How to Trade Crude Oil and Gold

Gold Playbook. How to create a Roadmap on GC

In this lesson, you’ll learn how to create a comprehensive trading roadmap for gold (GC) by combining multiple institutional-grade data layers to identify key support and resistance zones, helping you anticipate price movements with greater confidence.

We begin by analyzing the current market structure, where gold sits near the median line of a mapped channel, creating a 50/50 probability scenario for both upward and downward moves. The CTA models show metals including gold, silver, palladium, and aluminum all adding long positions, providing a directional bias. For the GCG February 2026 contract, the main gamma strike sits at 4,400, with additional levels at 4,350, 4,260, and support around 4,100.

The lesson emphasizes understanding gamma regimes across different expirations. For today’s expiration (less than 2% of gamma), the main strike is 4,350, with the market sitting at 4,230 in a negative gamma regime below 4,300. Tomorrow’s data shows 4,200 as put support, while crossing 4,330 moves into positive gamma regime with reduced volatility. Key magnetic zones include call resistance gamma walls, put supports, 0DTE levels, and HVL clusters between 4,240 to 4,252, along with GEX levels marking important zones.

For GLD (the gold ETF), the main volume strike is 410, with current positioning at 394.2. Key levels include 395 and 400 as immediate targets, with Friday’s expiration representing 45% of gamma concentrated at strikes 390, 395, 400, 405, and 410. The GVC (Gold Volatility Index) at 21.2 predicts a $16 move for the day, though significant economic data could extend this range.

The analysis also covers correlated markets, particularly the Dollar Index where CTA models show reduction of longs, and the Dollar/Japanese Yen pair sitting at a critical support zone near 153.4. A double bottom pattern on the Dollar Index with key levels at 97.9 (one day mean and blind spot 4) suggests that dollar weakness could support gold’s upside move.

To implement this roadmap approach, map your trend lines, identify gamma regime transitions, mark magnetic zones using strike clusters, and monitor GEX levels alongside blind spots and HVL to anticipate where price is likely to move and where acceleration may occur.

Video Chapters

  1. 00:00 – Introduction and previous day’s plan review
  2. 00:25 – Current market position and channel analysis
  3. 01:00 – CTA models and gamma exposure for GCG contract
  4. 04:22 – Magnetic zones, HVL clusters, and GEX levels
  5. 07:08 – GLD analysis with volume and open interest strikes
  6. 10:12 – Dollar Index correlation and support zones
  7. 11:41 – Dollar/Japanese Yen positioning and key levels

Key Takeaways

  1. Gold currently sits at the median line creating a 50/50 probability scenario, with CTA models showing metals adding long positions
  2. Understanding gamma regimes is critical: below 4,300 is negative gamma (choppy, extended moves), while above 4,330 is positive gamma (reduced…
Video Transcription

[00:00:03.23] - Speaker 1
Welcome Traders 16th December 2025 Please read our risk disclaimer and let's jump to our Gold morning session.

[00:00:25.05] - Speaker 1
So let's start as usually first thing first. If you remember yesterday our projection plan A not work but plan B Excellent. And where we are right now we are near exactly the lower band of our channel which we mapped no media line. Sorry. So we what it means for us plus minutes we have 50% going to the down and 50% going to the up.

[00:01:00.12] - Speaker 1
What we have near here one day mean excellent. So let's jump first to CTA models and later map what we have else in our minds. Gold adding steel long position Silver the same long perspective. Palladium also aluminum so metal steer growing in the long sides. Gamma exposure for GCG G contract February 2026 main strike 40400 later 45 a little bit below our main strike 404350 then we have 426050 plus minutes era and later often dropping below 4200.

[00:01:57.08] - Speaker 1
We have a gap and first support plus minutes around 4100. This is a bigger perspective but when we are jumping to the nearest expiration. So today expiring only less than 2% of Gamma Main Strike 4350 later 4330 then where we are 43 and below we are in negative gamma regime. So right now we are sitting on 42:30 so plus minutes right right now here later nothing especially so Looking at tomorrow data 42 another put support negative gamma regime and then we have a tiny profile if we come back main our strike right now should be 43 00. Oh what?

[00:02:57.10] - Speaker 1
Ah man. Sorry.

[00:03:02.09] - Speaker 1
What is this? I have some issue here. So right now we have 4310. Sorry. So looking at this I was checking that something is not correct with this 4310.

[00:03:15.14] - Speaker 1
So 4290 plus minutes 43 is our support. Then we have a little bit negative regime so this is choppy and we can expect extended moves into in both direction but crossing 43:30 plus minutes. Then we have man hours like 43:50 and we are jumping positive gamma regime so not such a big volatility Later a little bit gap 44 another day another perspective is main strikes around 43.50 and 44 support 4200 battleground plus minus 43 then we are in negative gamma regime above in positive gamma regime.

[00:04:22.09] - Speaker 1
Right now what we can expect. So first magnetic zone call resistance gamma wall put support 0dTe and HVL 0dTe later another magnet in cluster call resistance with one day max below one day mean and later we have cluster of hvl with blind spot 6 sitting around 4240 to 52 times GEX also important zone some from bigger perspective first there was resistance later should works like the support similar view we have here 40 to 80 plus minutes right now we are sitting in on Gags 4 looking at the structure what we can do Also let's mark trend line so how it looks right now that we didn't have triagonal so if yes and crossing this upper band then we should get also acceleration that could be our next confirmation from only price action movement and how it looks on our market Right now we are sitting between higher highs lower lows so we wait for confirmation forward signal but usually after sitting in that kind of box another move usually have acceleration is bigger one so be careful Today we have also very important data and not only a lot of stuff is going on so let's dive to GLD right now 394.2 Main volume strike 410 right now a little bit below we have 395 and above 325 open interest main strike 400 later 415, 420 and 390 right now we are plus minutes in this zone so if we stay in this zone with time we should also wait to get to 400 and perhaps with economic data which push later to the market Then perhaps we get acceleration where we exactly know where where is volume, where is open interest where are our magnetic points Gamma regime Where is changing and not only

[00:07:08.08] - Speaker 1
and take a look all expiration for GLD main strike 400395390 later above 405410415 each strike 5 points distance to each other so after crossing 395 where we can accept move to 400 so call resistance core resistance zero DPE gamma wall GEX 3 awesome. Another 405 risk triggers blind spot free GEX 6390 put support GEX 4 one day mean so I hope plan is easy to read what we can expect from GLD right now and looking to the nearest expiration so on Wednesday expiring less than 1% but take a look on Friday 45% of gamma what kind of strike main we have 390395 main one later 400405 for 10 a little one fella sitting around 385.

[00:08:26.22] - Speaker 1
So let's match this one more time on our charts right now 390 395, 400 405.

[00:08:49.21] - Speaker 1
This right now is our Plan jumping to GVC Gold Volatility Index 21.2 telling us that as the last few days plus minus move predicted for today should have $16 but with that kind of data I will be not surprised that we will get more than that kind of value and let's jump to our dollar index so what we have here Dollar reduction of longs Yen adding to the longs awesome. So let's jump and take a look what is going on on dollar index so with today data it also is important to the dollar and not only it will be also pushing you about interest cuts in the futures so let's map this together what is going on on our charts? Boom. First first thing first simple move trend line Voila. Later what we have here plus minutes double bottom Is this hot?

[00:10:12.12] - Speaker 1
Awesome. But if we cross this then we should expect acceleration to the downside many zones 97.9 we have zone one day mean and blind spot four later blind spot five with HVL 98 right now we are sitting on GEX one with blind sport 10 and not only above one day mix one day max call resistance call resistance zero DTE gamma wall and blind spot eight 98.6 plus minutes and above do we have something interesting? Only two times GEX so right now our look to dollar index is right now like this if we drop then excellent zone first support Then we have a gap maybe we can cover this and where is the zone between GAG 3 and GAGS 5 so plus minus main strike 97.7 on dollar and if dollar usually drops this support gold going to the upside so connect the dots Ladies and gents be prepared also react.

[00:11:41.11] - Speaker 1
Dollar Japanese Yen where we are right now in the blue channel A little bit above below median line 1 to 1 correction ending on 1:53.4 plus minutes so a little bit below HVL blind spot 8G1 one day mean 154 interesting place why?

[00:12:10.01] - Speaker 1
If we are looking from the bigger picture here we are sitting for a long time so this is our main support from my perspective later crossing this and especially HVL then perhaps we will going to GEX 4 where is extended move from this correction but if we come back above yellow line then what we can expect coming back to this cluster amazing. Hvl 1 day max blind spot 2 and blind spot 3 plus minus 155.75 till 156 later above call resistance call resistance 0dte median price 157.5 our resistance. So then we are coming back near last highs above GX5 and GX9 as another target. So if you have some questions right now, I will be waiting. If not, remember take a look to the calendar.

[00:13:16.13] - Speaker 1
A lot of important data today is pushed to the market and not only.

[00:13:28.09] - Speaker 1
Thank you Roland. So if we haven't got any questions, see you later. And I will only mention you that today NQ session is on X on YouTube. We are live with Patrick, so stay tuned. See you later.

[00:13:46.12] - Speaker 1
Bye bye.