. Without a journal, I don't know, you have no edge in my point of view. But we have the discussion many times together with other people around us and then you can say, okay, so if you have a really good setup based on your journal where you have the highest success rate and this brings you the biggest profits, then you can use this. And then let's look into the data, what the data speaks and how we can improve the strategy if we adding data. Like how you would be explaining this to the people as, as a professional, also how you would be explained this and also what mistakes you should not do.

[00:25:18.25] - Speaker 3
Okay, so I think there's two parts or two parts to my answer of that. The first one is it's actually incredibly tough. Like I say, you can give somebody any statistic and they still won't be able to find an edge from it. And this is the problem with certain data providers is you don't. It's, it's like information that you could go out and find yourself. It's not necessarily going to give you an edge. For example, I, from the provider I use, I extrapolate all of that data and I built my own data matrix that gives me certain probabilities based on combined probabilities. So I, I track five. Maybe I've, I've added a couple of more data points in. I just haven't added them actually into my matrix yet. But if I'm tracking seven data points, that's seven different confluences or things that you're trying to track. So what I did was I built my own software and I'm currently building it out again like a V2 version which is proprietary. Right. So it's kind of only I have access to it. Reason being it's my edge. So I don't, I don't want other people because I'm managing investor capital with it.

[00:26:25.10] - Speaker 3
I don't want other people to have it. And this is where it gets a little bit tricky because I know how to do this sort of thing because of my experience in a job working with, you know, large amounts of data sets and trying to find patterns. But basically what I do is I aggregate everything together which spits out, you know, A combined score or probability, and I justify whether the trade is worth taking. Now, that's extremely difficult to do at the level I do it at, because it's not just looking at a, you know, percentage chance of something happening and trading it. I've spent hours and hours and hours building something that basically does all that for me in terms of saying you should be long, you should be short, you should be sat on the sidelines. But also I've done hours of testing, trying to work things in together, you know, working backwards as well as forwards. Because one of the mistakes a lot of people make is that they try and their execution model becomes the thing that they work around. Now, I, I disagree with that approach. I think your execution should be the thing that's most malleable.

[00:27:30.12] - Speaker 3
I think it should be the least important thing in your system. I think the execution is literally how you decide whether to press, buy or sell. But what a lot of traders do. And I think it's the rise of trading gurus and people on YouTube saying you only need to do this every day for 30 minutes and then you'll be profitable. And people take that as gospel. So let's say they learn something from YouTube, they go and implement that, and then that becomes the holy grail and they change things outside of it. But that's just a model to execute. I think that should be the very last thing. You should have a robust system that doesn't change. Okay, I'm looking for this to happen and not that to happen. How you execute just becomes part of the process. But like I say, you have to work backwards from that. Whereas most people work forwards. They get their execution queue and then they go, now where can I implement this? Which is kind of like you're a dog chasing your tail. You need to look at what's most likely to happen on that day and then look at how do you execute on that.

[00:28:29.04] - Speaker 3
Because you're doing it the wrong. In my opinion, you're doing it the wrong way. Now, the second part to that question, which was more about the journaling side of things, is I completely agree. If you don't have a journal, you. You're never going to improve. Like I. I'll say it till I'm blue in my face. I speak to countless amounts of traders who not once looked at their journal. And it's frustrating for me, especially because I do a lot of this for, for Dominic 0 traders. So I'll analyze their journal, I'll take a look at all their statistics and their data, and I will Give them feedback. And sometimes I can spend an hour or maybe even more looking at somebody's journal, finding patterns for them and basically doing what I would do for myself for these people and they say I've never looked at that or I've never. And I'm like, why am I doing it for you? If you've never gone and looked at your journal, it's the easiest thing you can use to improve. It will tell you more than any backtext back testing session will. It will tell you more than any data set will because it is 110 data from your decisions.

[00:29:30.01] - Speaker 3
So it tells you how you act and behave as a trader as well as you know whether your edge actually performs. But like I say, I pick out random, really random things. And Patrick, I think you might have been in some of the sessions where I go really granular and I, I, I do pick on people a little bit because if I look at somebody's statistics and it tells me categorically that they hemorrhage money on a Monday but, but they're profitable on a Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday. I asked them why are you still trading on a Monday? You know, if you're, if you've been trading for 12 months and you hemorrhage money every single Monday, why do you come in on a Monday and still trade? Do less work for more reward. But you're only going to know that if you're looking at your journal.

[00:30:11.06] - Speaker 2
Yeah. And 100 agree. And I think the trading week is not done on Monday and not on Friday. So for, for me the trading week is done at the end of the week. But at the end what always count for me and for my investors is the end of the month and the end of the quarter. So and then if you have Monday like you say, most of the time it's not a good opportunity for you to go into the market. Then don't take it. So I can speak also really open for me what I was seeing based on my trading journals is for me the bad time is trading the first hour of the US stock market. Yeah. So from, from, from, from, from, from eastern time from 9:30 to 10:30. I make really most of the time losses there and I have to bring the spec. So if, if I would, if I avoid this. So then I never become any more to stay from the market because I have not to work for this anymore. And you were saying something to me and I remember this and I think it's a few weeks before you're saying hey, you know, we as Europeans, we have the great opportunity.

[00:31:31.20] - Speaker 2
We can trade the Asia or we can trade the London session. And we have not to go in the crazy New York session where statistically most of the time you're losing your money. Correct me if I'm wrong, but, but I think he was saying something to this and this was count, count on my side really strong. And I was really going in in my full trading journals last five years. And you write. So most of the time, if I would take out the New York session and only using the New York session, I will be more successful than if I would trade this combined together.

[00:32:11.22] - Speaker 3
I mean, you'd be surprised at how common of a pattern that that is. Again, remember, I'm looking at, you know, hundreds of traders, journals and records every week. I see again, I just spot patterns that, you know, are kind of reoccurring themes, you know, between hundreds of different traders. And one of the, one of the most, the things that stands out to me most and again is one of the most overlooked things because going back to my point where traders work forward instead of backwards is they will ignore the, you know, the. Where do you perform best on your day of the week or your time of day, or which trading session or even which asset you perform best on? And they look at all the things for execution and how, you know, was my entry the best, was my exit the best? All this sort of stuff. And I'm sat here going, you're not at that stage yet. And I mean, I don't know if he was on, I say on pretty much every session now, but I say there's two sides to the fence. Again, this is all my opinion. What I say I believe in, but every other trader doesn't have to believe in it.

[00:33:15.07] - Speaker 3
I'm not saying that, but I think if you have a sub 50% strike rate, I think you sit on the left side of the fence and your only job is to get more winning trades through the door and to stop taking as many losing positions. If you've got a 30 strike rate, you can, mathematically you can still make money. And I never dispute that. I completely agree. But it takes a damn good trader to still make money with a 20 or 30% strike rate. It's not as easy as these trading gurus make out on Instagram or YouTube. But I say your only job is to figure out how to get more winning trades and less losing trades. To do that, we look at where do you operate best? Do you operate best on a Tuesday? Do you operate best during the London session? Do you operate best trading pound yen instead of nasdaq? I hear so many people say, oh, I only trade NASDAQ because I love the volatility. I'll look at their record. They're down on the Nasdaq, but they're up on all the FX pairs. And I said, well, doesn't make sense to keep trading the NQ when you're down on that, but you're up on everything else.

[00:34:16.03] - Speaker 3
But you wouldn't know this because you're not even looking at your own data, right? Whereas the second side of the fence is where you go, okay, my system generates enough winning trade ideas for me to capitalize on and for me to make money. Now we look at the granular details. Where we go, okay, how do we optimize each individual trade at such a granular level to squeeze everything out of that move that we possibly can? This is where you start looking at, you know, your excursions. How far do your winners squeeze you before they turn into winning trades? How far do your winners run for you? Are you leaving profit on the table each time? And really where you kind of optimize your system? But I think you should only ever be doing that when you know categorically you're getting more winners through the door than you are losers. But to go back to your question, I think I remember that session because I say to a lot of people, I'm like, you're one of your only jobs as a trader is to figure out how to do less work and get more reward. And I don't mean less work as in, you know, you can put your feet up for the rest of the day and not do anything, but you can spend that time elsewhere.

[00:35:16.20] - Speaker 3
Less time in the markets, more time working around the markets, I. E. Journaling, back testing, figuring out new alpha, all of these different things. You know, even networking with investors might take time and effort. So if you can strip back your market activity but still make more money, isn't that everybody's dream? You know, profitable assets, Stop trading the sessions that you clearly have less or no edging. And, you know, if it's that bad, you know, stop trading Mondays or Fridays or whenever you underperform. But also which and I will finish in a second, I, I. A real game changer for a lot of traders, in my opinion, would be to implement a barometer of risk. Again, this is quite polarizing because not everybody agrees me, and that's okay. I'm not saying everybody has to, but.

[00:36:04.23] - Speaker 2
I think if you, I agree with you no matter what.

[00:36:09.29] - Speaker 3
I, I think if you have a barometer of risk where you say on certain setups, I'll risk 0.75% or 0.75x of your standard risk, and then you have some setups where you risk 1.25 or 1.25x of your standard risk. It's not too, it's not too different so that you can get caught red handed if you, you know, mess up and take too much risk on a bad position or something. But I think if you are proven to underperform on a Monday in the New York session on pound yen, for example, and you're proven to overperform on a Friday in the Asian session with, you know, I don't know gold well, should you be taking the same risk on both of those trades when one of them has a higher expectancy and a higher risk to reward potential? The answer is no, in my opinion. I always say my opinion because not everybody always agrees me, but I just don't think you should be risking the same. And a lot of people say, well, you know what if that one turns out to be a loser and that one turns out to be a winner? And I just say you're thinking too short term.

[00:37:11.20] - Speaker 3
You're thinking trade by trade. You need to be thinking year by year. In a year's time, if I risk the higher end of my risk barometer on these setups, it's going to pay off long term. And then you're mitigating your downside on the trades that have less expectancy by risking slightly less. And again, it's not too much that you're going to see huge discrepancies in your P and L. But it just really helps you capitalize and put your foot down when the market's hot and when you're hot, and then when you're a little bit cold, are not performing as well or you're not the market's not conducive to what you're doing, you're risking that slight bit less. Again, polarizing, but it's what I think most people should look into.

[00:37:50.06] - Speaker 2
But, but Fabio and Kieran, so now we came to a really important sync and I think, Fabio, this is also something what we are observing. This is the risk and reward. So, but not basically on trading. So it's more like how many time you spend into learning stuff, to learn to understand data, to learn how you can integrate data into your trading system, to understand what the data is telling you to take the time off from trading and backtesting and Go to your journals and prove how you can be improved. So this is a risk and reward. Of course you risk now for maybe few months or one year, some time lifetime. But the reward, Kyuan. So if you're doing the job, if you're going through everything we have the academy, it's for free for everyone. Everyone can, can look into this, how the options data is working. Everyone can looking into how data can help you. How we using data. But crazy enough, Kyrian, not everyone takes. Takes deep dive into this. Is this crazy or not?

[00:39:05.25] - Speaker 3
Well, I think a lot of people don't A, understand the importance of this kind of thing and B, they don't want to accept that it's so important. It's. It's much easier to log on to YouTube and type how to. How to weigh 90 of your trades than it is to sit back and take a look at your journal and actually understand the things that you can do. Because not only does it take less time, you are also shifting the responsibility onto somebody else. So if you start trading a losing system, it's okay. It was just that that idiot over there gave me a bad system. Well, actually, who's the real idiot? When you know you've got data you can use and data you can learn from, but you're still going back to YouTube to learn from some random, you know, who, who's shown zero success or zero profitability in the market. But that's a rant for another day, I think.

[00:39:58.22] - Speaker 2
Yeah, but I think Korean, you, you earned my respect. I think it was one year or one and a half year ago where I was reading something about you and, and maybe if I remember that it wasn't a huge drawdown. I think it was 10 or 15% and it needs a really long time for you to come back. And then you was. Yeah, I remember. I think it was one or one hive and, and, and, and you was making this public and I was thinking like home and this guy is crazy.

[00:40:31.07] - Speaker 3
That's, that's insane because that was.

[00:40:33.26] - Speaker 2
Yeah, this was. Yeah, yeah. And this was the time where I was meeting you, the first, where I get contact with you first. And I was thinking like, holy shit, man. This.

[00:40:45.12] - Speaker 3
Wow, that's a blast from the past. That is. Dude. I know exactly the period that you're talking about and I know exactly the post that you would be talking about because that post kind of blew up. I think it was on Twitter. That post blew up and got a lot of. I actually got a lot of support. I was quite nervous posting it because you don't. You don't really see too many people talking about that, that sort of thing. But to condense the whole story into kind of a short snippet, I was. I had a funded account with FTMO and I held that account for three years, and it was a $300,000 account, and I didn't blow it for over three years. And what happened was it actually, a lot of things in my personal life spilled over into my career and into my trading. So I was heavily involved in crypto and I got burned. I lost an insane amount of money through trusting the wrong person and building a business with them, and they ended up, you know, effectively scamming me for a lot of money that I just made the prior year in trade.

[00:41:51.16] - Speaker 3
It's my breakout year of trading. Crypto basically got all swiped away from me because it got robbed, but anyway, and then right after that, my house got broken into and me and my partner, she was heavily pregnant at the time. The time.

[00:42:05.26] - Speaker 2
It.

[00:42:06.05] - Speaker 3
It was like a huge thing to experience and to take on, on top of losing loads of money knowing you're going to have another baby the following week. And that kind of sent me on a spiral where I was doing the right things. I was showing up every day, I was doing the right things, but I was just underperforming. And it was all in my head. I. I had no. I couldn't tell you now categorically what I was doing wrong, but to me, I just wasn't in the head space to trade. And I carried on trading and trading and trading, and it wasn't a case of I just kept losing and I was down really bad. It wasn't that. It was just that I wasn't progressing. And I came off a really strong year and a really strong period to then go from the very high to the, you know, as low as I've ever been in my life. And then I wrote that post when I'd scaled that account back to break even, and then I got a payout from it. And that payout, to me meant everything. Not even the value of it, but just the fact that I'd worked my way back.

[00:43:06.06] - Speaker 3
And it taken me, I don't know, nine or ten months or something, maybe a year. I can't remember.

[00:43:11.10] - Speaker 2
Yeah, yeah, that's crazy.

[00:43:12.23] - Speaker 3
It's taken me a really long time. And I actually thought to myself after, would it have been easier and would it have been quicker to, you know, throw caution to the wind, sling those accounts, you know, risk everything and either blow it and Start again and, you know, do the phase one and the phase two again of that funded account and try and get that back. Or I could get straight out of Drawdown, because if I'm risking everything, I might only need a few pips or a few points, and then I'm back to break even. But instead of doing that, I went the hard road. But I learned so much on that, on that way or on that path. You know, I learned to be okay in Drawdown. I learned to be okay under pressure to budget. Because if you're not taking a, you know, a payout or if your accounts aren't growing, how are you going to survive me so much in, in that period of time that I was kind of like, I need to share this with people. I need other people to know it's okay. And the amount of messages I had, the amount of people commenting and resharing it and saying, oh, my God, somebody said it.

[00:44:16.08] - Speaker 3
I've been through the same. Why isn't this normalized? And I was just like, I thought it was just me. You know, I thought it was just me, but there's so many people who'd experienced the same and. But I'm honest about everything. I'll. I'll always, you know, hold my hand up when I'm going through good periods, bad periods. It makes no difference to me.

[00:44:37.07] - Speaker 2
But Keen do you know, so without all this stuff and, and I'm, I'm 100 sure in our audience, we have many people who are going through tough times, times in trading. Think about today. Today, maybe you was the unlucky one and buying Nvidia with, I don't know, 200 shares. And now you, you down, I don't know, 12%. Boom. And now you're feeling like, holy, what's going on? But no matter what. So every trader goes through hard times. But the question is, do you take the easy step and say, okay, you know, I'm, I'm. I deposit this again. Or, or no, I work for the losses. So no matter what. But at the end, you. You was also having all the data where you can work with. So without going through the hard times, you will not having the data. And also you, you have not the idea how you can use all the data so as we have on from Mentor queue so our gamma levels. So you, you wouldn't, don't know. And, and how you can respect all the data. Because without this experience and without this data, I'm sure you will not be on the stage where you are now.

[00:45:52.14] - Speaker 2
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think everyone needs this to go through pain.

[00:46:01.27] - Speaker 3
Have to be, it doesn't have to be so extreme in terms of like what's painful to me might be different to what's painful to you. And that's okay. You don't have to go through exactly what I went through. And a 10 month, 12 month drawdown, it could be a two month drawdown for you to realize that that's not what you want to be experiencing for the rest of your career. So you need to work to a point where that you're mitigating the, the downside and you're mitigating the, the probability of that happening. Right. And it's kind of like I, I worked harder in those 10 months to get out of drawdown than I ever have in my life. I was doing 15, 16 hour days, you know, again, I had a baby on the way. I had a little girl as well. But it was a case of I've got to find a way to be successful, you know, for them.

[00:46:55.08] - Speaker 2
But now you are pro dead. Yeah. So by the way, so congratulations, my friend. Thank you.

[00:47:00.28] - Speaker 3
I mean they're little terrors now, but it's, yeah, it's been nice to see them, it's been nice to see them grow up because I, I trade from, from home. I did have a, a trading floor with one of my friends for a period of time, but we ended up giving it back because I was spending too much time at home with the children and so we gave that up. But it was great to have an office and to experience that as well in kind of a, an environment where everybody is in, you're in front of each other. You know, we had a telly with Bloomberg on and we'd share our ideas on the tv. That was a fantastic period of time. But again, all of that kind of got overshadowed when things went sour, you know, and I lost money in crypto and then obviously the things in personal life that kind of got overshadowed, but that was a great period of my, my career and that's where I really, I realized what's possible. So even though, even though I've probably made more money since that period of time, you kind of go, aha, you can do this.

[00:47:55.08] - Speaker 3
You know, it's not always going to be sunshine and rainbows, but you will be able to do this as a career moving forward or even, not even, not even just as a career, but you know, as a, I don't want to say hobby because I think if you treat it like a hobby it's going to pay you like a hobby and generally hobbies cost you. They don't pay you but you can do it alongside a job or you can work in the industry or you can go and get a job at a hedge fund or an investment bank. You know so but you have to believe that it's actually possible first and luckily I do now you know so.

[00:48:28.03] - Speaker 2
And should I say something? I was, I was also homeless three months, I was living three months in the car any money without anything. So the only thing what I was doing is believing in myself. I was battling with, with all my profits what I get from the investors and all the stuff to on a different way. If I, I'm a complete different trader. If I'm trading my private account or if I'm trading for investors, investors I'm 100 discipline, focus on my own account, do whatever I want. If I be in a shopping mall waiting for my wife, I place my trades. I don't want weight boom. Maybe I can cover the cost for my wife. So 5050 so so but this is private. I will never do this with investors. But lucky enough now now we have 10 minutes left and I would say okay, let's take five minutes for, for, for questions for the people. So people if you have any questions for Kieran let us know but let's summarize the key things and I think no matter if you be forex trader, if you be futures trader, if you stock trader, if you ETF trader, data is key.

[00:49:42.14] - Speaker 2
Data is key. You need data no matter what, no matter if you need options data, no matter if you need market data. But the best cases connect each other so that you get the full overview of the market. And second Kieran and I think we both fighting really strong for this. We need a trading journal. And you must, this is a must. You, you must have a trading journal. And I think more important is if you want to become successful in the trading space like Kyrian or me. So we would never become successful without any verified tracking records. If we not will showing up in the market if we're not showing our trading skills not for one week, not for two weeks, for years. And as Kirian was mentioned so trading is not a sprint. Trading is a marathon. And if you be in a drawdown for like what Kyrian was doing from, from maybe a one year or 10 months, whatever. But you have to fight because he was thinking about hey man, I'm trading from for the next 30 years. This is only a little tiny window of my trading career. Everyone goes proof this we can go now to some ETF we can pick up their drawdown fast we will find any ETF we haven't drawn on maybe for, for six months, seven months easily, easily we will find this and I think Kirian that's one of the biggest points what do you think or did I miss something?

[00:51:17.12] - Speaker 2
What is for you to do the three most keys whatever trader should follow.

[00:51:23.03] - Speaker 3
If you think the the first thing that I would add to what you said was having a journal is great, reviewing it is better, right?

[00:51:32.04] - Speaker 2
Oh yes.

[00:51:37.14] - Speaker 3
A tick box exercise is pointless and this is why whilst I love what automated journals have done for a lot of people I also think it's created lazy traders who don't necessarily go back and check things or, or spend the time journaling So I, I've been trading about six years now properly you know and, and full time for coming up to four years this year I still use a spreadsheet I don't use a like an automated journal I use MyFXbook and Darwin X0 as well of course but I still journal every single trade with my same journal that I started with you know, six years ago. I've just added you know, new elements and new layers to it but there's, it's useless to me if you're not going to use it right? If I'm not going to use it so having a journal is good reviewing it is better.

[00:52:33.04] - Speaker 2
I think most people like when I was coming in the first time with journaling I was hating this for me journaling the classic journaling is a pain in the ass so if you write everything down oh I was taking the trade because I was seeing this I was seeing this, this then I was seeing oh man this is nothing for me that's too much work I don't want it I, I want family time I don't want sit down But I found out from me to set text so like what was the trading set up? How was I feeling? And trading time? Boom boom boom and if you have tax and you can take your trades this is really powerful because after this you can make statistic based on your text and, and this is, this is I think one of the first steps from trading journal if you be a lazy people like me don't write everything down like I don't know you don't want a diary. So it's like what do you think? So if people, some if we have lazy people who say oh journaling is nothing for me but they should start start is the first start to have tax where you, where you take your trades the good way.

[00:53:45.08] - Speaker 3
I'm gonna be a bit brutal here and I think if you're lazy, you shouldn't trade. I think if you're not, if you're not prepared to put the work in that others won't, you're never gonna have what others will have, Right? So for you to outperform me, you have to do everything that I do and more. You're not going to get there based on luck over an extended period of time. So you have to do everything I do and more. Now, if you can answer that question internally and say, am I doing everything so that nobody can outperform me? If you answer that as yes, fair play. If you say no, there's something else I can do, go and do it. Because journaling is the best example of this, actually. If you're trading a 500 pound or 500 account and every trade that you win gives you 10 pounds or $10, you might then look at the journaling process, which could take you five to 20 minutes, depending on how in depth you go. And you could go, I've just spent 20 minutes writing all of this stuff down for £10 or $10. Doesn't make sense.

[00:54:50.01] - Speaker 3
Why am I doing this? This is so boring. It doesn't serve me any benefit. Yada, yada, yada. Fast forward on five to ten years. Now you're trading with a million. Two million, five million. Let's say you're working, you know, a really serious professional level. Now, when you take a winning trade, you might be looking at 20, 30, 40,000. And now you've still got to spend the same 20 minutes journaling that trade. Now you go, all I've done today is watch a chart and I've made $30,000. Now I need to that that 20 minutes doesn't seem that bad when you say I've just made 30, 40, 25, $10,000. But when you say you've just made 5 or $10, it kind of seems, do I really have to go and journal now? But if you've made a significant amount of money, that 20 minutes is really, really key because you look at it and you go, well, all I've done today is took a, you know, executed a trade, watched a chart and then wrote some notes. And I've been paid X amount of thousands. So you have to look at that with scale as well. Yes, it might be boring, yes, it might be mundane, but believe me, in five years you're going to wish you'd have started five years ago.

[00:55:58.14] - Speaker 2
So yeah, you get me. Okay, good point. I'd be happy. Okay, so ladies and gentlemen, let us know if you have some questions. Fabio, maybe you have some questions for Kyrian?

[00:56:15.17] - Speaker 1
No, I think I love the point about data. I love the, your experience about hard working and I think it kind of summarizes exactly what also we are trying to do because it doesn't like trading is hard and you need to spend time to learn and there's people out there that are dedicating a lot of resources and it's gonna get more and more competitive. So I think it's key for everyone to spend as much time to develop an edge because we've seen it today with the, with the news about AI we need to be prepared for what's coming. And we, we can only do that by learning and you know, and building our own hedge because otherwise it's going to be very difficult over the next few years. And that's kind of like what we're trying to do here. I think.

[00:57:05.04] - Speaker 3
The prepared trader is the paid trader, right? You stay prepared, you stay ready and you're ready to adapt to anything that may happen. If you don't track things you don't know, you don't know how to change or how to perform in certain conditions, well, you're already on the back foot, yet you're competing with some of the smartest, richest, most aggressive people in the world who've got access to faster information, access to more capital, access to better people. And you still think that you can perform as well as those guys. Unfortunately. Sorry if I burst any bubbles. Unless you're working insanely hard, you're not going to compete at that level because these guys are ridiculously brutal and ruthless and they will eat you alive if you're not ready to put the work in. It's possible, don't get me wrong, but you've got to really, really, really want to over perform. Like I say, it's a performance based sport. You're only going to get better if you want to get better.

[00:57:59.26] - Speaker 2
So what is our goal as retail traders?

[00:58:02.29] - Speaker 3
Do less work for more reward?

[00:58:06.11] - Speaker 2
No, you have only one goal is, the only goal is you have to be whitewall or never and never anymore to deposit. So never. So your, your goal must be. I never deposit any funded account anymore. The only thing what I'm doing is I'm vital. So that's it. So boom. This, if you be on this stage, man, you get it and then you, you'll be ready for the Big league I think. And, and yeah man. Kyrian, I'm, I'm so thankful that you will be here. It was very nice. And and you give a clear idea why is this so important to have data and why is this so important to have a data provider who delivers you data on point where you can use and again Kirian, thank you.

[00:58:51.15] - Speaker 1
Yeah I appreciate, thank you for sharing.

[00:58:55.22] - Speaker 2
And Kirian for, for people who may be asking hey what I can find Kirano maybe you will share 12 minutes how people can find you.

[00:59:07.14] - Speaker 3
I mean I basically live under a rock right now. I've taken a step back under the rock. I, I well it's one thing I realized I needed to take a huge step back. I was getting distracted with certain things. So for the past six to six to 12 months I've kind of really really distanced myself. I'm always in the Dominic 0 discord server because I, I run that server so that's probably the easiest way to find contact chat to me. I run multiple live sessions a week over there as well so I can literally have you know like this face to face call or answer questions live and stuff but other than that I'm pretty much a ghost dude to be completely honest with you I'm, I'm not out and about there. I'm too, I'll be completely honest. I'm too focused on building my career and scaling my career as a trader right now that I, I literally dropped everything else that I do other than working with Darwinics I dropped everything else that I do to focus on that.

[01:00:06.11] - Speaker 2
So but, but Kyrian should I say something? I'm really proud to be one of the guy who's maybe some guy who was on your way so as you know so I think you need some, some guy and you need also some trading body who you can question someone I know Kirian I know I can write Kirian anytime any message but I, I have also to understand that he will not respond directly to me. No no you already you always respond three weeks later. Yeah but as you say so you focus on your trading career and this and I think this is something what is really great if you have access to someone who's really strong focus on his trading career and maybe you have also some trading body on your area where you can build some relationship that you can work together and and going the road together. But I highly believe we can only become strong as a team. Before I was met Juan all other one. Yeah Kyrian. Before I was meet Ben Before I was meet all the other crazy UK guys here. So you know what you can name it. And before I was met Fabio and mentor Q before I was met chat with trainers, I was a lonely wolf outside.

[01:01:38.00] - Speaker 2
I was thinking on my end, I can do everything alone. I don't need anyone. But now with all the relationship, what we have together and the partnership together, and I become more stronger as a trader, I was never thinking about this, and this is something where I'll be so proud. And again, thank you.

[01:02:00.05] - Speaker 3
I completely agree with that as well. I think you need somebody to at least run ideas past or, you know, pick you up when you're feeling bad and stuff. You know, even if. Even if your trades can completely differently from one another, having somebody with a similar vision and working on the same thing is. Is unparalleled in my opinion.

[01:02:18.07] - Speaker 2
So again, thank you. Fabio, you have the last word. So Kiran, last year, I have always the last word. So now. So my goal is as a trader, never have the last word. So thank you.

[01:02:33.18] - Speaker 1
Thank you, Kieran. I really appreciate it and hope to see you again soon in. In our channel and. Yeah, but thank you.

[01:02:40.27] - Speaker 3
I'm open to it anytime. You guys take care of yourself, all right?