MenthorQ Onboarding

Crypto Models

In this lesson, you’ll discover how to navigate and utilize MenthorQ’s comprehensive crypto analysis tools through our dashboard. We walk you through the complete crypto menu structure, including the market summary, quant models, and option data sections that bring together all the coins we cover with their performance metrics and proprietary indicators.

The Q scores are our proprietary indicators that merge momentum, volatility, and option data into an easy-to-read format ranging from 0 to 5. The momentum score shows trend strength where 0 is bearish and 5 is bullish. The volatility score measures market stability, with 0 indicating low volatility (favorable for trend following) and 5 indicating high volatility (suitable for mean reversion or option selling). The option score reflects sentiment from the options market, where values greater than 3 signal bullish sentiment.

You can combine these scores strategically by looking for an option score greater than 3 to identify bullish sentiment, confirming with a momentum score greater than 3 for trend validation, and checking for a volatility score less than 2 or 3 to ensure market stability. Our dashboard also includes the RSI indicator, direction, and risk sentiment indicator to provide a complete view of the crypto environment. For example, Bitcoin currently shows a momentum score of 5 indicating a very strong uptrend, an option score of 4 suggesting strong bullish sentiment, but the risk indicator has moved close to zero, signaling entry into a risk off environment.

The swing model forecasts the closing price in the next five days or 20 days, providing a lower band and risk trigger level. For Bitcoin, the model showed a 90% success rate where price closed above the lower band and an 82% success rate where price closed below the risk trigger over the past 124 days. Additional tools include our net gum exposure chart, volatility surface, volatility smile curve, and SKU chart for understanding out of the money option pricing bias.

To get started, access the crypto menu on the left side of your dashboard where you’ll find the market summary, quant models, and option data. These levels and indicators are also available through your trading platform and TradingView for seamless integration into your trading workflow.

Video Chapters

  1. 00:00 – Introduction to the crypto dashboard and market summary
  2. 01:05 – Q scores overview and proprietary indicator explanation
  3. 02:07 – Understanding momentum, volatility, and option scores
  4. 04:46 – Analyzing risk on, directional bias, and QRSI charts
  5. 06:54 – Net gum exposure and option positioning
  6. 07:47 – Swing model forecasting and success rates

Key Takeaways

  1. The Q scores range from 0 to 5 and combine momentum, volatility, and option data for comprehensive crypto analysis
  2. Look for an option score greater than 3, momentum score greater than 3, and volatility score less than 3 for aligned directional trade setups
  3. The swing model provides lower band and risk trigger levels with historical success rates of 90% and 82% respectively
  4. Monitor the risk sentiment indicator to identify risk on or risk off environments that impact crypto performance

Additional Resources

Video Transcription

[00:00:02.05] - Speaker 1
All right, so let's go into the dashboard for those who are joining today or for those who are already customers. You now have basically our crypto menu on the left hand side and you have three options here you have our market summary, we have our quant models and our option data. So let's start with really the market summary, right, the market summary is really like your first step to understand the crypto space. So here what we have is we bring it all together so we see all the different coins that we cover. We obviously see their performance across time.

[00:00:40.10] - Speaker 1
And then what we see is we have our quant model, so we have our RSI indicator, our direction and our risk sentiment indicator. So you can see that we are in kind of a bearish risk environment for crypto currently. And then of course we have our direction as neutral for those coins. And here you can put it all together and understand where to go. So here we see it all in one place.

[00:01:05.18] - Speaker 1
Next thing we want to go onto our option data. So we click on our option menu right here and let's open up our Bitcoin here so we can start with our Q score. So here we open Bitcoin, we see our Q score at the top here and then we can also see the charts right here. If you want to add more modules to the dashboard, you can find all the relevant models for crypto right here. So we have our netdex, our blind spots, swing levels and more.

[00:01:41.27] - Speaker 1
But let's start with the Q scores. Right? So the Q scores are our proprietary indicator and they're built basically to merge momentum volatility option data in an easy format. It's the number from 0 to 5 and basically really they can help you understand what's going on in the, in the option space at the crypto level right there. So let's start with the with momentum score.

[00:02:07.13] - Speaker 1
The momentum score goes from 0 to 5 where 0 is bearish and 5 is bullish. So right now on Bitcoin we can see that we're still in a very, very strong trend. Our Momentum score is 5. So from a technical standpoint we are in a very strong uptrend.

[00:02:28.22] - Speaker 1
The second score is our volatility score also goes from 0 to 5. In this case, 0 means a low, low volatility environment means that there is no, not a lot of fear in the market in space. A five means that we have a high volatility environment that can lead to, to a lot of unpredictable moves. So low volatility score can be good for trend following strategies, while A High volatility score can be a mean reversion, setup or even like using options for selling opportunities, because of course, as volatility grows, the option premium is also much higher. And then we have our option score, which is also going from zero to five.

[00:03:20.01] - Speaker 1
Zero is a very bearish sentiment. Five is a very strong bullish sentiment. So as we can see here, we are still at the four levels. We can see it at the top. We have a very high option score.

[00:03:32.20] - Speaker 1
On Bitcoin, we are four. So this suggests really a strong bullish market from the option standpoint. So how can you use them all together? Right. So if you have an option score which is greater than 3, then that can be a very good sign because this can be a start of a bullish sentiment.

[00:03:52.24] - Speaker 1
You also want to confirm that with our momentum score. So if your momentum score is greater than 3, then that can confirm your trend. You also then want to combine that with the volatility measure. So if we have a low volatility score, less than three or less than two, maybe that means that the market is stable and there are better odds for the trend to be able to persist. Right.

[00:04:18.25] - Speaker 1
So when all of these three are aligned, you can kind of like look at potential directional trades. And of course, we can also combine that with other tools. The next step is we want to look at our quant model. So let's click on again on Bitcoin here and let's go into, in this case, we're going to go on the quant section. So we see again our Q scores and we now have our charts.

[00:04:46.00] - Speaker 1
We have our risk on our directional and our QR side. Right. So the first thing we want to know is looking at the risk on. So what's very interesting is that we are now kind of like in a risk off environment. So, so we see it right here.

[00:05:03.06] - Speaker 1
The risk con indicator has gone from a green area. Now we are close to zero. So we kind of started really entering the risk off environment in the last few days. In the last couple of days. So you want to use that to confirm.

[00:05:19.09] - Speaker 1
Right. So why do we use this? Because if we start becoming in a risk off environment, then the crypto market will potentially suffer more than maybe other assets. Right. So in this chart you can see if we are in kind of like a risk on, risk off scenario.

[00:05:37.18] - Speaker 1
So even though the option market is suggesting that we are still bullish on bitcoin, we need to be careful because we might be entering a risk off scenario. The next thing is the direction. So we want to look at the directional bias. So we went from a direction of 2 to now a direction of 0 in a matter of a couple of days. So we were in a very bullish environment a few days ago.

[00:06:00.16] - Speaker 1
As you can see here. Now, again, the score kind of went to zero. So we want to monitor how this evolves over the next few days because that can provide us an idea like are we entering a reversal market or are we still in a bullish trend? And then finally, of course, the rsi. So we want to look at the RSI zones.

[00:06:21.28] - Speaker 1
Of course, we don't really have a clear signal at this stage. RSI QRSI is at 40. We need to monitor these, like, overextended areas right here to potentially get another additional tool coming from our technical models.

[00:06:39.19] - Speaker 1
Next, we move back to our dashboard and we look at the options data. So let's go back here and let's go back to Bitcoin.

[00:06:54.27] - Speaker 1
The next thing is, of course, our net gum exposure chart. This is the same chart that you guys have been using on all the other assets. We want to monitor where basically the positioning is going coming from the option market. We want to understand where our core resistance, our put support are. And then we can go in into the levels.

[00:07:15.19] - Speaker 1
We can also look at multiple expirations, so we can kind of see what is the sentiment across different expirations right here. We can also look at our matrix to understand all the option chain coming from the derivatives market. We have our volatility surface and we can look at different models. Next, we also want to look at our swing model. So this is why this is very important, because our swing model can be applied to all our crypto assets.

[00:07:47.10] - Speaker 1
And basically we provide it in a similar way as we do with stocks, ETFs and indices, where you have our lower band, our risk trigger. And the goal is really to forecast the closing price of the asset in the next five days or the next 20 days. So in this case, we're still kind of like in a bullish bias where we have our lower band, which is 1, 102,000 for the next five days. Why is this relevant? Because you can see the success rate of the swing model right here.

[00:08:18.17] - Speaker 1
So there was a 90% success rate over the past 124 days, where the price in five days in the future closed above these lower bands area. So obviously this can become a very, very important area. And of course, we have our risk trigger as well, which is 114. Why is this relevant? Because again, the model was successful in 82% of the cases.

[00:08:42.07] - Speaker 1
That means that on 82% of the days, the price closed below our risk trigger level five days in the future. So monitoring these levels can be very important. And those will be also available through your trading platform, through TradingView and so on.

[00:08:58.25] - Speaker 1
Next, we can look at more advanced analytics. We can look at the volatility smile curve to understand where volatility is going across different strike prices. So you can see that here. And then of course, we can look at our SKU chart that can tell you basically if out of the money options are pricing in a more call bias environment or a more put bias environment. And you can see it right here.

[00:09:28.25] - Speaker 1
And you can see how this evolves over time.