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In this lesson, you’ll discover one of our most powerful trading tools: the one day expected move indicator. This volatility-based indicator provides you with an estimated range showing how far an asset is likely to move in either direction during the trading day, giving you clearly defined one day max and one day min levels.
What makes this indicator particularly valuable is that it’s based on option positioning and forward looking volatility, not guesswork. The one day expected move helps you identify potential trading zones and serves as an effective trade management tool. You can use these levels to set profit targets, identify reversal zones, place stop losses, or spot potential breakout areas. When price breaks outside this range, we often see explosive moves that create significant trading opportunities.
Our backtesting data from four years of history on SPX demonstrates the indicator’s reliability. The price closed above the one day minimum on 87% of trading days and below the one day max on 85% of days. This statistical edge gives you confidence when planning your trades around these levels.
The lesson shows practical examples from April 2, 2025 trading on both NQ and ES. In these examples, the market opened lower, touched the one day min level, reversed upward to reach the one day max, and then reversed back. You could have entered at the one day minimum using the one day max as your take profit target, or if you missed the initial move, entered a reversal trade at the one day max using other levels for profit targets.
All backtesting results and historical data are available on our website, giving you full transparency into how these levels have performed across different market conditions. This indicator works particularly well on very strong trending days when breaks of the one day max or one day min can signal explosive continuation moves, providing interesting entry opportunities for breakout traders.
Video Chapters
00:15 – Introduction to one day expected move indicator
00:39 – Why volatility indicators matter for trading
01:10 – How to use the indicator for profit targets and stop losses
01:44 – Four years of backtesting results on SPX
02:27 – Live trade examples on NQ and ES
Key Takeaways
The one day expected move indicator provides estimated price range based on option positioning and forward looking volatility
Backtesting shows price closed above the one day min 87% of the time and below the one day max 85% of the time over four years
Use these levels for profit targets, reversal zones, stop losses, or breakout entries
Breaks outside the expected move range often signal explosive trending moves
Video Transcription
[00:00:15.13] - Speaker 1 The next level we're going to go into is a very, very important level. And it's one of the key indicators that we provide which is is our one day expected move indicator. So the one day expected move indicator tells you an estimated range on how far the asset is likely to move in either direction. So we have our one day max and our one domain. Why is this important?
[00:00:39.18] - Speaker 1 Because this is a volatility indicator. It can tell you how far the market can go and it can tell you also where are some areas where you could potentially plan a trade or if you are in a trade, how can you use those levels as your trade match trade management tool or stop loss tool? Why does it matter? Again it's based on option positioning, forward looking volatility. So it's not really a guesswork, it's really like based on data.
[00:01:10.06] - Speaker 1 And also when we break outside this range we can always see some explosive moves and we're going to show you some back testing results. And again how can you use it? You can use it to set up your profit targets or reversal zones. You can actually use them as stop loss and also you can use them as potential breakout area. So if we are in a very strong trending day, a break of the one day max or a break of the one day min can actually become a very very interesting area to enter the trade as well.
[00:01:44.09] - Speaker 1 Let's look at some backtesting. This is all available on our website. We are looking at four years of history and we've shown this before. So if you guys have seen this before, we're just going to repeat the importance because what the data is telling us that if we look at four years of history on option positioning on SPX, the price of SPX closed above the one day minimum on 87% of the cases of the days over those four years and closed below the one day max on 85% of the days. So when we look at some trade examples you can see that here we are looking at I believe is NQ.
[00:02:27.17] - Speaker 1 This was April 2, 2025 Market open lower, we touch our one the mean, we reverse and again how could you play this data? You could have jumped in the trade are the one the minimum and you could have used the one the max as your take profit target. Or if you missed that move you could have actually enter a reversal trade at the 1 the max and use the other levels as your as your take profit target. Same example, this was ES on the same day. Again same thing.
[00:03:02.19] - Speaker 1 We touched the one the mean, we went all the way to the one, the max, and then we reverse back. So this is a very important level. Very, very key for us. It.
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